5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $228.13 (banked floor $226.50) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,609/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $69/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,858 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 4 × $197.50 | 80% | $5,400 | $1,540 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $197.50 | 72% | $5,523 | $1,044 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $225 | 17 Jul | 4d | 21.1% | 99% | 1% | $10 | $75 | -$5,325 | $303 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $225 21.1% OTM over spot $185.87 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $10 credit for the 4d cycle → $75/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $225) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $225.12) 99% EV / mo +$70 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,773 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$499 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $247 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.20/sh now → $5.09 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $225 is $3 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $225.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $225): -$303 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $225): -$989 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-983 (+$20,874 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56, the opportunity cost of earning $75/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.3% | 91% | 19% | $395 | $2,963 | -$2,437 | $11,171 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $205 10.3% OTM over spot $185.87 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.85 mid) = $395 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,963/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $205.85) 92% EV / mo +$1,598 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,145 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,924 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $232 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.56/sh now → $4.64 mid-life (likely $4.23–$7.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 373 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $209 (overshoots $4.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $23 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $205.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $205): -$11,171 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,862 (+$10,995 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,935, the opportunity cost of earning $2,963/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $202.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.9% | 88% | 25% | $515 | $3,862 | -$1,538 | $12,301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 8.9% OTM over spot $185.87 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.09 mid) = $515 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,862/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $203.59) 89% EV / mo +$1,803 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.7-2.7] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 73% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,386 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,776 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $229 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.48/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $4.42–$8.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 485 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $207 (overshoots $4.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $26 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $203.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$12,301 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,992 (+$9,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,065, the opportunity cost of earning $3,862/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $197.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.3% | 80% | 29% | $720 | $5,400 | — | $11,533 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $197.50 6.3% OTM over spot $185.87 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.85 mid) = $720 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $199.35) 83% EV / mo +$1,887 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~9.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,496 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,067 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $232 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.32/sh now → $4.47 mid-life (likely $4.81–$7.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $202 (overshoots $4.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $31 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.80 collected) or spot ≥ $199.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $197.50): -$11,533 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $225): -$247 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,471 (+$10,386 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,544, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.6% | 69% | 63% | $1,500 | $11,250 | +$5,850 | $16,316 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 3.6% OTM over spot $185.87 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.20 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $195.70) 76% EV / mo +$2,697 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~12.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,266 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$677 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.16/sh now → $4.35 mid-life (likely $5.15–$8.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,379 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $197 (overshoots $4.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $36 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $195.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$16,316 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,007 (+$5,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,080, the opportunity cost of earning $11,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $232.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 25.1% | 97% | 7% | $38 | $104 | -$5,419 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $232.50 25.1% OTM over spot $185.87 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid) = $38 credit for the 11d cycle → $104/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $232.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $232.98) 97% EV / mo +$61 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.0] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,365 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$760 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $242 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.28/sh now → $7.98 mid-life (likely $5.98–$9.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 98 simulated challenges: the $232 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $238 (overshoots $5.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $232.50 is at/above CC-SS $228.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $232.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $232)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $232.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $225): -$989 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-680 (+$21,178 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$247, the opportunity cost of earning $104/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $217.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 17.0% | 91% | 18% | $535 | $1,459 | -$4,064 | $4,781 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $217.50 17.0% OTM over spot $185.87 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.19 mid) = $535 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,459/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $217.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $218.69) 92% EV / mo +$644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.2] median · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,762 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,197 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $229 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.55/sh now → $7.46 mid-life (likely $5.81–$10.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $218 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $222 (overshoots $4.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $217.50 is $11 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.07 collected) or spot ≥ $218.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $218)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $217.50): -$4,781 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,472 (+$17,385 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,545, the opportunity cost of earning $1,459/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.9% | 78% | 45% | $1,500 | $4,091 | -$1,432 | $11,316 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 8.9% OTM over spot $185.87 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.25 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $205.75) 82% EV / mo +$1,130 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,023 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,974 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.82/sh now → $6.95 mid-life (likely $7.34–$10.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,033 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $207 (overshoots $4.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $26 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $205.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$11,316 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,007 (+$10,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,080, the opportunity cost of earning $4,091/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $197.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.3% | 72% | 48% | $2,025 | $5,523 | — | $13,291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $197.50 6.3% OTM over spot $185.87 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.38 mid) = $2,025 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,523/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $201.88) 78% EV / mo +$1,106 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,802 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,363 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $224 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.58/sh now → $6.78 mid-life (likely $7.84–$11.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,454 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $202 (overshoots $4.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $31 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.01/sh (~25% of the $4.05 collected) or spot ≥ $201.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $197.50): -$13,291 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,982 (+$8,875 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,055, the opportunity cost of earning $5,523/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $185 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.5% | 51% | 99+% | $4,325 | $11,795 | +$6,273 | $17,241 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 0.5% ITM over spot $185.87 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $9.05 mid) = $4,325 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,795/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $194.05) 66% EV / mo +$1,046 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,151 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.97/sh now → $6.35 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $43 below CC-SS $228.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.16/sh (~25% of the $8.65 collected) or spot ≥ $194.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,858 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,167 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$17,241 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,932 (+$4,925 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-927 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,005, the opportunity cost of earning $11,795/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.049 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,167 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-927
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $197.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 4/5 | $5,400 | $5,511 | 80% | 83% | +$1,887 | -$11,533 | 67.8% | $-11,471 (vs do-nothing $-10,544) |
| $195 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 4/5 | $6,990 | $7,101 | 75% | 80% | +$1,992 | -$12,321 | 72.5% | $-12,259 (vs do-nothing $-11,332) |
| $202.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 5/5 | $5,417 | $5,347 | 72% | 78% | +$1,170 | -$9,566 | 56.3% | $-9,257 (vs do-nothing $-8,330) |
| $197.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 5/5 | $5,523 | $5,453 | 72% | 78% | +$1,106 | -$13,291 | 78.2% | $-12,982 (vs do-nothing $-12,055) |
| $200 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/5 | $6,000 | $5,931 | 69% | 76% | +$1,200 | -$10,466 | 61.6% | $-10,157 (vs do-nothing $-9,230) |
| $192.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/5 | $6,750 | $7,041 | 69% | 76% | +$1,618 | -$9,790 | 57.6% | $-9,975 (vs do-nothing $-9,048) |
| $195 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 5/5 | $6,273 | $6,203 | 68% | 75% | +$924 | -$14,266 | 83.9% | $-13,957 (vs do-nothing $-13,030) |
| $197.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 5/5 | $6,625 | $6,556 | 67% | 75% | +$1,210 | -$11,341 | 66.7% | $-11,032 (vs do-nothing $-10,105) |
| $195 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 4/5 | $5,833 | $5,944 | 64% | 73% | +$959 | -$9,753 | 57.4% | $-9,691 (vs do-nothing $-8,764) |
| $192.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 4/5 | $6,109 | $6,220 | 64% | 73% | +$960 | -$12,013 | 70.7% | $-11,951 (vs do-nothing $-11,024) |
| $190 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 2/5 | $5,775 | $6,246 | 63% | 72% | +$1,174 | -$6,857 | 40.3% | $-7,289 (vs do-nothing $-6,362) |
| $192.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 4/5 | $6,400 | $6,511 | 61% | 72% | +$928 | -$10,413 | 61.3% | $-10,351 (vs do-nothing $-9,424) |
| $190 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 4/5 | $6,982 | $7,092 | 60% | 71% | +$828 | -$12,693 | 74.7% | $-12,631 (vs do-nothing $-11,704) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $190 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.50 | 4/5 | $7,000 | $7,111 | 58% | 71% | +$874 | -$11,053 | 65.0% | $-10,991 (vs do-nothing $-10,064) |
| $187.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 2/5 | $6,975 | $7,446 | 56% | 69% | +$898 | -$7,197 | 42.3% | $-7,629 (vs do-nothing $-6,702) |
| $187.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.70 | 3/5 | $5,850 | $6,141 | 55% | 69% | +$720 | -$8,680 | 51.1% | $-8,865 (vs do-nothing $-7,938) |
| $187.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 3/5 | $6,177 | $6,468 | 55% | 69% | +$701 | -$9,925 | 58.4% | $-10,110 (vs do-nothing $-9,183) |
| $185 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.90 | 3/5 | $6,450 | $6,741 | 52% | 68% | +$739 | -$9,070 | 53.4% | $-9,255 (vs do-nothing $-8,328) |
| $185 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 3/5 | $7,077 | $7,368 | 51% | 66% | +$627 | -$10,345 | 60.9% | $-10,530 (vs do-nothing $-9,603) |
| $182.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.00 | 3/5 | $7,000 | $7,291 | 49% | 67% | +$660 | -$9,490 | 55.8% | $-9,675 (vs do-nothing $-8,748) |
| $185 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/5 | $8,550 | $9,021 | 49% | 65% | +$676 | -$7,487 | 44.0% | $-7,919 (vs do-nothing $-6,992) |
| $182.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 2/5 | $5,427 | $5,898 | 46% | 64% | +$403 | -$7,137 | 42.0% | $-7,569 (vs do-nothing $-6,642) |
| $182.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 1/5 | $5,362 | $6,013 | 42% | 63% | +$363 | -$3,848 | 22.6% | $-4,528 (vs do-nothing $-3,601) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.