50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,661/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,421/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $6,175 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 50 × $24 | 81% | $8,357 | $1,531 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 44 × $26.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.8% | 95% | 11% | $572 | $2,451 | -$5,906 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $26.50 22.8% OTM over spot $21.57 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid) = $572 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,451/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $26.65) 95% EV / mo +$1,787 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,870 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.75/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 189 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $26.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $26.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$522 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,697 (+$522 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,525 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,828, the opportunity cost of earning $2,451/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $25.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.2% | 91% | 19% | $1,000 | $4,286 | -$4,071 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $25.50 18.2% OTM over spot $21.57 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $25.73) 92% EV / mo +$2,596 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,822 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 367 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $25.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $25.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,175 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,525 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,350, the opportunity cost of earning $4,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 42 × $24.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.6% | 85% | 31% | $1,302 | $5,580 | -$2,777 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $24.50 13.6% OTM over spot $21.57 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid) = $1,302 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $24.83) 87% EV / mo +$2,600 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,292 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.55/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 670 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $24.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $24.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $23.50): +$696 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,871 (+$696 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,525 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,654, the opportunity cost of earning $5,580/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 50 × $24 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.2% | 81% | 30% | $1,950 | $8,357 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $24 11.2% OTM over spot $21.57 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $1,950 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,357/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $24.41) 84% EV / mo +$3,347 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,347 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.12–$1.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 902 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $24.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $24): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,175 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,525 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,350, the opportunity cost of earning $8,357/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $22 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 58% | 87% | $3,977 | $17,044 | +$8,687 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $22 2.0% OTM over spot $21.57 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid) = $3,977 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,044/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $23.02) 71% EV / mo +$3,393 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$178 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $1.25–$1.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,065 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22 is at/above CC-SS $21.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $23.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $22): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$783 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,958 (+$783 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,525 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,567, the opportunity cost of earning $17,044/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.255 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $10,525
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 50/50 | $8,357 | $5,937 | 81% | 84% | +$3,347 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,125 (vs do-nothing $-2,400) |
| $23.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 40/50 | $8,400 | $7,844 | 76% | 81% | +$2,839 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,005 (vs do-nothing $-1,520) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 45/50 | $8,389 | $6,901 | 71% | 78% | +$2,326 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,525 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 31/50 | $8,370 | $9,492 | 71% | 78% | +$2,496 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,781 (vs do-nothing $-744) |
| $23.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 47/50 | $8,393 | $6,532 | 68% | 77% | +$1,706 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,311 (vs do-nothing +$1,786) |
| $23 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.02 | 39/50 | $8,524 | $8,154 | 67% | 76% | +$2,110 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,110 (vs do-nothing +$585) |
| $23 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 42/50 | $8,400 | $7,471 | 65% | 75% | +$1,450 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,751 (vs do-nothing +$2,226) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 26/50 | $8,580 | $10,634 | 65% | 74% | +$1,989 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,265 (vs do-nothing $-260) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 33/50 | $8,486 | $9,234 | 63% | 73% | +$1,896 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,614 (vs do-nothing +$1,089) |
| $22.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 37/50 | $8,510 | $8,513 | 62% | 73% | +$1,418 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,263 (vs do-nothing +$2,738) |
| $22 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 21/50 | $8,730 | $11,716 | 58% | 71% | +$1,738 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,735 (vs do-nothing +$210) |
| $22 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 33/50 | $8,533 | $9,282 | 58% | 71% | +$1,240 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,627 (vs do-nothing +$3,102) |
| $22 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 28/50 | $8,460 | $10,141 | 58% | 71% | +$1,713 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,037 (vs do-nothing +$1,512) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 29/50 | $8,410 | $9,904 | 54% | 70% | +$1,055 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,672 (vs do-nothing +$3,146) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 24/50 | $8,383 | $10,809 | 53% | 69% | +$1,452 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,169 (vs do-nothing +$1,644) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.