50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.07 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,893/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,579/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $3,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 40 × $23.50 | 76% | $7,543 | $1,448 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 43 × $25.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.7% | 90% | 20% | $602 | $2,580 | -$4,963 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $25.50 17.7% OTM over spot $21.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $602 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $25.70) 91% EV / mo +$954 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,006 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.07: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $25.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $26)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $25.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$525 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,325 (+$525 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,225, the opportunity cost of earning $2,580/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 46 × $24.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 13.1% | 85% | 32% | $1,150 | $4,929 | -$2,614 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $24.50 13.1% OTM over spot $21.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $1,150 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $24.79) 87% EV / mo +$1,636 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,476 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $28 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.42/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 643 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.07: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $24.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $24.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $23.50): +$300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,100 (+$300 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,450, the opportunity cost of earning $4,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $23.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.4% | 76% | 38% | $1,760 | $7,543 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $23.50 8.4% OTM over spot $21.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid) = $1,760 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $23.99) 81% EV / mo +$2,099 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,006 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $28 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.33/sh now → $0.94 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,133 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.07: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $23.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $23.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $23.50): +$750 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,550 (+$750 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,000, the opportunity cost of earning $7,543/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $22.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.8% | 64% | 75% | $3,525 | $15,107 | +$7,564 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $22.50 3.8% OTM over spot $21.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.79 mid) = $3,525 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,107/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $23.30) 74% EV / mo +$3,427 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$608 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $27 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.24/sh now → $0.88 mid-life (likely $1.11–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,764 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22.50 is at/above CC-SS $21.07: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $23.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.26 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $21.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $3,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $22.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $23.50): +$225 Total Position P&L @ SS: $4,025 (+$225 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $7,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,525, the opportunity cost of earning $15,107/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.262 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $7,550
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 40/50 | $7,543 | $6,571 | 76% | 81% | +$2,099 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,310 (vs do-nothing $-1,240) |
| $24 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 49/50 | $7,560 | $5,141 | 71% | 78% | +$1,533 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,167 (vs do-nothing +$1,617) |
| $23.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 47/50 | $7,554 | $5,456 | 71% | 78% | +$1,083 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,550 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 31/50 | $7,573 | $8,047 | 70% | 77% | +$1,830 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,992 (vs do-nothing $-558) |
| $23.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 43/50 | $7,494 | $6,040 | 68% | 76% | +$1,303 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,571 (vs do-nothing +$2,021) |
| $23 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 36/50 | $7,483 | $7,153 | 66% | 75% | +$1,409 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,342 (vs do-nothing +$792) |
| $23 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 40/50 | $7,600 | $6,628 | 65% | 74% | +$886 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,870 (vs do-nothing +$2,320) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 24/50 | $7,714 | $9,313 | 64% | 74% | +$1,750 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,550 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 31/50 | $7,639 | $8,113 | 62% | 72% | +$1,270 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,790 (vs do-nothing +$1,240) |
| $22.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 34/50 | $7,626 | $7,618 | 61% | 72% | +$1,004 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,338 (vs do-nothing +$2,788) |
| $22 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 19/50 | $7,491 | $9,894 | 57% | 70% | +$1,259 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,873 (vs do-nothing +$323) |
| $22 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 30/50 | $7,629 | $8,263 | 57% | 70% | +$881 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,640 (vs do-nothing +$3,090) |
| $22 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.38 | 26/50 | $7,689 | $8,966 | 57% | 70% | +$1,231 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,188 (vs do-nothing +$1,638) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.98 | 27/50 | $7,637 | $8,754 | 53% | 68% | +$661 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,871 (vs do-nothing +$3,321) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.56 | 23/50 | $7,689 | $9,448 | 52% | 68% | +$836 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,413 (vs do-nothing +$1,863) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.