50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.39 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,844/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,435/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $4,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 41 × $24 | 92% | $7,995 | $5,585 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 41 × $23.50 | 76% | $8,063 | $1,684 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 41 × $26 | 10 Jul | 2d | 21.6% | 98% | 3% | $164 | $2,460 | -$5,535 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $26 21.6% OTM over spot $21.39 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $164 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $26.05) 99% EV / mo +$2,227 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,475 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $30 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.25/sh now → $0.89 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $26.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $26): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,496 (+$846 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,854, the opportunity cost of earning $2,460/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 50 × $25 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.9% | 97% | 7% | $350 | $5,250 | -$2,745 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $25 16.9% OTM over spot $21.39 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.09 mid) = $350 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $25.09) 97% EV / mo +$4,400 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,824 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.18/sh now → $0.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $25.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $25): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,650 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,700, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $24 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.2% | 92% | 5% | $533 | $7,995 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $24 12.2% OTM over spot $21.39 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $533 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,995/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $24.16) 93% EV / mo +$5,794 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,680 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 150 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $24.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,496 (+$846 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,854, the opportunity cost of earning $7,995/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $23.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 9.9% | 91% | 18% | $900 | $13,500 | +$5,505 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $23.50 9.9% OTM over spot $21.39 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $900 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $23.70) 93% EV / mo +$10,810 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,893 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 294 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $24 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $23.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $23.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,650 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,700, the opportunity cost of earning $13,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 40 × $23 | 10 Jul | 2d | 7.5% | 85% | 30% | $1,080 | $16,200 | +$8,205 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $23 7.5% OTM over spot $21.39 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.30 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $23.30) 89% EV / mo +$11,598 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,855 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 517 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $24 (overshoots $0.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $23.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $23): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $23.50): +$940 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,590 (+$940 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,760, the opportunity cost of earning $16,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 43 × $26.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 23.9% | 93% | 15% | $731 | $2,437 | -$5,627 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $26.50 23.9% OTM over spot $21.39 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.20 mid) = $731 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,437/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $26.70) 93% EV / mo +$1,416 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,463 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.04/sh now → $1.44 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $26.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $26.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$658 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,308 (+$658 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,042, the opportunity cost of earning $2,437/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $26 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.6% | 91% | 19% | $1,000 | $3,333 | -$4,730 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $26 21.6% OTM over spot $21.39 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.26 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $26.25) 92% EV / mo +$1,767 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,991 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.98/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.17–$1.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 399 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $26.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $26): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,650 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,700, the opportunity cost of earning $3,333/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 50 × $25 | 17 Jul | 9d | 16.9% | 86% | 28% | $1,600 | $5,333 | -$2,730 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $25 16.9% OTM over spot $21.39 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $25.34) 88% EV / mo +$2,558 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,978 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life (likely $1.29–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 629 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $26 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $25.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $25): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,650 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,700, the opportunity cost of earning $5,333/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $23.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 9.9% | 76% | 39% | $2,419 | $8,063 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $23.50 9.9% OTM over spot $21.39 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.62 mid) = $2,419 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,063/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $24.12) 81% EV / mo +$2,745 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,484 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.69/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $1.33–$1.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,171 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $24 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $24.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $23.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$846 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,496 (+$846 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,854, the opportunity cost of earning $8,063/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 44 × $22 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.9% | 60% | 84% | $4,796 | $15,987 | +$7,923 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $22 2.9% OTM over spot $21.39 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.12 mid) = $4,796 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,987/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $23.12) 72% EV / mo +$3,680 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$38 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.45–$2.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,018 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $23 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22 is at/above CC-SS $21.39: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.09 collected) or spot ≥ $23.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $30.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.39, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $4,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $22): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$564 Total Position P&L @ SS: $5,214 (+$564 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $9,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,136, the opportunity cost of earning $15,987/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.257 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $9,350
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 41/50 | $7,995 | $7,147 | 92% | 93% | +$5,794 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,029 (vs do-nothing $-3,321) |
| $23.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 30/50 | $8,100 | $9,190 | 91% | 93% | +$6,486 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,070 (vs do-nothing $-2,280) |
| $23 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 20/50 | $8,100 | $10,953 | 85% | 89% | +$5,799 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,010 (vs do-nothing $-1,340) |
| $22.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 14/50 | $7,980 | $11,890 | 77% | 84% | +$4,798 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,566 (vs do-nothing $-784) |
| $23.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 41/50 | $8,063 | $7,215 | 76% | 81% | +$2,745 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,915 (vs do-nothing $-1,435) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 45/50 | $7,931 | $6,378 | 72% | 79% | +$2,062 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,350 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 33/50 | $8,030 | $8,592 | 71% | 78% | +$2,433 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,657 (vs do-nothing $-693) |
| $23 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 41/50 | $7,995 | $7,147 | 68% | 76% | +$1,543 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,760 (vs do-nothing +$410) |
| $22 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 10/50 | $8,100 | $12,715 | 67% | 79% | +$3,952 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,950 (vs do-nothing $-400) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.90 | 27/50 | $8,100 | $9,719 | 66% | 75% | +$2,181 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,242 (vs do-nothing $-108) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 34/50 | $8,096 | $8,482 | 64% | 74% | +$1,686 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,472 (vs do-nothing +$1,122) |
| $22 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 22/50 | $7,993 | $10,494 | 60% | 72% | +$1,840 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,680 (vs do-nothing +$330) |
| $22 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 29/50 | $7,993 | $9,260 | 59% | 72% | +$1,489 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,887 (vs do-nothing +$1,537) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 25/50 | $7,922 | $9,894 | 55% | 70% | +$1,300 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,225 (vs do-nothing +$1,875) |
| $21.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 7/50 | $7,980 | $13,124 | 54% | 73% | +$3,076 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,224 (vs do-nothing $-126) |
| $21 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 22/50 | $8,044 | $10,544 | 50% | 68% | +$1,213 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,714 (vs do-nothing +$1,364) |
| $21 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 16/50 | $8,373 | $11,931 | 48% | 67% | +$1,395 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,734 (vs do-nothing +$384) |
| $21 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 6/50 | $9,270 | $14,590 | 41% | 68% | +$2,678 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,170 (vs do-nothing $-180) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.