50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.66 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,804/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,421/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $6,175 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 47 × $24 | 81% | $8,057 | $1,852 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 44 × $26.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 22.4% | 93% | 14% | $572 | $2,451 | -$5,606 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $26.50 22.4% OTM over spot $21.66 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.15 mid) = $572 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,451/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $26.65) 94% EV / mo +$1,455 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,925 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.77/sh now → $1.25 mid-life (likely $0.94–$1.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 177 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $26.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $26.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$528 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,703 (+$528 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,872, the opportunity cost of earning $2,451/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $26 | 17 Jul | 7d | 20.1% | 92% | 17% | $800 | $3,429 | -$4,629 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $26 20.1% OTM over spot $21.66 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid) = $800 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $26) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $26.18) 93% EV / mo +$1,935 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,259 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $30 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.71/sh now → $1.21 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 273 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $26 is at/above CC-SS $21.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $26.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $26): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,175 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,400, the opportunity cost of earning $3,429/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 49 × $25 | 17 Jul | 7d | 15.4% | 87% | 26% | $1,225 | $5,250 | -$2,807 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $25 15.4% OTM over spot $21.66 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $1,225 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $25.27) 89% EV / mo +$2,608 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,354 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.61/sh now → $1.14 mid-life (likely $1.01–$1.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 508 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $25.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $25): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $23.50): +$88 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,263 (+$88 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,312, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 47 × $24 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.8% | 81% | 29% | $1,880 | $8,057 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $24 10.8% OTM over spot $21.66 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $1,880 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,057/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $24.42) 84% EV / mo +$3,539 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,136 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 866 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $24.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $23.50): +$264 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,439 (+$264 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,136, the opportunity cost of earning $8,057/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $22.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.9% | 64% | 75% | $3,713 | $15,913 | +$7,856 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $22.50 3.9% OTM over spot $21.66 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.84 mid) = $3,713 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,913/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $23.34) 75% EV / mo +$4,292 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$820 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.22–$1.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,754 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $23.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $22.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $23.50): +$264 Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,439 (+$264 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,136, the opportunity cost of earning $15,913/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.261 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $10,575
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 47/50 | $8,057 | $6,202 | 81% | 84% | +$3,539 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,319 (vs do-nothing $-2,256) |
| $23.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 37/50 | $7,929 | $7,959 | 76% | 81% | +$2,929 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,169 (vs do-nothing $-1,406) |
| $24 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 50/50 | $8,036 | $5,615 | 74% | 80% | +$2,328 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,925 (vs do-nothing $-650) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 42/50 | $7,920 | $7,008 | 71% | 78% | +$2,047 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,575 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 30/50 | $8,100 | $9,451 | 71% | 78% | +$2,569 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,825 (vs do-nothing $-750) |
| $23.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 47/50 | $7,990 | $6,135 | 68% | 76% | +$1,181 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,032 (vs do-nothing +$1,457) |
| $23 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 36/50 | $7,946 | $8,165 | 66% | 75% | +$1,809 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,115 (vs do-nothing +$540) |
| $23 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 40/50 | $8,000 | $7,465 | 65% | 75% | +$1,269 | -$0 | 0.0% | $12,655 (vs do-nothing +$2,080) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 24/50 | $8,126 | $10,608 | 64% | 75% | +$2,192 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,359 (vs do-nothing $-216) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 31/50 | $7,971 | $9,134 | 62% | 73% | +$1,565 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,567 (vs do-nothing +$992) |
| $22.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 35/50 | $8,050 | $8,458 | 61% | 72% | +$1,235 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,130 (vs do-nothing +$2,555) |
| $22 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 20/50 | $8,314 | $11,551 | 57% | 71% | +$1,768 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,755 (vs do-nothing +$180) |
| $22 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 32/50 | $8,046 | $9,019 | 57% | 71% | +$866 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,391 (vs do-nothing +$2,816) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 27/50 | $8,100 | $10,017 | 57% | 70% | +$1,378 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,979 (vs do-nothing +$1,404) |
| $21.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.98 | 28/50 | $7,920 | $9,648 | 53% | 69% | +$715 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,221 (vs do-nothing +$2,646) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 23/50 | $8,034 | $10,704 | 52% | 68% | +$1,183 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,944 (vs do-nothing +$1,368) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.