50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.04 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,100/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,605/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $350 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 41 × $23 | 76% | $8,149 | $2,064 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 44 × $25.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 21.2% | 92% | 16% | $704 | $2,640 | -$5,509 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $25.50 21.2% OTM over spot $21.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $704 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $25.68) 93% EV / mo +$1,555 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,788 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.76/sh now → $1.25 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.04: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $25.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $25.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$438 Total Position P&L @ SS: $788 (+$438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,000 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,212, the opportunity cost of earning $2,640/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $25 | 17 Jul | 8d | 18.8% | 90% | 20% | $1,000 | $3,750 | -$4,399 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $25 18.8% OTM over spot $21.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.23 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $25.23) 91% EV / mo +$2,065 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,049 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.71/sh now → $1.21 mid-life (likely $1.07–$1.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 416 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.04: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $25.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $25): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $350 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,000 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,650, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 43 × $24 | 17 Jul | 8d | 14.1% | 85% | 32% | $1,419 | $5,321 | -$2,828 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $24 14.1% OTM over spot $21.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid) = $1,419 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,321/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $24.35) 87% EV / mo +$2,558 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,461 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $1.12–$1.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 710 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $25 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.04: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $24.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$511 Total Position P&L @ SS: $861 (+$511 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,000 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,139, the opportunity cost of earning $5,321/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 41 × $23 | 17 Jul | 8d | 9.3% | 76% | 37% | $2,173 | $8,149 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $23 9.3% OTM over spot $21.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.55 mid) = $2,173 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,149/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $23.55) 81% EV / mo +$3,146 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,181 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.15–$1.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,118 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $24 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23 is at/above CC-SS $21.04: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $23.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $23): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$657 Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,007 (+$657 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,000 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,993, the opportunity cost of earning $8,149/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $21 | 17 Jul | 8d | -0.2% | 52% | 99+% | $4,410 | $16,537 | +$8,389 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $21 0.2% ITM over spot $21.04 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.29 mid) = $4,410 credit for the 8d cycle → $16,537/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $22.30) 69% EV / mo +$3,227 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,179 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.30/sh now → $0.92 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $21 is at/above CC-SS $21.04: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $22.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $21): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $23.50): +$1,095 Total Position P&L @ SS: $1,445 (+$1,095 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,000 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,555, the opportunity cost of earning $16,537/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.256 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,000
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 41/50 | $8,149 | $6,857 | 76% | 81% | +$3,146 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,180 (vs do-nothing $-820) |
| $23 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 47/50 | $8,084 | $5,917 | 71% | 78% | +$2,080 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,611 (vs do-nothing +$611) |
| $22.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 33/50 | $8,291 | $8,168 | 71% | 78% | +$2,814 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,802 (vs do-nothing $-198) |
| $22.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 40/50 | $8,080 | $6,935 | 67% | 76% | +$1,789 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,120 (vs do-nothing +$1,120) |
| $22 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 26/50 | $8,092 | $8,991 | 65% | 75% | +$2,303 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,260 (vs do-nothing +$260) |
| $22 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 34/50 | $8,228 | $7,959 | 63% | 73% | +$1,700 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,632 (vs do-nothing +$1,632) |
| $21.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.42 | 29/50 | $8,236 | $8,697 | 58% | 71% | +$1,501 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,001 (vs do-nothing +$2,001) |
| $21 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 25/50 | $8,250 | $9,295 | 53% | 69% | +$1,295 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,200 (vs do-nothing +$2,200) |
| $21 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 18/50 | $8,505 | $10,572 | 52% | 69% | +$1,660 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,882 (vs do-nothing +$882) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.