5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $221.94 (banked floor $220.71) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $11,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $378/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-38,110 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $3.07 | $1,535 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 5 × $170 | 90% | $5,812 | $2,830 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $202.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 35.8% | 99+%hist 100% | 0%hist 1% | +0pp | $105 | $394 | -$5,419 | $5,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $202.50 35.8% OTM over spot $149.13 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.24 mid) = $105 credit for the 8d cycle → $394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $203.74) 99+% EV / mo +$392 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 31% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-303/mo median; plan ~$-206/mo after 68% keep · $-2,728 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.2-6.0], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,655 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $203 @ 72% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.72/sh now → $12.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $19 below CC-SS $221.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $203.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,764 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $202.50): -$5,727 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $225): +$22 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,051 (+$27,059 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,760, the opportunity cost of earning $394/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $175 | 7 Aug | 8d | 17.3% | 94%hist 100% | 12%hist 5% | +6pp | $1,115 | $4,181 | -$1,631 | $22,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $175 17.3% OTM over spot $149.13 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.49 mid) = $1,115 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,181/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $175) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $177.49) 96% EV / mo +$3,782 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,008/mo median; plan ~$685/mo after 68% keep · $6,719 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.3-5.5], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,300 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $181 @ 76% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.31/sh now → $10.83 mid-life (likely $8.42–$15.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 254 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $179 (overshoots $3.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $175 is $47 below CC-SS $221.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.23 collected) or spot ≥ $177.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $175)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,764 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $175): -$22,355 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,700 (+$10,410 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,410, the opportunity cost of earning $4,181/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $170 | 7 Aug | 8d | 14.0% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +9pp | $1,550 | $5,812 | — | $24,420 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $170 14.0% OTM over spot $149.13 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $3.60 mid) = $1,550 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $173.60) 93% EV / mo +$4,963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,805/mo median; plan ~$1,228/mo after 68% keep · $12,163 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.1-5.5], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,710 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $178 @ 77% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.87/sh now → $10.52 mid-life (likely $9.32–$15.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $173 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $52 below CC-SS $221.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $173.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,764 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $170): -$24,420 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,765 (+$8,345 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,475, the opportunity cost of earning $5,812/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $170 | 7 Aug | 8d | 14.0% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +9pp | $1,550 | $5,812 | +$0 | $24,420 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $170 14.0% OTM over spot $149.13 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $3.60 mid) = $1,550 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $170) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $173.60) 93% EV / mo +$4,963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,805/mo median; plan ~$1,228/mo after 68% keep · $12,163 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.1-5.5], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,710 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $178 @ 77% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.87/sh now → $10.52 mid-life (likely $9.32–$15.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 404 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $173 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $170 is $52 below CC-SS $221.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $173.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $170)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,764 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $170): -$24,420 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,765 (+$8,345 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,475, the opportunity cost of earning $5,812/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $157.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 5.6% | 72%hist 96% | 59%hist 43% | +34pp | $3,600 | $13,500 | +$7,688 | $28,620 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $157.50 5.6% OTM over spot $149.13 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $7.70 mid) = $3,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $13,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $157.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $165.20) 85% EV / mo +$9,237 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +34pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,424/mo median; plan ~$3,008/mo after 68% keep · $26,271 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.1-5.3], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,273 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $186 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.78/sh now → $9.75 mid-life (likely $11.29–$16.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,377 simulated challenges: the $158 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $161 (overshoots $3.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $157.50 is $64 below CC-SS $221.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.80/sh (~25% of the $7.20 collected) or spot ≥ $165.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $158)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $195.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,110 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,764 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $157.50): -$28,620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,965 (+$4,145 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,675, the opportunity cost of earning $13,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$32,764 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,291
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $170 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $5,812 | $5,434 | 90% | 93% | +$4,963 | -$24,420 | 143.6% | $-29,765 (vs do-nothing $-24,475) |
| $167.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 5/5 | $6,656 | $6,278 | 88% | 92% | +$5,445 | -$25,445 | 149.7% | $-30,790 (vs do-nothing $-25,500) |
| $165 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 4/5 | $6,600 | $6,244 | 84% | 90% | +$5,240 | -$21,016 | 123.6% | $-26,351 (vs do-nothing $-21,060) |
| $162.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 4/5 | $7,425 | $7,069 | 81% | 88% | +$5,547 | -$21,796 | 128.2% | $-27,131 (vs do-nothing $-21,840) |
| $160 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 3/5 | $6,581 | $6,247 | 76% | 86% | +$4,667 | -$16,827 | 99.0% | $-22,151 (vs do-nothing $-16,860) |
| $162.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 5/5 | $6,100 | $5,722 | 74% | 82% | +$3,172 | -$26,670 | 156.9% | $-32,015 (vs do-nothing $-26,725) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.20 | 3/5 | $8,100 | $7,766 | 72% | 85% | +$5,542 | -$17,172 | 101.0% | $-22,496 (vs do-nothing $-17,205) |
| $160 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.15 | 4/5 | $5,720 | $5,364 | 71% | 81% | +$2,887 | -$21,916 | 128.9% | $-27,251 (vs do-nothing $-21,960) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.95 | 4/5 | $6,360 | $6,004 | 67% | 79% | +$2,952 | -$22,596 | 132.9% | $-27,931 (vs do-nothing $-22,640) |
| $155 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.95 | 2/5 | $5,962 | $5,650 | 66% | 82% | +$3,721 | -$11,798 | 69.4% | $-17,111 (vs do-nothing $-11,820) |
| $157.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.80 | 5/5 | $6,000 | $5,622 | 66% | 78% | +$2,480 | -$27,820 | 163.6% | $-33,165 (vs do-nothing $-27,875) |
| $155 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.05 | 4/5 | $7,240 | $6,884 | 63% | 78% | +$3,167 | -$23,156 | 136.2% | $-28,491 (vs do-nothing $-23,200) |
| $155 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.90 | 4/5 | $5,945 | $5,589 | 62% | 77% | +$2,652 | -$22,416 | 131.9% | $-27,751 (vs do-nothing $-22,460) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $152.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.05 | 2/5 | $6,788 | $6,476 | 60% | 80% | +$3,890 | -$12,078 | 71.0% | $-17,391 (vs do-nothing $-12,100) |
| $152.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.90 | 3/5 | $5,940 | $5,606 | 59% | 76% | +$2,313 | -$17,862 | 105.1% | $-23,186 (vs do-nothing $-17,895) |
| $152.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $11.60 | 4/5 | $6,327 | $5,971 | 59% | 75% | +$2,495 | -$23,136 | 136.1% | $-28,471 (vs do-nothing $-23,180) |
| $150 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $13.05 | 4/5 | $7,118 | $6,762 | 55% | 74% | +$2,685 | -$23,556 | 138.6% | $-28,891 (vs do-nothing $-23,600) |
| $150 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.20 | 3/5 | $6,720 | $6,386 | 55% | 74% | +$2,444 | -$18,222 | 107.2% | $-23,546 (vs do-nothing $-18,255) |
| $150 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.15 | 2/5 | $7,612 | $7,300 | 54% | 79% | +$3,927 | -$12,358 | 72.7% | $-17,671 (vs do-nothing $-12,380) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.