5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $227.74 (banked floor $226.11) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,553/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $107/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,127 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 5 × $197.50 | 88% | $5,700 | $2,412 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 5 × $195 | 73% | $5,850 | $1,244 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $227.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 24.3% | 99+% | 0% | $12 | $120 | -$5,580 | $85 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $227.50 24.3% OTM over spot $183.09 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $12 credit for the 3d cycle → $120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $227.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $227.54) 99+% EV / mo +$119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $162 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,977 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $249 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.97 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $227.50 is $0 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $227.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $228)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $227.50): -$85 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $225): -$233 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3 (+$23,124 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$848, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 3d | 9.2% | 91% | 18% | $430 | $4,300 | -$1,400 | $13,441 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 9.2% OTM over spot $183.09 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.89 mid) = $430 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $200.89) 92% EV / mo +$2,911 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.8] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,932 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,756 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $227 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.18/sh now → $4.37 mid-life (likely $4.15–$7.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 302 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $204 (overshoots $4.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $28 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $200.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$13,441 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,126 (+$10,001 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,275, the opportunity cost of earning $4,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $197.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 7.9% | 88% | 15% | $570 | $5,700 | — | $14,551 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $197.50 7.9% OTM over spot $183.09 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.20 mid) = $570 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $198.70) 90% EV / mo +$3,497 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,497 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,589 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $227 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.11/sh now → $4.32 mid-life (likely $4.31–$8.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 457 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $202 (overshoots $4.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $30 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $198.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $197.50): -$14,551 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,236 (+$8,891 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,385, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $190 | 17 Jul | 3d | 3.8% | 72% | 56% | $1,108 | $11,080 | +$5,380 | $13,989 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $190 3.8% OTM over spot $183.09 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $2.83 mid) = $1,108 credit for the 3d cycle → $11,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $192.82) 79% EV / mo +$4,776 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.1] median · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~14.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,723 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$553 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $229 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.87/sh now → $4.15 mid-life (likely $4.83–$8.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,114 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $194 (overshoots $4.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $38 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.69/sh (~25% of the $2.77 collected) or spot ≥ $192.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $190): -$13,989 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $225): -$233 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,907 (+$9,220 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,056, the opportunity cost of earning $11,080/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $232.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 27.0% | 98% | 4% | $45 | $135 | -$5,715 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $232.50 27.0% OTM over spot $183.09 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.27 mid) = $45 credit for the 10d cycle → $135/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $232.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $232.77) 98% EV / mo +$69 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $876 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,292 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $239 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.01/sh now → $7.79 mid-life (likely $5.56–$9.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 94 simulated challenges: the $232 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $238 (overshoots $5.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $232.50 is at/above CC-SS $227.74: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $232.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $232)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $232.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $225): -$466 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-152 (+$22,976 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$700, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 16.1% | 91% | 18% | $540 | $1,620 | -$4,230 | $7,081 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $212.50 16.1% OTM over spot $183.09 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.17 mid) = $540 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $213.67) 92% EV / mo +$846 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.8] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,159 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,020 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $224 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.07/sh now → $7.12 mid-life (likely $6.49–$10.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 464 simulated challenges: the $212 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $217 (overshoots $4.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $212.50 is $15 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $213.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $212.50): -$7,081 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,766 (+$16,361 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,915, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $200 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.2% | 80% | 41% | $1,370 | $4,110 | -$1,740 | $12,501 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 9.2% OTM over spot $183.09 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.85 mid) = $1,370 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,110/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $202.85) 84% EV / mo +$1,559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.2] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,157 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,981 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $219 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.47/sh now → $6.70 mid-life (likely $7.02–$10.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,074 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $205 (overshoots $4.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $28 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.69/sh (~25% of the $2.74 collected) or spot ≥ $202.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$12,501 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,186 (+$10,941 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,335, the opportunity cost of earning $4,110/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $195 | 24 Jul | 10d | 6.5% | 73% | 47% | $1,950 | $5,850 | — | $14,421 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $195 6.5% OTM over spot $183.09 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $4.03 mid) = $1,950 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $199.03) 79% EV / mo +$1,862 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,351 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,317 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.24/sh now → $6.53 mid-life (likely $7.54–$10.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,410 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $199 (overshoots $4.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $33 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $199.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $195): -$14,421 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,106 (+$9,021 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,255, the opportunity cost of earning $5,850/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $185 | 24 Jul | 10d | 1.0% | 56% | 93% | $3,700 | $11,100 | +$5,250 | $17,671 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 1.0% OTM over spot $183.09 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $7.58 mid) = $3,700 credit for the 10d cycle → $11,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $192.57) 68% EV / mo +$1,082 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-3.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~15.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,311 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$601 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $219 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.76/sh now → $6.20 mid-life (likely $8.55–$11.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,292 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $190 (overshoots $4.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $43 below CC-SS $227.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.85/sh (~25% of the $7.40 collected) or spot ≥ $192.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $226.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,127 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,442 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$17,671 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,356 (+$5,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-851 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,505, the opportunity cost of earning $11,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.050 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,442 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-851
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $197.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 5/5 | $5,700 | $5,593 | 88% | 90% | +$3,497 | -$14,551 | 85.6% | $-14,236 (vs do-nothing $-13,385) |
| $195 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 4/5 | $6,080 | $6,096 | 84% | 87% | +$3,328 | -$12,489 | 73.5% | $-12,407 (vs do-nothing $-11,556) |
| $192.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.06 | 3/5 | $6,180 | $6,319 | 79% | 83% | +$3,019 | -$9,955 | 58.6% | $-10,106 (vs do-nothing $-9,255) |
| $195 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/5 | $5,850 | $5,743 | 73% | 79% | +$1,862 | -$14,421 | 84.8% | $-14,106 (vs do-nothing $-13,255) |
| $200 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 5/5 | $5,426 | $5,320 | 73% | 79% | +$1,506 | -$10,796 | 63.5% | $-10,481 (vs do-nothing $-9,630) |
| $190 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 2/5 | $5,540 | $5,802 | 72% | 79% | +$2,388 | -$6,994 | 41.1% | $-7,379 (vs do-nothing $-6,528) |
| $197.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 5/5 | $6,044 | $5,937 | 70% | 77% | +$1,563 | -$11,696 | 68.8% | $-11,381 (vs do-nothing $-10,530) |
| $192.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 4/5 | $5,520 | $5,536 | 69% | 77% | +$1,570 | -$12,257 | 72.1% | $-12,175 (vs do-nothing $-11,324) |
| $195 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 4/5 | $5,400 | $5,416 | 68% | 76% | +$1,313 | -$10,037 | 59.0% | $-9,955 (vs do-nothing $-9,104) |
| $187.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 2/5 | $7,100 | $7,362 | 65% | 75% | +$2,512 | -$7,338 | 43.2% | $-7,723 (vs do-nothing $-6,872) |
| $190 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 4/5 | $6,480 | $6,496 | 65% | 74% | +$1,626 | -$12,937 | 76.1% | $-12,855 (vs do-nothing $-12,004) |
| $192.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 4/5 | $5,965 | $5,981 | 65% | 74% | +$1,318 | -$10,717 | 63.0% | $-10,635 (vs do-nothing $-9,784) |
| $190 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.35 | 4/5 | $6,600 | $6,616 | 62% | 73% | +$1,334 | -$11,357 | 66.8% | $-11,275 (vs do-nothing $-10,424) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/5 | $5,715 | $5,854 | 61% | 72% | +$1,277 | -$10,168 | 59.8% | $-10,319 (vs do-nothing $-9,468) |
| $187.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 3/5 | $5,532 | $5,672 | 59% | 71% | +$1,070 | -$8,938 | 52.6% | $-9,089 (vs do-nothing $-8,238) |
| $185 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $9,100 | $9,362 | 58% | 71% | +$2,619 | -$7,638 | 44.9% | $-8,023 (vs do-nothing $-7,172) |
| $185 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/5 | $6,660 | $6,799 | 56% | 68% | +$649 | -$10,603 | 62.4% | $-10,754 (vs do-nothing $-9,903) |
| $185 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.45 | 3/5 | $6,062 | $6,201 | 56% | 70% | +$1,037 | -$9,388 | 55.2% | $-9,539 (vs do-nothing $-8,688) |
| $182.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.55 | 3/5 | $6,644 | $6,783 | 53% | 68% | +$1,005 | -$9,808 | 57.7% | $-9,959 (vs do-nothing $-9,108) |
| $182.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/5 | $7,740 | $7,879 | 51% | 66% | +$681 | -$10,993 | 64.7% | $-11,144 (vs do-nothing $-10,293) |
| $182.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 1/5 | $5,700 | $6,085 | 49% | 68% | +$1,265 | -$3,954 | 23.3% | $-4,572 (vs do-nothing $-3,721) |
| $180 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.90 | 3/5 | $7,359 | $7,498 | 49% | 67% | +$1,052 | -$10,153 | 59.7% | $-10,304 (vs do-nothing $-9,453) |
| $180 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.70 | 2/5 | $5,820 | $6,082 | 46% | 65% | +$743 | -$7,608 | 44.8% | $-7,993 (vs do-nothing $-7,142) |
| $180 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 1/5 | $7,100 | $7,485 | 41% | 64% | +$1,220 | -$4,064 | 23.9% | $-4,682 (vs do-nothing $-3,831) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.