5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $228.74 (banked floor $227.51) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,094/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $221/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-34,763 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $3.07 | $1,535 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 5 × $187.50 | 93% | $5,625 | $2,927 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 5 × $180 | 80% | $4,717 | $9 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $215 | 31 Jul | 2d | 32.6% | 99+%hist 100% | 0%hist 1% | -1pp | $15 | $225 | -$5,400 | $6,857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $215 32.6% OTM over spot $162.10 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $15 credit for the 2d cycle → $225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $215) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $215.04) 99+% EV / mo +$225 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-219/mo median; plan ~$-149/mo after 68% keep · $-1,970 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,558 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $225 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.10/sh now → $7.15 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $215 is $14 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $215.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $215): -$6,857 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,331 (+$28,431 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,660, the opportunity cost of earning $225/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 18.8% | 99+%hist 100% | 1%hist 1% | -0pp | $205 | $3,075 | -$2,550 | $17,917 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 18.8% OTM over spot $162.10 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.48 mid) = $205 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $192.98) 99+% EV / mo +$3,062 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-41/mo median; plan ~$-28/mo after 68% keep · $-314 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.5], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,994 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $208 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.05/sh now → $6.40 mid-life (likely $6.54–$11.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 140 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $199 (overshoots $6.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $36 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $192.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$17,917 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,391 (+$17,371 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,720, the opportunity cost of earning $3,075/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $187.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 15.7% | 93%hist 100% | 14%hist 5% | +5pp | $375 | $5,625 | — | $20,247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $187.50 15.7% OTM over spot $162.10 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.82 mid) = $375 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $187.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $188.32) 94% EV / mo +$3,527 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,433/mo median; plan ~$2,335/mo after 68% keep · $9,684 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,741 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $203 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.81/sh now → $6.23 mid-life (likely $6.43–$11.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 226 simulated challenges: the $188 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $194 (overshoots $6.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $187.50 is $41 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $188.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $188)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $187.50): -$20,247 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,721 (+$15,041 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,050, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $185 | 31 Jul | 2d | 14.1% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +6pp | $500 | $7,500 | +$1,875 | $21,372 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 14.1% OTM over spot $162.10 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.06 mid) = $500 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $186.06) 92% EV / mo +$4,456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,256/mo median; plan ~$2,894/mo after 68% keep · $12,453 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,574 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $203 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.69/sh now → $6.15 mid-life (likely $6.46–$12.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $192 (overshoots $7.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $44 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $186.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$21,372 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,846 (+$13,916 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,175, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $182.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 12.6% | 89%hist 99% | 23%hist 13% | +10pp | $640 | $9,600 | +$3,975 | $22,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $182.50 12.6% OTM over spot $162.10 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.34 mid) = $640 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $183.84) 90% EV / mo +$5,252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,313/mo median; plan ~$3,613/mo after 68% keep · $14,169 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,393 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $200 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.58/sh now → $6.07 mid-life (likely $6.90–$13.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $190 (overshoots $7.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $46 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.28 collected) or spot ≥ $183.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $182.50): -$22,482 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,956 (+$12,806 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,285, the opportunity cost of earning $9,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $205 | 7 Aug | 9d | 26.5% | 96%hist 100% | 7%hist 1% | +0pp | $78 | $260 | -$4,457 | $4,671 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $205 26.5% OTM over spot $162.10 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $78 credit for the 9d cycle → $260/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $205.50) 97% EV / mo +$151 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $168/mo median; plan ~$115/mo after 68% keep · $998 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-4.2], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,641 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $210 @ 69% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.15/sh now → $8.60 mid-life (likely $6.29–$10.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 146 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $210 (overshoots $4.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $24 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $205.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $205): -$4,671 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $220): -$2,518 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,663 (+$28,099 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,992, the opportunity cost of earning $260/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $192.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 18.8% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +4pp | $590 | $1,967 | -$2,750 | $17,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 18.8% OTM over spot $162.10 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.28 mid) = $590 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,967/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $193.78) 92% EV / mo +$1,013 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,071/mo median; plan ~$728/mo after 68% keep · $5,469 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,446 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $200 @ 70% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.41/sh now → $8.07 mid-life (likely $6.77–$11.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 411 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $198 (overshoots $5.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $36 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $193.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$17,532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,006 (+$17,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,335, the opportunity cost of earning $1,967/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $185 | 7 Aug | 9d | 14.1% | 85%hist 99% | 30%hist 18% | +7pp | $1,010 | $3,367 | -$1,350 | $20,862 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 14.1% OTM over spot $162.10 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.17 mid) = $1,010 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,367/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $187.17) 87% EV / mo +$1,386 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,630/mo median; plan ~$1,109/mo after 68% keep · $8,645 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.2], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,869 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $195 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.97/sh now → $7.76 mid-life (likely $7.09–$11.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 700 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $190 (overshoots $4.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $44 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.02 collected) or spot ≥ $187.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$20,862 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,336 (+$14,426 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,665, the opportunity cost of earning $3,367/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $180 | 7 Aug | 9d | 11.0% | 80%hist 99% | 41%hist 28% | +7pp | $1,415 | $4,717 | — | $22,957 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $180 11.0% OTM over spot $162.10 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $3.12 mid) = $1,415 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,717/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $180) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $183.12) 84% EV / mo +$1,642 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,002/mo median; plan ~$1,361/mo after 68% keep · $11,817 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,359 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $195 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.67/sh now → $7.55 mid-life (likely $7.84–$12.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 965 simulated challenges: the $180 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $185 (overshoots $4.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $180 is $49 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.71/sh (~25% of the $2.83 collected) or spot ≥ $183.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $180)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $180): -$22,957 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,431 (+$12,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,760, the opportunity cost of earning $4,717/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $167.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 3.3% | 62%hist 80% | 79%hist 59% | +12pp | $3,150 | $10,500 | +$5,783 | $27,472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $167.50 3.3% OTM over spot $162.10 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $6.78 mid) = $3,150 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $174.28) 73% EV / mo +$2,064 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,104/mo median; plan ~$2,111/mo after 68% keep · $15,192 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.1-3.8], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$362 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $200 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.93/sh now → $7.02 mid-life (likely $9.20–$12.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,947 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $172 (overshoots $4.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $61 below CC-SS $228.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.57/sh (~25% of the $6.30 collected) or spot ≥ $174.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $193.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-34,763 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,288 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $167.50): -$27,472 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,946 (+$7,816 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,671 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,275, the opportunity cost of earning $10,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,288 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,671
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 5/5 | $5,625 | $5,404 | 93% | 94% | +$3,527 | -$20,247 | 119.1% | $-19,721 (vs do-nothing $-16,050) |
| $185 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 4/5 | $6,000 | $5,845 | 91% | 92% | +$3,565 | -$17,098 | 100.6% | $-17,411 (vs do-nothing $-13,740) |
| $182.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 3/5 | $5,760 | $5,671 | 89% | 90% | +$3,151 | -$13,489 | 79.3% | $-14,642 (vs do-nothing $-10,971) |
| $180 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 2/5 | $4,800 | $4,776 | 86% | 88% | +$2,358 | -$9,429 | 55.5% | $-11,421 (vs do-nothing $-7,750) |
| $177.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 2/5 | $5,730 | $5,706 | 83% | 85% | +$2,360 | -$9,867 | 58.0% | $-11,859 (vs do-nothing $-8,188) |
| $180 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.83 | 5/5 | $4,717 | $4,496 | 80% | 84% | +$1,642 | -$22,957 | 135.0% | $-22,431 (vs do-nothing $-18,760) |
| $175 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 2/5 | $7,590 | $7,566 | 79% | 83% | +$3,022 | -$10,243 | 60.3% | $-12,235 (vs do-nothing $-8,564) |
| $177.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 5/5 | $5,583 | $5,363 | 77% | 82% | +$1,765 | -$23,947 | 140.9% | $-23,421 (vs do-nothing $-19,750) |
| $172.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 1/5 | $4,650 | $4,692 | 74% | 80% | +$1,607 | -$5,314 | 31.3% | $-8,146 (vs do-nothing $-4,475) |
| $175 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 4/5 | $5,200 | $5,045 | 74% | 79% | +$1,433 | -$19,938 | 117.3% | $-20,251 (vs do-nothing $-16,580) |
| $175 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $4,828 | $4,608 | 72% | 78% | +$1,162 | -$24,297 | 142.9% | $-23,771 (vs do-nothing $-20,100) |
| $172.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 3/5 | $4,600 | $4,511 | 70% | 77% | +$1,142 | -$15,493 | 91.1% | $-16,646 (vs do-nothing $-12,975) |
| $170 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 1/5 | $5,700 | $5,742 | 70% | 77% | +$1,710 | -$5,494 | 32.3% | $-8,326 (vs do-nothing $-4,655) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 5/5 | $5,484 | $5,264 | 68% | 76% | +$1,170 | -$25,197 | 148.2% | $-24,671 (vs do-nothing $-21,000) |
| $172.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 5/5 | $4,630 | $4,410 | 67% | 75% | +$999 | -$24,572 | 144.5% | $-24,046 (vs do-nothing $-20,375) |
| $170 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $5,400 | $5,311 | 66% | 75% | +$1,200 | -$16,003 | 94.1% | $-17,156 (vs do-nothing $-13,485) |
| $170 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.65 | 4/5 | $4,988 | $4,833 | 65% | 74% | +$946 | -$20,838 | 122.6% | $-21,151 (vs do-nothing $-17,480) |
| $167.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 1/5 | $6,900 | $6,942 | 64% | 74% | +$1,749 | -$5,664 | 33.3% | $-8,496 (vs do-nothing $-4,825) |
| $170 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.00 | 5/5 | $5,217 | $4,997 | 63% | 71% | $-309 | -$25,372 | 149.2% | $-24,846 (vs do-nothing $-21,175) |
| $167.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 3/5 | $6,300 | $6,211 | 62% | 73% | +$1,238 | -$16,483 | 97.0% | $-17,636 (vs do-nothing $-13,965) |
| $167.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 4/5 | $5,738 | $5,583 | 61% | 72% | +$1,029 | -$21,438 | 126.1% | $-21,751 (vs do-nothing $-18,080) |
| $167.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 4/5 | $4,696 | $4,541 | 60% | 70% | $-218 | -$20,898 | 122.9% | $-21,211 (vs do-nothing $-17,540) |
| $165 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 1/5 | $8,325 | $8,367 | 59% | 71% | +$1,776 | -$5,819 | 34.2% | $-8,651 (vs do-nothing $-4,980) |
| $165 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.10 | 2/5 | $4,733 | $4,710 | 58% | 71% | +$701 | -$11,329 | 66.6% | $-13,321 (vs do-nothing $-9,650) |
| $165 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $8.65 | 3/5 | $4,866 | $4,776 | 58% | 71% | +$774 | -$16,528 | 97.2% | $-17,681 (vs do-nothing $-14,010) |
| $165 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.75 | 4/5 | $5,087 | $4,932 | 58% | 68% | $-360 | -$21,598 | 127.0% | $-21,911 (vs do-nothing $-18,240) |
| $162.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.95 | 4/5 | $5,713 | $5,558 | 55% | 67% | $-310 | -$22,118 | 130.1% | $-22,431 (vs do-nothing $-18,760) |
| $162.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.70 | 3/5 | $5,456 | $5,367 | 54% | 69% | +$740 | -$16,963 | 99.8% | $-18,116 (vs do-nothing $-14,445) |
| $162.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $5,433 | $5,410 | 53% | 68% | +$655 | -$11,619 | 68.3% | $-13,611 (vs do-nothing $-9,940) |
| $162.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 1/5 | $9,375 | $9,417 | 53% | 68% | +$1,172 | -$5,999 | 35.3% | $-8,831 (vs do-nothing $-5,160) |
| $160 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $12.10 | 3/5 | $4,735 | $4,645 | 52% | 66% | $-248 | -$16,993 | 100.0% | $-18,146 (vs do-nothing $-14,475) |
| $160 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.80 | 3/5 | $6,075 | $5,986 | 50% | 67% | +$668 | -$17,383 | 102.3% | $-18,536 (vs do-nothing $-14,865) |
| $160 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.40 | 2/5 | $6,267 | $6,243 | 49% | 66% | +$651 | -$11,869 | 69.8% | $-13,861 (vs do-nothing $-10,190) |
| $160 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 1/5 | $11,775 | $11,817 | 47% | 66% | +$1,652 | -$6,089 | 35.8% | $-8,921 (vs do-nothing $-5,250) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.