FORTRESS FIGHT: RIOT @ $21.79

BE SS: $23.65  |  CC-SS: $21.79  |  50 contracts (5,000 sh)  |  2026-07-10 03:38 |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RIOT @ $21.79   UNDERWATER $1.86 (7.9% below BE SS)

50 contracts (5,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $23.65  |  CC-SS: $21.79  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$30,601(ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000
Normal income ref$16,286/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$2,421/mo
Unrealized P&L$6,175fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,143/mo
HEDGE COVER
$2,421/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$16,286/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.79 (probe: $22C 14d) still earns $16,286/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
Hole (after banked)
$0
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 14 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.89 (+42%) · daily UBB $31.21 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 44 contracts at $24 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($8,143/mo); it brings $8,297/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 45 × $22.50/7d for $16,586/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 41 × $26.50/7d (93% survival, $2,460/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $24, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 44 contracts realizes $5,346 and cuts bleed by $2,130/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 44 × $24, 79% survival, $8,297/mo (E[net] $2,237/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 7d44 × $2479%$8,297$2,237

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $2,237/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 44 × $24 (primary), 79% survival, breach 21%, $8,297/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $25 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 21% → 13%) for $2,897/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $25 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect RIOT to stay flat-to-down near term.
RIOT  spot $21.79 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge41 × $26.5017 Jul7d21.6%93%14%$574$2,460-$5,837$0
Sell 41 × $26.50 21.6% OTM over spot $21.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.16 mid)
= $574 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,460/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $26.50)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $26.66)
94%
EV / mo
+$1,484
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
7%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,511
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$30 @ 78% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.75/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.66)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 211 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (41 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.67/sh+$2,762
cycle +$3,336
[+$2,709…+$4,043] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
+$37,550 SAFE
cap gain +$31,375
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2824 Jul 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$607
cycle +$1,181
[+$286…+$1,690] · 84% credit
74%
surv 64%
+$42,005 SAFE
cap gain +$35,830
Max even-money escape in the band~$3031 Jul 202618d left+$0.10/sh+$391
cycle +$965
[-$98…+$1,635] · 71% credit
78%
surv 73%
+$52,669 SAFE
cap gain +$46,494
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,460/mo
vs 50% target ($8,143/mo)-70%
vs normal income ($16,286/mo)15% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,852/mo
Downside budget
✓ $26.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.79: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($0)0.0%
… as % of ML ($30,601)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (41 ct)$5,002
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $26.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $26.23Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$26-26.66
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $26.66
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$26.50 (1.7σ)$574$34,788+$28,613+$9,020
+2.5%$27.16 (2.0σ)$-2,142$35,676+$29,501+$9,020
+5%$27.83 (2.2σ)$-4,859$36,564+$30,389+$9,020
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (41 × $26.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (9 × $23.50): +$846
Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,021 (+$846 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,854, the opportunity cost of earning $2,460/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield50 × $2617 Jul7d19.3%91%18%$850$3,643-$4,654$0
Sell 50 × $26 19.3% OTM over spot $21.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.18 mid)
= $850 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,643/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $26.18)
92%
EV / mo
+$2,053
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,165
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$29 @ 79% POP
73% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.70/sh now → $1.20 mid-life (likely $0.96–$1.62)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 301 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $27 (overshoots $0.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (50 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.65/sh+$3,268
cycle +$4,118
[+$3,207…+$4,735] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
+$37,016 SAFE
cap gain +$30,841
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2724 Jul 202610d left+$0.13/sh+$647
cycle +$1,497
[+$146…+$1,775] · 79% credit
74%
surv 64%
+$42,098 SAFE
cap gain +$35,923
Max even-money escape in the band~$2931 Jul 202618d left+$0.07/sh+$331
cycle +$1,181
[-$454…+$1,578] · 65% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$54,462 SAFE
cap gain +$48,287
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,643/mo
vs 50% target ($8,143/mo)-55%
vs normal income ($16,286/mo)22% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,222/mo
Downside budget
✓ $26 is at/above CC-SS $21.79: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($0)0.0%
… as % of ML ($30,601)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (50 ct)$6,125
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $26.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $25.74Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$26-26.18
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $26.18
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$26.00 (1.5σ)$850$33,748+$27,573+$8,650
+2.5%$26.65 (1.8σ)$-2,400$34,619+$28,444+$8,650
+5%$27.30 (2.0σ)$-5,650$35,490+$29,315+$8,650
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (50 × $26): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,175 (+$0 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,700, the opportunity cost of earning $3,643/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean45 × $2517 Jul7d14.8%87%27%$1,260$5,400-$2,897$0
Sell 45 × $25 14.8% OTM over spot $21.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid)
= $1,260 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,400/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $25)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $25.29)
89%
EV / mo
+$2,766
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
18%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$3,826
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$29 @ 82% POP
79% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.70)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 544 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (45 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2524 Jul 202610d left+$0.61/sh+$2,765
cycle +$4,025
[+$2,371…+$3,444] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
+$30,303 SAFE
cap gain +$24,128
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2831 Jul 202618d left+$0.14/sh+$622
cycle +$1,882
[-$404…+$1,224] · 60% credit
78%
surv 71%
+$44,016 SAFE
cap gain +$37,841
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2624 Jul 202610d left+$0.09/sh+$420
cycle +$1,680
[-$337…+$939] · 59% credit
74%
surv 65%
+$35,054 SAFE
cap gain +$28,879
Max even-money escape in the band~$2831 Jul 202618d left+$0.01/sh+$45
cycle +$1,305
[-$1,063…+$631] · 39% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$46,359 SAFE
cap gain +$40,184
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$2931 Jul 202618d left-$0.23/sh-$1,053
cycle +$207
[-$2,370…-$570] · 15% credit
82%
surv 79%
+$51,101 SAFE
cap gain +$44,926
budget: banked $1,260 debit $1,053 (84% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$207 cash · rolled 45 ct earn ≈ $6,721/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,400/mo
vs 50% target ($8,143/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($16,286/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,987/mo
Downside budget
✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $21.79: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($0)0.0%
… as % of ML ($30,601)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (45 ct)$5,513
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $25.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $24.75Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$25-25.29
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $25.29
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$25.00 (1.2σ)$1,260$27,538+$21,363+$3,780
+2.5%$25.62 (1.4σ)$-1,552$28,376+$22,201+$3,780
+5%$26.25 (1.6σ)$-4,365$29,213+$23,038+$3,780
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (45 × $25): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $23.50): +$470
Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,645 (+$470 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,230, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal44 × $2417 Jul7d10.2%79%30%$1,936$8,297$0
Sell 44 × $24 10.2% OTM over spot $21.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.46 mid)
= $1,936 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,297/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $24)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $24.46)
83%
EV / mo
+$3,478
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
30%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,725
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$29 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.07–$1.74)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.62/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 910 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (44 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2424 Jul 202610d left+$0.58/sh+$2,535
cycle +$4,471
[+$1,999…+$3,032] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
+$24,953 SAFE
cap gain +$18,778
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2631 Jul 202618d left+$0.25/sh+$1,092
cycle +$3,028
[+$19…+$1,350] · 76% credit
77%
surv 69%
+$36,225 SAFE
cap gain +$30,050
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2524 Jul 202610d left+$0.06/sh+$258
cycle +$2,194
[-$643…+$447] · 42% credit
75%
surv 65%
+$29,650 SAFE
cap gain +$23,475
Max even-money escape in the band~$2731 Jul 202618d left+$0.08/sh+$360
cycle +$2,296
[-$867…+$564] · 41% credit
78%
surv 72%
+$38,362 SAFE
cap gain +$32,187
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$2931 Jul 202618d left-$0.37/sh-$1,632
cycle +$304
[-$3,364…-$1,555] · 3% credit
85%
surv 82%
+$47,850 SAFE
cap gain +$41,675
budget: banked $1,936 debit $1,632 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$304 cash · rolled 44 ct earn ≈ $5,049/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$8,297/mo
vs 50% target ($8,143/mo)+2%
vs normal income ($16,286/mo)51% covered
Net income (after hedge)$7,085/mo
Downside budget
✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.79: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($0)0.0%
… as % of ML ($30,601)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (44 ct)$5,346
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $24.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $23.76Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$24-24.46
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $24.46
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$24.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,936$22,418+$16,243+$0
+2.5%$24.60 (1.0σ)$-704$23,222+$17,047+$0
+5%$25.20 (1.2σ)$-3,344$24,026+$17,851+$0
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (44 × $24): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (6 × $23.50): +$564
Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,739 (+$564 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,136, the opportunity cost of earning $8,297/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal45 × $22.5017 Jul7d3.3%63%78%$3,870$16,586+$8,289$0
Sell 45 × $22.50 3.3% OTM over spot $21.79 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.90 mid)
= $3,870 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,586/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $23.40)
74%
EV / mo
+$4,496
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
62%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$438
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$27 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.35/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.27–$1.80)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,855 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (45 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$2224 Jul 202610d left+$0.52/sh+$2,345
cycle +$6,215
[+$1,579…+$2,069] · 100% credit
69%
surv 53%
+$17,393 SAFE
cap gain +$11,218
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$2431 Jul 202618d left+$0.32/sh+$1,434
cycle +$5,304
[+$35…+$871] · 76% credit
75%
surv 67%
+$26,997 SAFE
cap gain +$20,822
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$2424 Jul 202610d left+$0.01/sh+$44
cycle +$3,914
[-$1,210…-$464] · 11% credit
75%
surv 66%
+$22,688 SAFE
cap gain +$16,513
Max even-money escape in the band~$2531 Jul 202618d left+$0.00/sh+$16
cycle +$3,886
[-$1,705…-$667] · 10% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$31,419 SAFE
cap gain +$25,244
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$2724 Jul 202610d left-$0.72/sh-$3,256
cycle +$614
[-$5,925…-$4,233]
91%
surv 90%
+$39,828 SAFE
cap gain +$33,653
budget: banked $3,870 debit $3,256 (84% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$614 cash · rolled 45 ct earn ≈ $3,157/mo while parked; 5 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$16,586/mo
vs 50% target ($8,143/mo)+104%
vs normal income ($16,286/mo)102% covered
Net income (after hedge)$15,172/mo
Downside budget
✓ $22.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.79: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($0)0.0%
… as % of ML ($30,601)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (45 ct)$5,378
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $23.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $22.27Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$22-23.40
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $23.40
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 1.27 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$22.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,870$15,048+$8,873-$360
+2.5%$23.06 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,339$16,083+$9,908-$2,891
+5%$23.62 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,192$17,056+$10,881-$4,860
SS (= V-bounce)$23.65 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,305$17,089+$10,914-$4,860
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.79, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $6,175
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0
− CC assignment net of premium (45 × $22.50): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (5 × $23.50): +$470
Total Position P&L @ SS: $6,645 (+$470 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $10,875 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,230, the opportunity cost of earning $16,586/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RIOT are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.268 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $10,875

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$247d17 Jul 2026$0.4444/50$8,297$7,08579%83%+$3,478-$00.0%$8,675 (vs do-nothing $-2,200)
$23.507d17 Jul 2026$0.5535/50$8,250$8,85175%80%+$3,030-$00.0%$9,510 (vs do-nothing $-1,365)
$2414d24 Jul 2026$0.8048/50$8,229$6,21174%80%+$2,535-$00.0%$10,203 (vs do-nothing $-672)
$2421d31 Jul 2026$1.2048/50$8,229$6,21170%78%+$2,133-$00.0%$12,123 (vs do-nothing +$1,248)
$23.5014d24 Jul 2026$0.9441/50$8,259$7,65170%77%+$2,283-$00.0%$10,875 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$237d17 Jul 2026$0.6928/50$8,280$10,29169%77%+$2,641-$00.0%$10,175 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$23.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.3642/50$8,160$7,35167%76%+$1,927-$00.0%$12,639 (vs do-nothing +$1,764)
$2314d24 Jul 2026$1.1135/50$8,325$8,92665%75%+$2,093-$00.0%$11,470 (vs do-nothing +$595)
$2321d31 Jul 2026$1.5438/50$8,360$8,35764%74%+$1,795-$00.0%$13,155 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)
$22.507d17 Jul 2026$0.8623/50$8,477$11,49563%74%+$2,298-$00.0%$10,691 (vs do-nothing $-184)
$22.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.3030/50$8,357$9,96561%73%+$1,874-$00.0%$11,955 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$22.5021d31 Jul 2026$1.7433/50$8,203$9,20760%72%+$1,596-$00.0%$13,515 (vs do-nothing +$2,640)
$2221d31 Jul 2026$1.9430/50$8,314$9,92256%71%+$1,386-$00.0%$13,875 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)
Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$2214d24 Jul 2026$1.5225/50$8,143$10,75856%70%+$1,633-$00.0%$12,325 (vs do-nothing +$1,450)
$227d17 Jul 2026$1.0718/50$8,254$12,27956%70%+$1,897-$00.0%$11,109 (vs do-nothing +$234)
$21.5021d31 Jul 2026$2.1827/50$8,409$10,62152%69%+$1,252-$00.0%$13,454 (vs do-nothing +$2,579)
$21.5014d24 Jul 2026$1.7622/50$8,297$11,51751%69%+$1,447-$00.0%$12,052 (vs do-nothing +$1,177)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.0  |  2026-07-10 03:38