RIOT @ $19.87 UNDERWATER $3.78 (16.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 17 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.12 (banked floor $21.04) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,382/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,797/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,191/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$14,382/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.12 (probe: $21C 17d) still earns $10,588/mo (74% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
Hole (after banked)
$6,625
was $7,125 · 7% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$21.12 → $21.04
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.15 | $762 | 2026-07-11 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 47 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 31 · %B 11 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.85 (+55%) · daily UBB $31.61 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.12 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21.50 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)
69%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.10/sh now → $1.49 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $22 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.73 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 450 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $23 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.64/sh | +$3,177 cycle +$4,077 [+$2,610…+$3,607] · 98% credit | 69% surv 53% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.16/sh | +$788 cycle +$1,688 [-$581…+$1,111] · 61% credit | 79% surv 74% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.13/sh | +$672 cycle +$1,572 [-$496…+$940] · 61% credit | 74% surv 66% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.04/sh | +$192 cycle +$1,092 [-$1,326…+$464] · 40% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$0.15/sh | -$748 cycle +$152 [-$2,523…-$527] · 9% credit | 85% surv 82% |
| budget: banked $900 debit $748 (83% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$152 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $5,474/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $24 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $24)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.81/sh now → $1.28 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 452 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $25 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.63/sh | +$3,127 cycle +$3,927 [+$2,891…+$4,143] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.12/sh | +$589 cycle +$1,389 [+$5…+$1,326] · 75% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.12/sh | +$589 cycle +$1,389 [+$5…+$1,326] · 75% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.08/sh | -$415 cycle +$385 [-$1,198…+$243] · 33% credit | 75% surv 67% |
| budget: banked $800 debit $415 (52% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$385 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $14,951/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.234 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,694 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,619
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 40/50 | $7,200 | $7,830 | 88% | 90% | +$4,571 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,499 (vs do-nothing $-120) |
| $22 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 48/50 | $7,200 | $7,326 | 77% | 82% | +$2,459 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,011 (vs do-nothing +$1,392) |
| $21 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 19/50 | $7,220 | $9,173 | 75% | 81% | +$3,379 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,719 (vs do-nothing +$101) |
| $21.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 39/50 | $7,254 | $7,947 | 72% | 79% | +$2,124 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,218 (vs do-nothing +$1,599) |
| $22 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 48/50 | $7,285 | $7,411 | 72% | 79% | +$1,820 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,739 (vs do-nothing +$3,120) |
| $21.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 41/50 | $7,308 | $7,875 | 69% | 76% | +$1,632 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,899 (vs do-nothing +$3,280) |
| $21 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 31/50 | $7,254 | $8,451 | 66% | 75% | +$1,348 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,023 (vs do-nothing +$1,405) |
| $21 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 34/50 | $7,200 | $8,208 | 64% | 74% | +$1,516 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,587 (vs do-nothing +$2,968) |
| $20.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 25/50 | $7,350 | $8,925 | 61% | 73% | +$1,673 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,001 (vs do-nothing +$383) |
| $20.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 29/50 | $7,216 | $8,539 | 60% | 72% | +$1,404 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,309 (vs do-nothing +$1,691) |
| $20 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 25/50 | $7,191 | $8,766 | 55% | 70% | +$1,230 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,376 (vs do-nothing +$758) |
| $20 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 20/50 | $7,200 | $9,090 | 55% | 70% | +$1,359 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,365 (vs do-nothing $-254) |
| $20 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 10/50 | $7,400 | $9,920 | 55% | 71% | +$2,093 | -$377 | 0.0% | $1,032 (vs do-nothing $-587) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $19.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 22/50 | $7,299 | $9,063 | 51% | 68% | +$1,106 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,735 (vs do-nothing +$117) |
| $19.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 17/50 | $7,446 | $9,525 | 49% | 66% | +$997 | -$267 | 0.0% | $995 (vs do-nothing $-624) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.