50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.47 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,536/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,540/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $2,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 49 × $23 | 79% | $7,770 | $1,884 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 43 × $25 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.7% | 92% | 17% | $602 | $2,580 | -$5,190 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $25 19.7% OTM over spot $20.89 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.16 mid) = $602 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $25.16) 92% EV / mo +$1,297 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,984 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.51/sh now → $1.07 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 279 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $20.47: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $25.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $25): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (7 × $23.50): +$434 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,084 (+$434 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,666, the opportunity cost of earning $2,580/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 45 × $23.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.5% | 83% | 34% | $1,215 | $5,207 | -$2,563 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $23.50 12.5% OTM over spot $20.89 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid) = $1,215 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,207/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $23.82) 86% EV / mo +$1,769 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,134 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $27 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.37/sh now → $0.97 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 703 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23.50 is at/above CC-SS $20.47: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $23.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $23.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $23.50): +$310 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,960 (+$310 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,790, the opportunity cost of earning $5,207/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 49 × $23 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.1% | 79% | 30% | $1,813 | $7,770 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $23 10.1% OTM over spot $20.89 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.42 mid) = $1,813 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,770/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $23.42) 83% EV / mo +$2,595 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,765 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $27 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.98–$1.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 900 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23 is at/above CC-SS $20.47: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $23.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $23)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $23): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $23.50): +$62 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,712 (+$62 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,038, the opportunity cost of earning $7,770/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $21 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.5% | 54% | 96% | $3,686 | $15,797 | +$8,027 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $21 0.5% OTM over spot $20.89 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid) = $3,686 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,797/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $22.02) 69% EV / mo +$2,229 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$607 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $26 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,240 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $22 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $21 is at/above CC-SS $20.47: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.97 collected) or spot ≥ $22.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $21): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $23.50): +$744 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,394 (+$744 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,750 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,356, the opportunity cost of earning $15,797/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.251 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,750
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $23 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 49/50 | $7,770 | $5,363 | 79% | 83% | +$2,595 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,525 (vs do-nothing $-1,225) |
| $22.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 39/50 | $7,856 | $6,777 | 74% | 80% | +$2,182 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,165 (vs do-nothing $-585) |
| $23 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 50/50 | $7,821 | $5,282 | 73% | 80% | +$2,033 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,300 (vs do-nothing +$550) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 44/50 | $7,920 | $6,177 | 69% | 77% | +$1,628 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,718 (vs do-nothing +$968) |
| $22 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 30/50 | $7,843 | $7,960 | 68% | 76% | +$1,878 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,720 (vs do-nothing $-30) |
| $22 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 37/50 | $7,929 | $7,116 | 65% | 74% | +$1,424 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,156 (vs do-nothing +$1,406) |
| $22 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 39/50 | $7,800 | $6,722 | 63% | 75% | +$1,159 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,792 (vs do-nothing +$3,042) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 31/50 | $7,772 | $7,757 | 60% | 72% | +$1,113 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,455 (vs do-nothing +$1,705) |
| $21.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 38/50 | $7,926 | $6,980 | 59% | 73% | +$372 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,942 (vs do-nothing +$3,192) |
| $21 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 32/50 | $7,954 | $7,806 | 56% | 71% | +$573 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,334 (vs do-nothing +$3,584) |
| $21 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 26/50 | $8,079 | $8,727 | 55% | 69% | +$1,302 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,908 (vs do-nothing +$2,158) |
| $21 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 19/50 | $7,899 | $9,477 | 54% | 69% | +$1,115 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,415 (vs do-nothing +$665) |
| $20.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 29/50 | $8,037 | $8,287 | 52% | 70% | +$323 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,578 (vs do-nothing +$3,828) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 23/50 | $7,886 | $8,933 | 49% | 67% | +$672 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,004 (vs do-nothing +$2,254) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.