50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.84 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,821/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,421/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $6,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 43 × $24 | 79% | $8,477 | $2,298 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 41 × $26.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 21.3% | 93% | 14% | $574 | $2,460 | -$6,017 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $26.50 21.3% OTM over spot $21.84 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.16 mid) = $574 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $26.66) 94% EV / mo +$1,479 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,459 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $31 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.74/sh now → $1.23 mid-life (likely $1.00–$1.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 236 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $26.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $26.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$882 Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,082 (+$882 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,018, the opportunity cost of earning $2,460/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $26 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.0% | 91% | 18% | $900 | $3,857 | -$4,620 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $26 19.0% OTM over spot $21.84 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $900 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $26.20) 92% EV / mo +$2,244 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,055 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26 is at/above CC-SS $21.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $26.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $26): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,200 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,857/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 45 × $25 | 17 Jul | 7d | 14.4% | 86% | 28% | $1,305 | $5,593 | -$2,884 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $25 14.4% OTM over spot $21.84 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.30 mid) = $1,305 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,593/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $25.30) 88% EV / mo +$2,873 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,733 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.58/sh now → $1.12 mid-life (likely $1.06–$1.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 608 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $25.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $25): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $23.50): +$490 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,690 (+$490 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,410, the opportunity cost of earning $5,593/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 43 × $24 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.9% | 79% | 32% | $1,978 | $8,477 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $24 9.9% OTM over spot $21.84 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid) = $1,978 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,477/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $24.48) 83% EV / mo +$3,549 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,537 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.11–$1.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 958 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $24.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$686 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,886 (+$686 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,214, the opportunity cost of earning $8,477/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 44 × $22.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.0% | 62% | 80% | $4,004 | $17,160 | +$8,683 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $22.50 3.0% OTM over spot $21.84 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.97 mid) = $4,004 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $23.46) 74% EV / mo +$4,726 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$175 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $1.25–$1.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,894 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.84: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.91 collected) or spot ≥ $23.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $22.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$588 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,788 (+$588 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $11,100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,312, the opportunity cost of earning $17,160/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.266 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $11,100
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 43/50 | $8,477 | $7,527 | 79% | 83% | +$3,549 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,864 (vs do-nothing $-2,236) |
| $23.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 34/50 | $8,451 | $9,391 | 74% | 80% | +$3,125 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,740 (vs do-nothing $-1,360) |
| $24 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 48/50 | $8,537 | $6,537 | 73% | 79% | +$2,553 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,380 (vs do-nothing $-720) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 41/50 | $8,610 | $8,079 | 69% | 77% | +$2,323 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,100 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 27/50 | $8,447 | $10,857 | 68% | 76% | +$2,640 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,425 (vs do-nothing $-675) |
| $23.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 42/50 | $8,460 | $7,719 | 67% | 76% | +$1,950 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,906 (vs do-nothing +$1,806) |
| $23 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 35/50 | $8,550 | $9,279 | 65% | 75% | +$2,001 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,660 (vs do-nothing +$560) |
| $23 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.59 | 38/50 | $8,631 | $8,731 | 63% | 74% | +$1,783 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,418 (vs do-nothing +$2,318) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 22/50 | $8,580 | $12,039 | 62% | 74% | +$2,363 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,946 (vs do-nothing $-154) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 30/50 | $8,679 | $10,458 | 60% | 72% | +$1,902 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,210 (vs do-nothing +$1,110) |
| $22.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 33/50 | $8,486 | $9,635 | 60% | 72% | +$1,605 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,806 (vs do-nothing +$2,706) |
| $22 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 30/50 | $8,614 | $10,394 | 56% | 71% | +$1,414 | -$0 | 0.0% | $14,190 (vs do-nothing +$3,090) |
| $22 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 25/50 | $8,411 | $11,240 | 55% | 70% | +$1,630 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,575 (vs do-nothing +$1,475) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 18/50 | $8,640 | $12,939 | 55% | 70% | +$1,889 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,352 (vs do-nothing +$252) |
| $21.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 27/50 | $8,679 | $11,088 | 52% | 69% | +$1,259 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,598 (vs do-nothing +$2,498) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 22/50 | $8,533 | $11,992 | 50% | 68% | +$1,424 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,167 (vs do-nothing +$1,067) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.