FORTRESS FIGHT: QCOM @ $189.46

BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $228.61 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

QCOM @ $189.46 UNDERWATER $34.54 (15.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

QCOM reports 2026-07-30 (Thu), in 16 days. The recommended CC (17d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-30.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $228.61 (banked floor $226.99) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $190 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $88.967/sh)

SP: $210 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $55.902/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.897/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$77,000	(ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$9,882/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$214/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-20,280	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,941/mo

HEDGE COVER
$214/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$9,882/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $17,000

ML VELOCITY
7.8 mo to earn back $77,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $228.61 (probe: $227.5C 17d) still earns $2,047/mo (21% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$846

Hole (after banked)

$19,434

was $20,280 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,525

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$228.61 → $226.99

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026	U18827291	$3.05	$1,525	2026-07-06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $258.36 (+36%) · daily UBB $222.59 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-30: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $228.61 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $230 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $230)

88%

Touch odds

25%

Per cycle

$1,040

Income / mo

$1,835

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $235 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $235)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$840

Income / mo

$1,482

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $232.50 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $232.50)

96%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$135

Income / mo

$405

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.43/sh now → $7.38 mid-life (likely $5.28–$9.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 140 simulated challenges: the $232 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $237 (overshoots $4.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$232	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$3.05/sh	+$1,525 cycle +$1,660 [+$1,509…+$2,325] · 99% credit	66% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$238	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.66/sh	+$332 cycle +$467 [+$96…+$1,005] · 81% credit	70% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$238	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.66/sh	+$332 cycle +$467 [+$96…+$1,005] · 81% credit	70% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$241	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.14/sh	-$69 cycle +$66 [-$380…+$602] · 52% credit	72% surv 63%
budget: banked $135 debit $69 (51% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,048/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.048 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,517 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,280

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$202.50	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.14	5/5	$5,700	$5,486	83%	85%	+$1,179	-$12,487	73.5%	$-12,250 (vs do-nothing $-10,970)
$200	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.56	4/5	$6,240	$6,200	78%	81%	+$981	-$10,822	63.7%	$-10,888 (vs do-nothing $-9,608)
$197.50	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.10	3/5	$6,300	$6,434	72%	77%	+$702	-$8,704	51.2%	$-9,074 (vs do-nothing $-7,794)
$205	17d	31 Jul 2026	$5.90	5/5	$5,206	$4,992	71%	77%	+$577	-$8,857	52.1%	$-8,620 (vs do-nothing $-7,340)
$200	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/5	$5,700	$5,486	70%	76%	+$499	-$12,407	73.0%	$-12,170 (vs do-nothing $-10,890)
$202.50	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	5/5	$5,824	$5,610	68%	75%	+$592	-$9,757	57.4%	$-9,520 (vs do-nothing $-8,240)
$195	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/5	$5,540	$5,848	66%	73%	+$380	-$6,169	36.3%	$-6,842 (vs do-nothing $-5,562)
$197.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	4/5	$5,400	$5,360	66%	74%	+$365	-$10,646	62.6%	$-10,712 (vs do-nothing $-9,432)
$200	17d	31 Jul 2026	$7.30	4/5	$5,153	$5,113	66%	74%	+$432	-$8,526	50.2%	$-8,592 (vs do-nothing $-7,312)
$197.50	17d	31 Jul 2026	$8.25	4/5	$5,824	$5,784	63%	72%	+$510	-$9,146	53.8%	$-9,212 (vs do-nothing $-7,932)
$195	10d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	4/5	$6,300	$6,260	62%	71%	+$248	-$11,346	66.7%	$-11,412 (vs do-nothing $-10,132)
$195	17d	31 Jul 2026	$9.05	4/5	$6,388	$6,349	60%	71%	+$422	-$9,826	57.8%	$-9,892 (vs do-nothing $-8,612)
$192.50	3d	17 Jul 2026	$3.25	2/5	$6,500	$6,808	60%	69%	$-450	-$6,573	38.7%	$-7,246 (vs do-nothing $-5,966)

Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$192.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/5	$5,580	$5,714	58%	69%	+$165	-$8,974	52.8%	$-9,344 (vs do-nothing $-8,064)
$192.50	17d	31 Jul 2026	$10.05	3/5	$5,321	$5,455	57%	69%	+$310	-$7,819	46.0%	$-8,189 (vs do-nothing $-6,909)
$190	17d	31 Jul 2026	$11.20	3/5	$5,929	$6,064	54%	68%	+$333	-$8,224	48.4%	$-8,594 (vs do-nothing $-7,314)
$190	10d	24 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/5	$6,705	$6,839	53%	67%	+$293	-$9,349	55.0%	$-9,719 (vs do-nothing $-8,439)
$190	3d	17 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$8,400	$8,708	53%	65%	$-734	-$6,883	40.5%	$-7,556 (vs do-nothing $-6,276)
$187.50	17d	31 Jul 2026	$12.30	3/5	$6,512	$6,646	51%	66%	+$279	-$8,644	50.8%	$-9,014 (vs do-nothing $-7,734)
$187.50	10d	24 Jul 2026	$8.65	2/5	$5,190	$5,498	49%	65%	+$168	-$6,493	38.2%	$-7,166 (vs do-nothing $-5,886)
$187.50	3d	17 Jul 2026	$5.35	1/5	$5,350	$5,832	46%	62%	$-520	-$3,576	21.0%	$-4,553 (vs do-nothing $-3,273)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-14 21:38