5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $228.88 (banked floor $226.11) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,789/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $188/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,222 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $180 | 74% | $6,129 | $1,846 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $220 | 24 Jul | 7d | 28.9% | 99% | 1% | -2pp | $48 | $206 | -$5,923 | $3,505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $220 28.9% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.13 mid) = $48 credit for the 7d cycle → $206/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $220.13) 99% EV / mo +$193 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $80/mo median; plan ~$54/mo after 68% keep · $389 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,314 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $239 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.35/sh now → $5.90 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $9 below CC-SS $228.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $220.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,222 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,525 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $220): -$3,505 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $225): -$318 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,521 (+$26,701 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,289 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,232, the opportunity cost of earning $206/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $192.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.8% | 91% | 19% | +2pp | $445 | $1,907 | -$4,221 | $17,747 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 12.8% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.99 mid) = $445 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,907/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $193.49) 92% EV / mo +$1,005 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,079/mo median; plan ~$734/mo after 68% keep · $6,175 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-4.2], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,138 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $217 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.31/sh now → $5.17 mid-life (likely $4.33–$7.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 344 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $196 (overshoots $3.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $36 below CC-SS $228.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $193.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,222 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$17,747 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,444 (+$12,778 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,289 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,155, the opportunity cost of earning $1,907/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $185 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.4% | 82% | 36% | +7pp | $895 | $3,836 | -$2,293 | $21,047 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 8.4% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.89 mid) = $895 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,836/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $186.88) 85% EV / mo +$1,540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,834/mo median; plan ~$1,247/mo after 68% keep · $11,810 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.8], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,588 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $214 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.02/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $4.77–$7.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 752 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $189 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $44 below CC-SS $228.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.79 collected) or spot ≥ $186.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,222 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$21,047 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,744 (+$9,478 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,289 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,455, the opportunity cost of earning $3,836/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $180 | 24 Jul | 7d | 5.5% | 74% | 41% | +10pp | $1,430 | $6,129 | — | $23,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $180 5.5% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.96 mid) = $1,430 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,129/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $182.96) 79% EV / mo +$1,959 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,482/mo median; plan ~$1,687/mo after 68% keep · $11,848 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$985 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $219 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.83/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $5.28–$8.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,241 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $184 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $49 below CC-SS $228.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.86 collected) or spot ≥ $182.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,222 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $180): -$23,012 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,709 (+$7,513 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,289 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,420, the opportunity cost of earning $6,129/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $172.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 1.1% | 57% | 90% | +14pp | $2,675 | $11,464 | +$5,336 | $25,517 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $172.50 1.1% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.50 mid) = $2,675 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $178.00) 70% EV / mo +$2,110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,280/mo median; plan ~$2,231/mo after 68% keep · $13,405 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-3.7], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$360 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $217 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.55/sh now → $4.63 mid-life (likely $6.30–$9.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,095 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $56 below CC-SS $228.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.35 collected) or spot ≥ $178.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,222 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$30,525 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $172.50): -$25,517 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,214 (+$5,008 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,289 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,925, the opportunity cost of earning $11,464/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.048 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,525 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,289
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 5/5 | $6,129 | $5,940 | 74% | 79% | +$1,959 | -$23,012 | 135.4% | $-22,709 (vs do-nothing $-21,420) |
| $185 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 5/5 | $5,679 | $5,490 | 73% | 79% | +$1,636 | -$19,292 | 113.5% | $-18,989 (vs do-nothing $-17,700) |
| $182.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 5/5 | $6,429 | $6,240 | 70% | 77% | +$1,692 | -$20,192 | 118.8% | $-19,889 (vs do-nothing $-18,600) |
| $177.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/5 | $6,171 | $6,133 | 69% | 76% | +$1,745 | -$19,113 | 112.4% | $-19,129 (vs do-nothing $-17,840) |
| $180 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 4/5 | $5,786 | $5,748 | 66% | 75% | +$1,362 | -$16,853 | 99.1% | $-16,869 (vs do-nothing $-15,580) |
| $180 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.15 | 5/5 | $5,821 | $5,633 | 65% | 74% | +$1,244 | -$20,367 | 119.8% | $-20,064 (vs do-nothing $-18,775) |
| $177.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 4/5 | $6,514 | $6,476 | 63% | 73% | +$1,372 | -$17,513 | 103.0% | $-17,529 (vs do-nothing $-16,240) |
| $175 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/5 | $5,657 | $5,769 | 63% | 73% | +$1,309 | -$14,845 | 87.3% | $-15,179 (vs do-nothing $-13,890) |
| $177.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 5/5 | $6,429 | $6,240 | 62% | 73% | +$1,228 | -$21,192 | 124.7% | $-20,889 (vs do-nothing $-19,600) |
| $175 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 3/5 | $5,496 | $5,608 | 60% | 71% | +$1,033 | -$13,600 | 80.0% | $-13,934 (vs do-nothing $-12,645) |
| $175 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.95 | 4/5 | $5,686 | $5,648 | 59% | 71% | +$974 | -$17,573 | 103.4% | $-17,589 (vs do-nothing $-16,300) |
| $175 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.20 | 5/5 | $6,000 | $5,812 | 59% | 71% | +$1,050 | -$21,342 | 125.5% | $-21,039 (vs do-nothing $-19,750) |
| $172.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $6,879 | $6,990 | 57% | 70% | +$1,266 | -$15,310 | 90.1% | $-15,644 (vs do-nothing $-14,355) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.05 | 4/5 | $6,314 | $6,276 | 56% | 70% | +$997 | -$18,133 | 106.7% | $-18,149 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 3/5 | $6,171 | $6,283 | 56% | 69% | +$1,031 | -$14,035 | 82.6% | $-14,369 (vs do-nothing $-13,080) |
| $170 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.85 | 4/5 | $5,507 | $5,469 | 53% | 68% | +$358 | -$18,413 | 108.3% | $-18,429 (vs do-nothing $-17,140) |
| $170 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.15 | 4/5 | $6,943 | $6,905 | 53% | 68% | +$963 | -$18,693 | 110.0% | $-18,709 (vs do-nothing $-17,420) |
| $170 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.70 | 3/5 | $6,879 | $6,990 | 52% | 68% | +$988 | -$14,455 | 85.0% | $-14,789 (vs do-nothing $-13,500) |
| $170 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 2/5 | $5,614 | $5,876 | 50% | 67% | +$861 | -$10,467 | 61.6% | $-11,119 (vs do-nothing $-9,830) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 3/5 | $7,457 | $7,569 | 48% | 66% | +$1,109 | -$14,935 | 87.9% | $-15,269 (vs do-nothing $-13,980) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 2/5 | $6,771 | $7,033 | 44% | 64% | +$835 | -$10,697 | 62.9% | $-11,349 (vs do-nothing $-10,060) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.