RIOT @ $20.99 UNDERWATER $2.66 (11.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 17 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.70 (banked floor $20.62) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,176/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,635/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $2,375 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,088/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$12,176/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.5 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.70 (probe: $21C 17d) still earns $12,176/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$20.70 → $20.62
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.15 | $762 | 2026-07-11 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 21 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.93 (+47%) · daily UBB $31.27 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.70 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $22.50 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)
70%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.30/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $1.11–$1.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,529 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $23 (overshoots $0.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.37/sh | +$1,867 cycle +$4,067 [+$1,244…+$1,808] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.17/sh | +$869 cycle +$3,069 [+$92…+$693] · 81% credit | 68% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.17/sh | +$869 cycle +$3,069 [+$92…+$693] · 81% credit | 68% surv 59% |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.38/sh | -$1,923 cycle +$277 [-$3,581…-$2,427] · 0% credit | 76% surv 72% |
| budget: banked $2,200 debit $1,923 (87% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$277 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,653/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $23)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 563 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $24 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$23 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.63/sh | +$3,152 cycle +$3,752 [+$2,970…+$3,479] · 100% credit | 66% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.19/sh | +$946 cycle +$1,546 [+$322…+$1,128] · 87% credit | 71% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.19/sh | +$955 cycle +$1,555 [+$26…+$1,121] · 76% credit | 74% surv 69% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | -$0.00/sh | -$12 cycle +$588 [-$1,210…+$73] · 28% credit | 78% surv 76% |
| budget: banked $600 debit $12 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$588 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $4,722/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $25.50 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $25.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.58/sh now → $1.12 mid-life (likely $0.88–$1.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.45/sh | +$2,260 cycle +$2,660 [+$2,007…+$3,207] · 100% credit | 66% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$297 cycle +$697 [-$266…+$1,147] · 64% credit | 70% surv 62% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$297 cycle +$697 [-$266…+$1,147] · 64% credit | 70% surv 62% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.271 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,025
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 36/50 | $6,120 | $7,506 | 78% | 82% | $-609 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,449 (vs do-nothing $-576) |
| $22 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 24/50 | $6,240 | $8,814 | 71% | 75% | $-793 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,857 (vs do-nothing $-168) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 47/50 | $6,204 | $6,501 | 70% | 76% | $-1,405 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,542 (vs do-nothing +$517) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 42/50 | $6,226 | $7,018 | 67% | 76% | $-188 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,167 (vs do-nothing +$2,142) |
| $22 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 32/50 | $6,144 | $7,926 | 65% | 73% | $-492 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,017 (vs do-nothing +$992) |
| $22 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 35/50 | $6,176 | $7,661 | 63% | 73% | $-227 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,370 (vs do-nothing +$2,345) |
| $21.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 26/50 | $6,162 | $8,538 | 59% | 69% | $-669 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,221 (vs do-nothing +$1,196) |
| $21.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 30/50 | $6,247 | $8,227 | 59% | 71% | $-287 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,575 (vs do-nothing +$2,550) |
| $21 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.38 | 26/50 | $6,332 | $8,708 | 54% | 68% | $-363 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,755 (vs do-nothing +$2,730) |
| $21 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.07 | 19/50 | $6,099 | $9,168 | 53% | 66% | $-147 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,431 (vs do-nothing +$1,406) |
| $21 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 12/50 | $6,480 | $10,242 | 52% | 64% | $-1,383 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,277 (vs do-nothing +$252) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.