50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,900/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,447/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $7,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 35 × $23.50 | 72% | $6,562 | $1,561 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 35 × $25.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 16.3% | 87% | 26% | $665 | $2,494 | -$4,069 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $25.50 16.3% OTM over spot $21.93 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid) = $665 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,494/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $25.79) 89% EV / mo +$689 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,720 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.86–$1.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 509 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.93: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $25.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $25.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $23.50): +$1,215 Total Position P&L @ SS: $8,515 (+$1,215 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,835, the opportunity cost of earning $2,494/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 48 × $25 | 17 Jul | 8d | 14.0% | 85% | 32% | $1,152 | $4,320 | -$2,243 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $25 14.0% OTM over spot $21.93 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.32 mid) = $1,152 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $25.32) 87% EV / mo +$1,022 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,347 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.33/sh now → $0.94 mid-life (likely $0.90–$1.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 701 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $26 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.93: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $25.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $25): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $23.50): +$162 Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,462 (+$162 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,888, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $23.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 7.2% | 72% | 45% | $1,750 | $6,562 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $23.50 7.2% OTM over spot $21.93 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.61 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $24.11) 78% EV / mo +$817 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,227 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.20/sh now → $0.85 mid-life (likely $1.01–$1.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,344 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $24 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.93: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $24.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $23.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (15 × $23.50): +$1,215 Total Position P&L @ SS: $8,515 (+$1,215 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,835, the opportunity cost of earning $6,562/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 46 × $22.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.6% | 60% | 84% | $3,450 | $12,938 | +$6,375 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $22.50 2.6% OTM over spot $21.93 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.88 mid) = $3,450 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $23.38) 71% EV / mo $-111 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$206 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $28 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,993 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $23 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.93: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $23.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.28 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $22.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $23.50): +$324 Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,624 (+$324 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,350 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,726, the opportunity cost of earning $12,938/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.278 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $11,350
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 35/50 | $6,562 | $6,545 | 72% | 78% | +$817 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,265 (vs do-nothing $-1,085) |
| $24 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 50/50 | $6,500 | $4,053 | 72% | 78% | +$87 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,550 (vs do-nothing $-800) |
| $23.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 40/50 | $6,480 | $5,653 | 68% | 76% | +$202 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,350 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 29/50 | $6,634 | $7,588 | 66% | 74% | +$339 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,770 (vs do-nothing $-580) |
| $23 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 35/50 | $6,510 | $6,493 | 64% | 73% | $-161 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,770 (vs do-nothing +$420) |
| $22.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 23/50 | $6,469 | $8,395 | 60% | 71% | $-55 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,212 (vs do-nothing $-138) |
| $22.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 30/50 | $6,540 | $7,333 | 59% | 70% | $-349 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,190 (vs do-nothing +$840) |
| $22 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 25/50 | $6,450 | $8,053 | 54% | 68% | $-408 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,550 (vs do-nothing +$1,200) |
| $22 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 19/50 | $6,769 | $9,343 | 54% | 66% | $-174 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,616 (vs do-nothing +$266) |
| $21.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 21/50 | $6,594 | $8,845 | 50% | 66% | $-228 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,043 (vs do-nothing +$693) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.