50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.51 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,607/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,579/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $3,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 45 × $23.50 | 78% | $8,486 | $1,732 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 43 × $25.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 18.5% | 91% | 18% | $602 | $2,580 | -$5,906 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $25.50 18.5% OTM over spot $21.51 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $602 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $25.70) 92% EV / mo +$1,184 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,430 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.65/sh now → $1.17 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.51: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $25.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $25.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$525 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,325 (+$525 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,225, the opportunity cost of earning $2,580/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 38 × $24 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.6% | 82% | 37% | $1,292 | $5,537 | -$2,949 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $24 11.6% OTM over spot $21.51 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid) = $1,292 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,537/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $24.38) 85% EV / mo +$2,243 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,747 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $27 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 761 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24 is at/above CC-SS $21.51: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $24.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $24): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $23.50): +$900 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,700 (+$900 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,850, the opportunity cost of earning $5,537/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 45 × $23.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.3% | 78% | 34% | $1,980 | $8,486 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $23.50 9.3% OTM over spot $21.51 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid) = $1,980 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $23.99) 82% EV / mo +$3,077 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,646 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $27 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.12–$1.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,022 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.51: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $23.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $23.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $23.50): +$375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,175 (+$375 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,375, the opportunity cost of earning $8,486/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 43 × $22 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 60% | 85% | $3,956 | $16,954 | +$8,469 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $22 2.3% OTM over spot $21.51 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.97 mid) = $3,956 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,954/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $22.96) 72% EV / mo +$4,178 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$30 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.31/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $1.25–$1.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,010 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22 is at/above CC-SS $21.51: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $22.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.51, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $22): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$525 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,325 (+$525 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,225, the opportunity cost of earning $16,954/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.262 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $7,550
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 45/50 | $8,486 | $6,710 | 78% | 82% | +$3,077 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,155 (vs do-nothing $-1,395) |
| $23 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 34/50 | $8,306 | $8,298 | 72% | 79% | +$2,696 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,938 (vs do-nothing $-612) |
| $23.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 48/50 | $8,366 | $6,108 | 69% | 77% | +$1,861 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,806 (vs do-nothing +$2,256) |
| $23 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 40/50 | $8,314 | $7,342 | 68% | 76% | +$2,068 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,430 (vs do-nothing +$880) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 26/50 | $8,357 | $9,635 | 66% | 76% | +$2,553 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,550 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 44/50 | $8,360 | $6,745 | 66% | 76% | +$2,044 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,102 (vs do-nothing +$2,552) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 34/50 | $8,379 | $8,371 | 63% | 74% | +$1,885 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,910 (vs do-nothing +$1,360) |
| $22.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 38/50 | $8,523 | $7,872 | 62% | 74% | +$2,127 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,666 (vs do-nothing +$3,116) |
| $22 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 22/50 | $8,674 | $10,595 | 60% | 72% | +$2,138 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,924 (vs do-nothing +$374) |
| $22 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.38 | 29/50 | $8,576 | $9,371 | 59% | 71% | +$1,851 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,377 (vs do-nothing +$1,827) |
| $22 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 33/50 | $8,391 | $8,544 | 58% | 72% | +$1,914 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,949 (vs do-nothing +$3,399) |
| $21.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.98 | 30/50 | $8,486 | $9,121 | 55% | 69% | +$1,111 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,210 (vs do-nothing +$3,660) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.56 | 25/50 | $8,357 | $9,796 | 53% | 69% | +$1,373 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,550 (vs do-nothing +$2,000) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.