50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,474/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $2,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 40 × $24 | 91% | $7,200 | $3,982 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 42 × $23 | 73% | $7,280 | $-376 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $26 | 10 Jul | 2d | 22.8% | 97% | 5% | $168 | $2,520 | -$4,680 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $26 22.8% OTM over spot $21.18 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $168 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $26.11) 98% EV / mo +$1,883 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,674 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $26.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $26): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $23.50): +$448 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,698 (+$448 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,352, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 27 × $24 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.3% | 91% | 19% | $324 | $4,860 | -$2,340 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $24 13.3% OTM over spot $21.18 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.15 mid) = $324 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,860/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $24.15) 92% EV / mo +$2,743 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,870 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 220 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $24.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (23 × $23.50): +$1,288 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,538 (+$1,288 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,512, the opportunity cost of earning $4,860/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $24 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.3% | 91% | 7% | $480 | $7,200 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $24 13.3% OTM over spot $21.18 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.15 mid) = $480 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $24.15) 92% EV / mo +$4,064 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,770 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 198 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $24.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $23.50): +$560 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,810 (+$560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,240, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $24 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.3% | 91% | 19% | $600 | $9,000 | +$1,800 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $24 13.3% OTM over spot $21.18 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.15 mid) = $600 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $24.15) 92% EV / mo +$5,080 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,463 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 181 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $24.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $24): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,250 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,800, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 44 × $22.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.2% | 77% | 48% | $968 | $14,520 | +$7,320 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $22.50 6.2% OTM over spot $21.18 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.35 mid) = $968 credit for the 2d cycle → $14,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $22.85) 82% EV / mo +$1,678 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,286 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 815 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $22.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $22.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$336 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,586 (+$336 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,464, the opportunity cost of earning $14,520/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 40 × $25 | 17 Jul | 9d | 18.0% | 88% | 26% | $760 | $2,533 | -$4,747 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $25 18.0% OTM over spot $21.18 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $760 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $25.29) 89% EV / mo +$576 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,918 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $25 @ 69% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.01/sh now → $1.42 mid-life (likely $1.31–$2.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 547 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $25.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $25): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $23.50): +$560 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,810 (+$560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,240, the opportunity cost of earning $2,533/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 48 × $24 | 17 Jul | 9d | 13.3% | 82% | 38% | $1,440 | $4,800 | -$2,480 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $24 13.3% OTM over spot $21.18 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $1,440 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $24.50) 85% EV / mo +$706 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,955 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $25 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 826 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $24.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $23.50): +$112 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,362 (+$112 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,688, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 42 × $23 | 17 Jul | 9d | 8.6% | 73% | 44% | $2,184 | $7,280 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $23 8.6% OTM over spot $21.18 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.73 mid) = $2,184 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $23.73) 80% EV / mo +$1,097 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,056 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $25 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.25 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,315 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $24 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $23.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $23): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $23.50): +$448 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,698 (+$448 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,352, the opportunity cost of earning $7,280/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $22 | 17 Jul | 9d | 3.9% | 63% | 79% | $4,324 | $14,413 | +$7,133 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $22 3.9% OTM over spot $21.18 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.05 mid) = $4,324 credit for the 9d cycle → $14,413/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $23.05) 74% EV / mo +$2,837 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,154 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,878 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $23 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22 is at/above CC-SS $21.18: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $23.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $22): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $23.50): +$168 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,418 (+$168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,050 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,632, the opportunity cost of earning $14,413/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.261 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,050
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 40/50 | $7,200 | $5,776 | 91% | 92% | +$4,064 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,290 (vs do-nothing $-1,760) |
| $23 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 44/50 | $7,260 | $5,416 | 83% | 86% | $-934 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,070 (vs do-nothing $-1,980) |
| $22.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 22/50 | $7,260 | $7,726 | 77% | 82% | +$839 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,302 (vs do-nothing $-748) |
| $23 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 42/50 | $7,280 | $5,646 | 73% | 80% | +$1,097 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,882 (vs do-nothing $-168) |
| $23 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 47/50 | $7,138 | $4,979 | 70% | 77% | +$471 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,225 (vs do-nothing +$1,175) |
| $22 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 14/50 | $7,140 | $8,446 | 69% | 77% | +$750 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,742 (vs do-nothing $-308) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 31/50 | $7,130 | $6,651 | 68% | 77% | +$1,196 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,453 (vs do-nothing +$403) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 45/50 | $7,256 | $5,307 | 66% | 74% | $-438 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,400 (vs do-nothing +$1,350) |
| $22 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 24/50 | $7,360 | $7,616 | 63% | 74% | +$1,449 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,914 (vs do-nothing +$864) |
| $22 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.10 | 35/50 | $7,219 | $6,320 | 61% | 72% | +$59 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,940 (vs do-nothing +$1,890) |
| $21.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 9/50 | $7,695 | $9,526 | 59% | 72% | +$1,381 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,059 (vs do-nothing +$9) |
| $21.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.44 | 27/50 | $7,290 | $7,231 | 57% | 71% | +$733 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,426 (vs do-nothing +$2,376) |
| $21 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 23/50 | $7,331 | $7,692 | 52% | 69% | +$750 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,258 (vs do-nothing +$2,208) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 16/50 | $7,467 | $8,563 | 51% | 69% | +$1,188 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,106 (vs do-nothing +$1,056) |
| $21 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 6/50 | $8,550 | $10,696 | 48% | 69% | +$2,281 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,176 (vs do-nothing +$126) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.