5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $228.76 (banked floor $227.53) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,900/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $267/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-41,810 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 7 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $3.07 | $1,535 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 4 × $160 | 81% | $3,540 | $832 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $190 | 7 Aug | 8d | 27.8% | 98%hist 100% | 4%hist 1% | +0pp | $85 | $319 | -$3,221 | $19,297 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $190 27.8% OTM over spot $148.64 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.21 mid) = $85 credit for the 8d cycle → $319/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $190.21) 98% EV / mo +$230 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-8/mo median; plan ~$-5/mo after 68% keep · $-38 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.6-4.6], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,357 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $194 @ 71% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.73/sh now → $6.88 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $39 below CC-SS $228.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $190.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $197.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,810 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,506 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $190): -$19,297 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,601 (+$23,209 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,965, the opportunity cost of earning $319/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $167.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 12.7% | 92%hist 100% | 17%hist 5% | +6pp | $545 | $2,044 | -$1,496 | $30,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $167.50 12.7% OTM over spot $148.64 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.27 mid) = $545 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,044/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $167.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $168.78) 93% EV / mo +$1,521 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,173/mo median; plan ~$798/mo after 68% keep · $8,825 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.6-5.6], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,489 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $174 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.58/sh now → $6.07 mid-life (likely $4.85–$8.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 331 simulated challenges: the $168 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $170 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $167.50 is $61 below CC-SS $228.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.09 collected) or spot ≥ $168.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $168)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $197.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,810 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,506 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $167.50): -$30,087 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,391 (+$12,419 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,755, the opportunity cost of earning $2,044/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $165 | 7 Aug | 8d | 11.0% | 89%hist 99% | 22%hist 13% | +9pp | $755 | $2,831 | -$709 | $31,127 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $165 11.0% OTM over spot $148.64 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.64 mid) = $755 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,831/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $165) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $166.63) 91% EV / mo +$2,013 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,595/mo median; plan ~$1,085/mo after 68% keep · $12,070 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.1-5.7], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,234 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $174 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.45/sh now → $5.98 mid-life (likely $5.23–$8.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 475 simulated challenges: the $165 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $168 (overshoots $2.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $165 is $64 below CC-SS $228.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.51 collected) or spot ≥ $166.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $165)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $197.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,810 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,506 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $165): -$31,127 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,431 (+$11,379 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,795, the opportunity cost of earning $2,831/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $160 | 7 Aug | 8d | 7.6% | 81%hist 99% | 39%hist 18% | +10pp | $944 | $3,540 | — | $26,562 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $160 7.6% OTM over spot $148.64 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.56 mid) = $944 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $160) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $162.56) 86% EV / mo +$2,048 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 24% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,617/mo median; plan ~$1,099/mo after 68% keep · $12,884 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.1 mo [2.4-6.5], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,375 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $171 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.20/sh now → $5.80 mid-life (likely $5.85–$9.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 867 simulated challenges: the $160 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $163 (overshoots $2.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $160 is $69 below CC-SS $228.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.36 collected) or spot ≥ $162.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $160)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $197.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,810 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,506 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $160): -$26,562 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $220): -$866 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,732 (+$15,078 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,096, the opportunity cost of earning $3,540/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $155 | 7 Aug | 8d | 4.3% | 70%hist 80% | 62%hist 51% | +15pp | $1,875 | $7,031 | +$3,491 | $35,007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $155 4.3% OTM over spot $148.64 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $4.15 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,031/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $155) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $159.15) 79% EV / mo +$3,189 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,490/mo median; plan ~$1,693/mo after 68% keep · $18,745 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.3-6.1], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$933 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $176 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.62 mid-life (likely $6.63–$9.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,463 simulated challenges: the $155 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $158 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $155 is $74 below CC-SS $228.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.94/sh (~25% of the $3.75 collected) or spot ≥ $159.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $155)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $197.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.76, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,810 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,506 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $155): -$35,007 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,311 (+$7,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,636 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,675, the opportunity cost of earning $7,031/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.061 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$42,506 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,636
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.36 | 4/5 | $3,540 | $3,293 | 81% | 86% | +$2,048 | -$26,562 | 156.2% | $-26,732 (vs do-nothing $-23,096) |
| $157.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $4,253 | 76% | 83% | +$2,331 | -$27,306 | 160.6% | $-27,476 (vs do-nothing $-23,840) |
| $160 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 5/5 | $3,450 | $3,183 | 74% | 80% | +$1,135 | -$32,657 | 192.1% | $-31,961 (vs do-nothing $-28,325) |
| $157.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 5/5 | $4,150 | $3,883 | 70% | 78% | +$1,270 | -$33,557 | 197.4% | $-32,861 (vs do-nothing $-29,225) |
| $155 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 3/5 | $4,219 | $3,992 | 70% | 79% | +$1,914 | -$21,004 | 123.6% | $-22,041 (vs do-nothing $-18,405) |
| $157.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,483 | 68% | 77% | +$1,049 | -$32,882 | 193.4% | $-32,186 (vs do-nothing $-28,550) |
| $155 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 4/5 | $3,960 | $3,713 | 66% | 76% | +$1,099 | -$27,526 | 161.9% | $-27,696 (vs do-nothing $-24,060) |
| $155 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 4/5 | $3,491 | $3,244 | 64% | 74% | +$892 | -$26,946 | 158.5% | $-27,116 (vs do-nothing $-23,480) |
| $152.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 2/5 | $3,488 | $3,280 | 63% | 76% | +$1,364 | -$14,323 | 84.3% | $-16,226 (vs do-nothing $-12,590) |
| $152.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.85 | 3/5 | $3,510 | $3,283 | 61% | 73% | +$856 | -$21,124 | 124.3% | $-22,161 (vs do-nothing $-18,525) |
| $152.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.35 | 4/5 | $4,009 | $3,762 | 60% | 72% | +$906 | -$27,566 | 162.2% | $-27,736 (vs do-nothing $-24,100) |
| $150 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.65 | 2/5 | $4,238 | $4,030 | 56% | 73% | +$1,375 | -$14,623 | 86.0% | $-16,526 (vs do-nothing $-12,890) |
| $150 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.90 | 3/5 | $4,140 | $3,913 | 55% | 71% | +$877 | -$21,559 | 126.8% | $-22,596 (vs do-nothing $-18,960) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 4/5 | $4,582 | $4,335 | 55% | 70% | +$906 | -$28,146 | 165.6% | $-28,316 (vs do-nothing $-24,680) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.