5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $229.56 (banked floor $226.78) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,911/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $193/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,822 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $175 | 72% | $6,064 | $1,473 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 21.8% | 98% | 5% | +0pp | $50 | $214 | -$5,850 | $13,479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 21.8% OTM over spot $166.28 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $50 credit for the 7d cycle → $214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $202.94) 98% EV / mo +$71 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-19/mo median; plan ~$-13/mo after 68% keep · $-87 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,862 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $216 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.24/sh now → $5.82 mid-life (likely $4.50–$8.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 57 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $207 (overshoots $4.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $27 below CC-SS $229.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $202.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $219.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,822 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,034 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$13,479 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,268 (+$19,555 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,848 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,420, the opportunity cost of earning $214/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $187.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 12.8% | 90% | 20% | +3pp | $420 | $1,800 | -$4,264 | $20,609 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $187.50 12.8% OTM over spot $166.28 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.93 mid) = $420 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $188.43) 91% EV / mo +$854 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $999/mo median; plan ~$679/mo after 68% keep · $6,086 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.2], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,276 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $206 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.63/sh now → $5.39 mid-life (likely $4.58–$8.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 394 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $191 (overshoots $3.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $42 below CC-SS $229.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $188.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $219.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,822 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,034 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $187.50): -$20,609 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,398 (+$12,425 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,848 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $180 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.3% | 81% | 39% | +9pp | $875 | $3,750 | -$2,314 | $23,904 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $180 8.3% OTM over spot $166.28 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.93 mid) = $875 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $181.93) 84% EV / mo +$1,210 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,692/mo median; plan ~$1,151/mo after 68% keep · $10,062 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.7-4.5], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,714 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $204 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $5.15–$8.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 858 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $184 (overshoots $3.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $50 below CC-SS $229.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.44/sh (~25% of the $1.75 collected) or spot ≥ $181.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $219.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,822 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,034 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $180): -$23,904 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,693 (+$9,130 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,848 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,845, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $175 | 24 Jul | 7d | 5.2% | 72% | 43% | +10pp | $1,415 | $6,064 | — | $25,864 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $175 5.2% OTM over spot $166.28 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.14 mid) = $1,415 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,064/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $178.14) 78% EV / mo +$1,413 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,292/mo median; plan ~$1,559/mo after 68% keep · $13,105 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,102 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $214 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.12/sh now → $5.03 mid-life (likely $5.88–$8.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,277 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $179 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $55 below CC-SS $229.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.83 collected) or spot ≥ $178.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $219.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,822 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,034 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $175): -$25,864 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,653 (+$7,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,848 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,805, the opportunity cost of earning $6,064/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $167.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.7% | 55% | 93% | +13pp | $2,500 | $10,714 | +$4,650 | $28,529 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $167.50 0.7% OTM over spot $166.28 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $5.58 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $173.07) 68% EV / mo +$456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,811/mo median; plan ~$1,912/mo after 68% keep · $14,400 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$91 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $206 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.81/sh now → $4.82 mid-life (likely $6.63–$9.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,221 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $172 (overshoots $4.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $62 below CC-SS $229.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.25/sh (~25% of the $5.00 collected) or spot ≥ $173.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $219.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,822 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,034 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $167.50): -$28,529 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,318 (+$4,505 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,848 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,470, the opportunity cost of earning $10,714/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,034 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,848
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 5/5 | $6,064 | $5,871 | 72% | 78% | +$1,413 | -$25,864 | 152.1% | $-25,653 (vs do-nothing $-23,805) |
| $180 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 5/5 | $5,304 | $5,111 | 72% | 78% | +$996 | -$22,304 | 131.2% | $-22,093 (vs do-nothing $-20,245) |
| $177.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 5/5 | $6,161 | $5,968 | 69% | 76% | +$1,135 | -$23,154 | 136.2% | $-22,943 (vs do-nothing $-21,095) |
| $172.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $6,000 | $5,901 | 67% | 75% | +$1,077 | -$21,423 | 126.0% | $-21,624 (vs do-nothing $-19,776) |
| $175 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 4/5 | $5,657 | $5,559 | 66% | 74% | +$982 | -$19,183 | 112.8% | $-19,384 (vs do-nothing $-17,536) |
| $175 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 5/5 | $5,429 | $5,236 | 65% | 74% | +$774 | -$23,479 | 138.1% | $-23,268 (vs do-nothing $-21,420) |
| $172.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $6,171 | $6,073 | 62% | 73% | +$757 | -$19,943 | 117.3% | $-20,144 (vs do-nothing $-18,296) |
| $172.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 5/5 | $6,000 | $5,807 | 62% | 72% | +$709 | -$24,329 | 143.1% | $-24,118 (vs do-nothing $-22,270) |
| $170 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 3/5 | $5,850 | $5,846 | 61% | 72% | +$1,042 | -$16,502 | 97.1% | $-17,115 (vs do-nothing $-15,267) |
| $170 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 3/5 | $5,464 | $5,460 | 59% | 71% | +$780 | -$15,317 | 90.1% | $-15,930 (vs do-nothing $-14,082) |
| $170 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.60 | 4/5 | $5,486 | $5,387 | 58% | 71% | +$690 | -$19,983 | 117.5% | $-20,184 (vs do-nothing $-18,336) |
| $170 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.85 | 5/5 | $5,812 | $5,620 | 58% | 71% | +$814 | -$24,354 | 143.3% | $-24,143 (vs do-nothing $-22,295) |
| $167.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 3/5 | $5,946 | $5,942 | 55% | 69% | +$568 | -$15,842 | 93.2% | $-16,455 (vs do-nothing $-14,607) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $167.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 3/5 | $6,429 | $6,424 | 55% | 68% | +$274 | -$17,117 | 100.7% | $-17,730 (vs do-nothing $-15,882) |
| $165 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.95 | 4/5 | $5,550 | $5,451 | 52% | 68% | +$570 | -$20,643 | 121.4% | $-20,844 (vs do-nothing $-18,996) |
| $165 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.75 | 3/5 | $5,036 | $5,031 | 52% | 68% | +$468 | -$15,842 | 93.2% | $-16,455 (vs do-nothing $-14,607) |
| $165 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 3/5 | $6,718 | $6,714 | 51% | 67% | +$570 | -$16,232 | 95.5% | $-16,845 (vs do-nothing $-14,997) |
| $165 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.20 | 2/5 | $5,314 | $5,404 | 49% | 65% | +$151 | -$11,672 | 68.7% | $-12,696 (vs do-nothing $-10,848) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.