5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $220.88 (banked floor $218.10) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,789/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $188/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,055 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $180 | 74% | $6,129 | $1,846 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $220 | 24 Jul | 7d | 28.9% | 99% | 1% | -2pp | $48 | $206 | -$5,923 | $303 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $220 28.9% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.13 mid) = $48 credit for the 7d cycle → $206/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $220.13) 99% EV / mo +$193 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $81/mo median; plan ~$55/mo after 68% keep · $349 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.8-4.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,314 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $239 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.35/sh now → $5.90 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $1 below CC-SS $220.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $220.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,305 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $220): -$303 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $225): +$70 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17 (+$26,072 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-583, the opportunity cost of earning $206/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $192.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.8% | 91% | 19% | +4pp | $445 | $1,907 | -$4,221 | $13,744 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 12.8% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.99 mid) = $445 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,907/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $193.49) 92% EV / mo +$1,005 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,040/mo median; plan ~$708/mo after 68% keep · $5,846 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-4.2], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,138 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $217 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.31/sh now → $5.17 mid-life (likely $4.33–$7.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 344 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $196 (overshoots $3.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $28 below CC-SS $220.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $193.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,305 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$13,744 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,494 (+$12,561 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,094, the opportunity cost of earning $1,907/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $185 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.4% | 82% | 36% | +8pp | $895 | $3,836 | -$2,293 | $17,044 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 8.4% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.89 mid) = $895 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,836/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $186.88) 85% EV / mo +$1,540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,874/mo median; plan ~$1,274/mo after 68% keep · $9,774 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-4.3], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,588 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $214 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.02/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $4.77–$7.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 752 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $189 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $36 below CC-SS $220.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.79 collected) or spot ≥ $186.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,305 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$17,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,794 (+$9,261 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,394, the opportunity cost of earning $3,836/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $180 | 24 Jul | 7d | 5.5% | 74% | 41% | +10pp | $1,430 | $6,129 | — | $19,009 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $180 5.5% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.96 mid) = $1,430 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,129/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $182.96) 79% EV / mo +$1,959 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,517/mo median; plan ~$1,712/mo after 68% keep · $9,686 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$985 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $219 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.83/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $5.28–$8.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,241 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $184 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $41 below CC-SS $220.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.86 collected) or spot ≥ $182.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,305 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $180): -$19,009 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,759 (+$7,296 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,359, the opportunity cost of earning $6,129/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $172.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 1.1% | 57% | 90% | +12pp | $2,675 | $11,464 | +$5,336 | $21,514 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $172.50 1.1% OTM over spot $170.63 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.50 mid) = $2,675 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $172.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $178.00) 70% EV / mo +$2,110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,518/mo median; plan ~$2,392/mo after 68% keep · $10,164 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$360 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $217 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.55/sh now → $4.63 mid-life (likely $6.30–$9.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,095 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $176 (overshoots $3.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $172.50 is $48 below CC-SS $220.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.35 collected) or spot ≥ $178.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $172)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $218.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.88, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-26,055 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,305 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $172.50): -$21,514 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,264 (+$4,791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,864, the opportunity cost of earning $11,464/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.047 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,305 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $600
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 5/5 | $6,129 | $5,940 | 74% | 79% | +$1,959 | -$19,009 | 111.8% | $-18,759 (vs do-nothing $-19,359) |
| $185 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 5/5 | $5,679 | $5,490 | 73% | 79% | +$1,636 | -$15,289 | 89.9% | $-15,039 (vs do-nothing $-15,639) |
| $182.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 5/5 | $6,429 | $6,240 | 70% | 77% | +$1,692 | -$16,189 | 95.2% | $-15,939 (vs do-nothing $-16,539) |
| $177.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/5 | $6,171 | $6,133 | 69% | 76% | +$1,745 | -$15,911 | 93.6% | $-15,591 (vs do-nothing $-16,191) |
| $180 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 4/5 | $5,786 | $5,748 | 66% | 75% | +$1,362 | -$13,651 | 80.3% | $-13,331 (vs do-nothing $-13,931) |
| $180 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.15 | 5/5 | $5,821 | $5,633 | 65% | 74% | +$1,244 | -$16,364 | 96.3% | $-16,114 (vs do-nothing $-16,714) |
| $177.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 4/5 | $6,514 | $6,476 | 63% | 73% | +$1,372 | -$14,311 | 84.2% | $-13,991 (vs do-nothing $-14,591) |
| $175 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/5 | $5,657 | $5,769 | 63% | 73% | +$1,309 | -$12,444 | 73.2% | $-12,053 (vs do-nothing $-12,654) |
| $177.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 5/5 | $6,429 | $6,240 | 62% | 73% | +$1,228 | -$17,189 | 101.1% | $-16,939 (vs do-nothing $-17,539) |
| $175 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.55 | 3/5 | $5,496 | $5,608 | 60% | 71% | +$1,033 | -$11,199 | 65.9% | $-10,808 (vs do-nothing $-11,409) |
| $175 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.95 | 4/5 | $5,686 | $5,648 | 59% | 71% | +$974 | -$14,371 | 84.5% | $-14,051 (vs do-nothing $-14,651) |
| $175 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.20 | 5/5 | $6,000 | $5,812 | 59% | 71% | +$1,050 | -$17,339 | 102.0% | $-17,089 (vs do-nothing $-17,689) |
| $172.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/5 | $6,879 | $6,990 | 57% | 70% | +$1,266 | -$12,909 | 75.9% | $-12,518 (vs do-nothing $-13,119) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.05 | 4/5 | $6,314 | $6,276 | 56% | 70% | +$997 | -$14,931 | 87.8% | $-14,611 (vs do-nothing $-15,211) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 3/5 | $6,171 | $6,283 | 56% | 69% | +$1,031 | -$11,634 | 68.4% | $-11,243 (vs do-nothing $-11,844) |
| $170 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.85 | 4/5 | $5,507 | $5,469 | 53% | 68% | +$358 | -$15,211 | 89.5% | $-14,891 (vs do-nothing $-15,491) |
| $170 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.15 | 4/5 | $6,943 | $6,905 | 53% | 68% | +$963 | -$15,491 | 91.1% | $-15,171 (vs do-nothing $-15,771) |
| $170 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.70 | 3/5 | $6,879 | $6,990 | 52% | 68% | +$988 | -$12,054 | 70.9% | $-11,663 (vs do-nothing $-12,264) |
| $170 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 2/5 | $5,614 | $5,876 | 50% | 67% | +$861 | -$8,866 | 52.2% | $-8,406 (vs do-nothing $-9,006) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 3/5 | $7,457 | $7,569 | 48% | 66% | +$1,109 | -$12,534 | 73.7% | $-12,143 (vs do-nothing $-12,744) |
| $167.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 2/5 | $6,771 | $7,033 | 44% | 64% | +$835 | -$9,096 | 53.5% | $-8,636 (vs do-nothing $-9,236) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.