RIOT @ $19.95 UNDERWATER $3.70 (15.6% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.72 (banked floor $20.64) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,731/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,875/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$15,750/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.72 (probe: $20.5C 16d) still earns $13,594/mo (86% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
Hole (after banked)
$3,625
was $4,125 · 12% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$20.72 → $20.64
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.15 | $762 | 2026-07-11 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B 16 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.86 (+55%) · daily UBB $31.45 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.72 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
64%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.03/sh now → $1.43 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)
68%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.10/sh now → $1.49 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $22 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.94/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 346 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.68/sh | +$3,377 cycle +$4,127 [+$2,688…+$3,615] · 98% credit | 68% surv 53% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.24/sh | +$1,192 cycle +$1,942 [-$398…+$1,150] · 68% credit | 81% surv 76% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.09/sh | +$433 cycle +$1,183 [-$1,016…+$361] · 47% credit | 78% surv 71% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.03/sh | +$136 cycle +$886 [-$1,747…+$23] · 27% credit | 84% surv 81% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | -$0.08/sh | -$393 cycle +$357 [-$2,441…-$542] · 9% credit | 86% surv 84% |
| budget: banked $750 debit $393 (52% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$357 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $5,848/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.236 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,737 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,712
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.15 | 35/50 | $7,875 | $9,619 | 90% | 92% | +$5,524 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,067 (vs do-nothing $-1,645) |
| $22 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 46/50 | $7,973 | $8,438 | 76% | 81% | +$2,628 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,252 (vs do-nothing $-460) |
| $21 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 15/50 | $8,100 | $12,169 | 76% | 82% | +$4,278 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,322 (vs do-nothing $-390) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 50/50 | $7,875 | $7,875 | 75% | 81% | +$2,626 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,812 (vs do-nothing +$1,100) |
| $21.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 37/50 | $7,893 | $9,405 | 72% | 79% | +$2,654 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,786 (vs do-nothing +$74) |
| $22 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 44/50 | $8,002 | $8,700 | 72% | 79% | +$2,414 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,252 (vs do-nothing +$1,540) |
| $21.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 38/50 | $7,980 | $9,375 | 68% | 76% | +$2,167 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,612 (vs do-nothing +$1,900) |
| $21 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 30/50 | $8,100 | $10,425 | 67% | 76% | +$2,436 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,282 (vs do-nothing +$570) |
| $21 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 33/50 | $7,982 | $9,958 | 64% | 74% | +$1,934 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,923 (vs do-nothing +$2,211) |
| $20.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 24/50 | $8,000 | $11,023 | 60% | 73% | +$2,048 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,105 (vs do-nothing +$392) |
| $20.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.45 | 29/50 | $7,884 | $10,326 | 59% | 72% | +$1,557 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,491 (vs do-nothing +$1,779) |
| $20 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 25/50 | $7,875 | $10,781 | 55% | 70% | +$1,423 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,571 (vs do-nothing +$859) |
| $20 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 20/50 | $8,133 | $11,621 | 54% | 69% | +$1,727 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,479 (vs do-nothing $-233) |
Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $20 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 8/50 | $8,760 | $13,642 | 53% | 71% | +$2,702 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,227 (vs do-nothing $-485) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.