50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $22.17 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,702/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,435/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $6,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 48 × $25 | 96% | $7,920 | $4,350 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 44 × $24.50 | 78% | $7,920 | $1,367 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 41 × $26.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 19.6% | 99% | 1% | $164 | $2,460 | -$5,460 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $26.50 19.6% OTM over spot $22.17 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $164 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $26.55) 99+% EV / mo +$2,423 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,149 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $31 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26.50 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $26.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $26.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$1,080 Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,330 (+$1,080 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,920, the opportunity cost of earning $2,460/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 50 × $25.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 15.0% | 98% | 4% | $350 | $5,250 | -$2,670 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $25.50 15.0% OTM over spot $22.17 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.09 mid) = $350 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $25.59) 98% EV / mo +$4,897 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,462 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 104 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $26 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25.50 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $25.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $25.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,250 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,000, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 48 × $25 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.8% | 96% | 7% | $528 | $7,920 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $25 12.8% OTM over spot $22.17 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $528 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $25.12) 96% EV / mo +$7,069 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,025 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 201 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $26 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $25.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $25): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $23.50): +$240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,490 (+$240 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,760, the opportunity cost of earning $7,920/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $24.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.5% | 93% | 15% | $850 | $12,750 | +$4,830 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $24.50 10.5% OTM over spot $22.17 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $850 credit for the 2d cycle → $12,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $24.68) 94% EV / mo +$10,681 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,740 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.02/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.73–$1.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24.50 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $24.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $24.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,250 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,000, the opportunity cost of earning $12,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 44 × $24 | 10 Jul | 2d | 8.3% | 88% | 25% | $1,056 | $15,840 | +$7,920 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $24 8.3% OTM over spot $22.17 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.26 mid) = $1,056 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $24.26) 91% EV / mo +$11,899 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,007 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 530 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $24.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$720 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,970 (+$720 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,280, the opportunity cost of earning $15,840/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 43 × $27 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.8% | 92% | 17% | $731 | $2,437 | -$5,483 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $27 21.8% OTM over spot $22.17 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.22 mid) = $731 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,437/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $27) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $27.22) 92% EV / mo +$1,236 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,268 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.97/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.21–$1.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 376 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $28 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $27 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $27.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $27)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $27): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$840 Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,090 (+$840 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,160, the opportunity cost of earning $2,437/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 45 × $25.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 15.0% | 85% | 32% | $1,575 | $5,250 | -$2,670 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $25.50 15.0% OTM over spot $22.17 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.38 mid) = $1,575 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $25.88) 87% EV / mo +$2,338 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,166 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.28 mid-life (likely $1.19–$1.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 704 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25.50 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $25.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $25.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $23.50): +$600 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,850 (+$600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,400, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 44 × $24.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 10.5% | 78% | 37% | $2,376 | $7,920 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $24.50 10.5% OTM over spot $22.17 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.57 mid) = $2,376 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $25.07) 82% EV / mo +$2,894 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,899 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.69/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $1.28–$1.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,118 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24.50 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $25.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $24.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$720 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,970 (+$720 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,280, the opportunity cost of earning $7,920/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 48 × $23 | 17 Jul | 9d | 3.8% | 63% | 79% | $4,800 | $16,000 | +$8,080 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $23 3.8% OTM over spot $22.17 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.05 mid) = $4,800 credit for the 9d cycle → $16,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $24.05) 73% EV / mo +$3,864 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$421 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.45–$1.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,895 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $24 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23 is at/above CC-SS $22.17: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $24.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $22.17, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $23): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $23.50): +$240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,490 (+$240 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $12,250 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,760, the opportunity cost of earning $16,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.274 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $12,250
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 48/50 | $7,920 | $5,935 | 96% | 96% | +$7,069 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,018 (vs do-nothing $-5,232) |
| $24.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 31/50 | $7,905 | $9,745 | 93% | 94% | +$6,622 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,057 (vs do-nothing $-3,193) |
| $24 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 22/50 | $7,920 | $11,785 | 88% | 91% | +$5,950 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,138 (vs do-nothing $-2,112) |
| $23.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 15/50 | $7,875 | $13,315 | 78% | 84% | +$4,317 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,975 (vs do-nothing $-1,275) |
| $24.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 44/50 | $7,920 | $6,835 | 78% | 82% | +$2,894 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,346 (vs do-nothing $-2,904) |
| $24 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 36/50 | $8,040 | $8,755 | 73% | 79% | +$2,623 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,342 (vs do-nothing $-1,908) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 48/50 | $8,010 | $6,025 | 73% | 79% | +$2,270 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,762 (vs do-nothing $-1,488) |
| $23 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 11/50 | $8,085 | $14,425 | 70% | 79% | +$3,639 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,469 (vs do-nothing $-781) |
| $24 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 41/50 | $7,995 | $7,585 | 69% | 77% | +$2,005 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,594 (vs do-nothing $-656) |
| $23.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 29/50 | $7,927 | $10,217 | 68% | 76% | +$2,236 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,148 (vs do-nothing $-1,102) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 35/50 | $7,875 | $8,815 | 65% | 75% | +$1,686 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,250 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 24/50 | $8,000 | $11,415 | 63% | 73% | +$1,932 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,770 (vs do-nothing $-480) |
| $23 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 30/50 | $7,875 | $9,940 | 61% | 72% | +$1,512 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,850 (vs do-nothing +$600) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 8/50 | $8,040 | $15,055 | 59% | 74% | +$2,789 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,826 (vs do-nothing $-424) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 20/50 | $8,067 | $12,382 | 57% | 71% | +$1,643 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,270 (vs do-nothing +$20) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 27/50 | $8,151 | $10,891 | 57% | 70% | +$1,345 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,357 (vs do-nothing +$1,107) |
| $22 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.84 | 23/50 | $7,935 | $11,575 | 53% | 68% | +$1,108 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,342 (vs do-nothing +$1,092) |
| $22 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 17/50 | $8,217 | $13,207 | 51% | 68% | +$1,386 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,394 (vs do-nothing +$144) |
| $22 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 6/50 | $8,190 | $15,655 | 48% | 68% | +$2,134 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,977 (vs do-nothing $-273) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.