5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $227.95 (banked floor $225.17) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $11,121/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $188/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,560 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $180 | 73% | $6,429 | $1,802 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $220 | 24 Jul | 7d | 28.7% | 99% | 2% | -1pp | $50 | $214 | -$6,214 | $3,924 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $220 28.7% OTM over spot $170.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $50 credit for the 7d cycle → $214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $220.18) 99% EV / mo +$180 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-11/mo median; plan ~$-8/mo after 68% keep · $-25 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,071 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $239 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.83/sh now → $6.24 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $8 below CC-SS $227.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $220.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,885 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $220): -$3,924 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,599 (+$25,961 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,800, the opportunity cost of earning $214/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $192.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.6% | 91% | 19% | +3pp | $505 | $2,164 | -$4,264 | $17,219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 12.6% OTM over spot $170.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.07 mid) = $505 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,164/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $193.57) 92% EV / mo +$1,269 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,250/mo median; plan ~$850/mo after 68% keep · $7,129 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,226 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $212 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.72/sh now → $5.46 mid-life (likely $4.53–$7.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $196 (overshoots $3.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $35 below CC-SS $227.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $193.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,885 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$17,219 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,894 (+$12,666 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,095, the opportunity cost of earning $2,164/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $185 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.2% | 82% | 37% | +9pp | $995 | $4,264 | -$2,164 | $20,479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 8.2% OTM over spot $170.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.07 mid) = $995 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,264/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $187.07) 85% EV / mo +$1,945 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,047/mo median; plan ~$1,392/mo after 68% keep · $12,001 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.5], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,630 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $202 @ 86% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.42/sh now → $5.25 mid-life (likely $5.00–$8.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 766 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $189 (overshoots $3.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $43 below CC-SS $227.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $1.99 collected) or spot ≥ $187.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,885 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$20,479 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,154 (+$9,406 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,355, the opportunity cost of earning $4,264/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $180 | 24 Jul | 7d | 5.3% | 73% | 42% | +10pp | $1,500 | $6,429 | — | $22,474 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $180 5.3% OTM over spot $170.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.17 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $183.18) 79% EV / mo +$2,184 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,566/mo median; plan ~$1,745/mo after 68% keep · $12,472 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.3-4.0], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,054 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $212 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.22/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $5.63–$8.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,268 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $184 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $48 below CC-SS $227.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $183.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,885 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $180): -$22,474 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,149 (+$7,411 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,350, the opportunity cost of earning $6,429/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $172.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.9% | 56% | 92% | +17pp | $2,875 | $12,321 | +$5,893 | $24,849 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $172.50 0.9% OTM over spot $170.97 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.95 mid) = $2,875 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,321/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $178.45) 70% EV / mo +$2,761 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,493/mo median; plan ~$2,375/mo after 68% keep · $13,662 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$428 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $212 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.92/sh now → $4.89 mid-life (likely $6.71–$9.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,137 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $55 below CC-SS $227.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.44/sh (~25% of the $5.75 collected) or spot ≥ $178.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $227.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,560 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$29,885 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $172.50): -$24,849 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,524 (+$5,036 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-799 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,725, the opportunity cost of earning $12,321/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.049 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$29,885 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-799
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $185 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 5/5 | $5,839 | $5,651 | 75% | 82% | +$3,094 | -$18,749 | 110.3% | $-18,424 (vs do-nothing $-17,625) |
| $180 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/5 | $6,429 | $6,240 | 73% | 79% | +$2,184 | -$22,474 | 132.2% | $-22,149 (vs do-nothing $-21,350) |
| $182.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 5/5 | $6,696 | $6,508 | 72% | 80% | +$3,324 | -$19,599 | 115.3% | $-19,274 (vs do-nothing $-18,475) |
| $180 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 4/5 | $6,043 | $6,005 | 68% | 78% | +$2,756 | -$16,359 | 96.2% | $-16,259 (vs do-nothing $-15,460) |
| $177.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/5 | $6,514 | $6,476 | 68% | 76% | +$1,998 | -$18,659 | 109.8% | $-18,559 (vs do-nothing $-17,760) |
| $180 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 5/5 | $6,036 | $5,848 | 66% | 76% | +$2,202 | -$19,749 | 116.2% | $-19,424 (vs do-nothing $-18,625) |
| $177.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.00 | 4/5 | $6,857 | $6,819 | 64% | 76% | +$2,885 | -$16,979 | 99.9% | $-16,879 (vs do-nothing $-16,080) |
| $177.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.20 | 5/5 | $6,571 | $6,383 | 63% | 75% | +$2,125 | -$20,624 | 121.3% | $-20,299 (vs do-nothing $-19,500) |
| $175 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 3/5 | $5,979 | $6,090 | 62% | 73% | +$1,536 | -$14,489 | 85.2% | $-14,614 (vs do-nothing $-13,815) |
| $175 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 3/5 | $5,754 | $5,865 | 60% | 74% | +$2,183 | -$13,199 | 77.6% | $-13,324 (vs do-nothing $-12,525) |
| $175 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.40 | 4/5 | $5,943 | $5,905 | 59% | 73% | +$1,838 | -$17,019 | 100.1% | $-16,919 (vs do-nothing $-16,120) |
| $175 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.70 | 5/5 | $6,268 | $6,080 | 59% | 72% | +$1,681 | -$20,624 | 121.3% | $-20,299 (vs do-nothing $-19,500) |
| $172.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 3/5 | $7,393 | $7,505 | 56% | 70% | +$1,656 | -$14,909 | 87.7% | $-15,034 (vs do-nothing $-14,235) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.35 | 4/5 | $6,486 | $6,448 | 55% | 71% | +$1,773 | -$17,639 | 103.8% | $-17,539 (vs do-nothing $-16,740) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.05 | 3/5 | $6,461 | $6,573 | 55% | 72% | +$2,216 | -$13,619 | 80.1% | $-13,744 (vs do-nothing $-12,945) |
| $170 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $13.95 | 4/5 | $5,979 | $5,940 | 52% | 69% | +$1,352 | -$17,599 | 103.5% | $-17,499 (vs do-nothing $-16,700) |
| $170 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.60 | 4/5 | $7,200 | $7,162 | 52% | 68% | +$1,171 | -$18,139 | 106.7% | $-18,039 (vs do-nothing $-17,240) |
| $170 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.35 | 3/5 | $7,296 | $7,408 | 51% | 71% | +$2,292 | -$13,979 | 82.2% | $-14,104 (vs do-nothing $-13,305) |
| $170 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $6,000 | $6,262 | 49% | 67% | +$1,143 | -$10,189 | 59.9% | $-10,539 (vs do-nothing $-9,740) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.