50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.42 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,357/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,500/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $2,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 40 × $22.50 | 75% | $7,200 | $1,757 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 49 × $25 | 17 Jul | 7d | 19.8% | 92% | 16% | $588 | $2,520 | -$4,680 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $25 19.8% OTM over spot $20.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $588 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $25) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $25.14) 93% EV / mo +$1,266 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,222 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $29 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.39/sh now → $0.98 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 243 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $26 (overshoots $0.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $25 is at/above CC-SS $20.42: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $25.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $25)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $25): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $23.50): +$56 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,806 (+$56 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,744, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $24.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 17.4% | 90% | 20% | $750 | $3,214 | -$3,986 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $24.50 17.4% OTM over spot $20.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $750 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,214/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $24.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $24.67) 91% EV / mo +$1,473 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,000 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $28 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $25 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $24.50 is at/above CC-SS $20.42: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $24.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $24.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $2,750 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,800, the opportunity cost of earning $3,214/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 45 × $23.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 12.7% | 84% | 32% | $1,125 | $4,821 | -$2,379 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $23.50 12.7% OTM over spot $20.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,821/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $23.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $23.77) 87% EV / mo +$1,826 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,872 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $28 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.26/sh now → $0.89 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 658 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $24 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $23.50 is at/above CC-SS $20.42: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $23.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $24)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $23.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (5 × $23.50): +$280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,030 (+$280 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,520, the opportunity cost of earning $4,821/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $22.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.9% | 75% | 38% | $1,680 | $7,200 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $22.50 7.9% OTM over spot $20.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $1,680 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $22.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $22.95) 80% EV / mo +$2,023 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,633 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $27 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,150 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $23 (overshoots $0.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $22.50 is at/above CC-SS $20.42: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $22.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $22)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $22.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $23.50): +$560 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,310 (+$560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,240, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $21 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.7% | 55% | 95% | $3,382 | $14,494 | +$7,294 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $21 0.7% OTM over spot $20.86 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.93 mid) = $3,382 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,494/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $21) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $21.93) 68% EV / mo +$1,852 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$562 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $25 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,219 simulated challenges: the $21 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $22 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $21 is at/above CC-SS $20.42: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $21.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $21)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $31.43 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.25 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $20.42, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $2,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $21): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (12 × $23.50): +$672 Total Position P&L @ SS: $3,422 (+$672 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,550 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,128, the opportunity cost of earning $14,494/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.251 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,550
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 40/50 | $7,200 | $5,900 | 75% | 80% | +$2,023 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,990 (vs do-nothing $-560) |
| $22.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 43/50 | $7,279 | $5,619 | 70% | 77% | +$1,596 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,539 (vs do-nothing +$989) |
| $22 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 30/50 | $7,200 | $7,100 | 69% | 76% | +$1,816 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,550 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $22.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.08 | 47/50 | $7,251 | $5,111 | 67% | 77% | +$755 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,994 (vs do-nothing +$2,444) |
| $22 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.93 | 37/50 | $7,374 | $6,434 | 65% | 74% | +$1,300 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,919 (vs do-nothing +$1,369) |
| $22 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 37/50 | $7,241 | $6,301 | 64% | 74% | +$1,238 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,547 (vs do-nothing +$2,997) |
| $21.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 30/50 | $7,264 | $7,164 | 60% | 72% | +$1,189 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,260 (vs do-nothing +$1,710) |
| $21.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 35/50 | $7,300 | $6,600 | 60% | 74% | +$666 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,700 (vs do-nothing +$3,150) |
| $21 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 30/50 | $7,329 | $7,229 | 56% | 72% | +$720 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,000 (vs do-nothing +$3,450) |
| $21 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 25/50 | $7,179 | $7,679 | 55% | 69% | +$981 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,950) |
| $21 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 19/50 | $7,247 | $8,467 | 55% | 68% | +$926 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,177 (vs do-nothing +$627) |
| $20.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.92 | 27/50 | $7,406 | $7,666 | 52% | 71% | +$529 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,222 (vs do-nothing +$3,672) |
| $20.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 22/50 | $7,307 | $8,167 | 49% | 67% | +$692 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,728 (vs do-nothing +$2,178) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.