RIOT @ $20.34 UNDERWATER $3.31 (14.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 16 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.18 (banked floor $21.10) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,688/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,731/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,700 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,844/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$13,688/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.18 (probe: $21C 16d) still earns $13,312/mo (97% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
Hole (after banked)
$4,200
was $4,700 · 11% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$21.18 → $21.10
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.15 | $762 | 2026-07-11 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 34 · %B 21 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.87 (+52%) · daily UBB $31.18 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.18 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)
64%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $22 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 561 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.52/sh | +$2,587 cycle +$3,337 [+$1,703…+$2,689] · 95% credit | 66% surv 53% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.36/sh | +$1,808 cycle +$2,558 [+$328…+$1,776] · 79% credit | 77% surv 71% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.18/sh | +$921 cycle +$1,671 [-$470…+$890] · 64% credit | 70% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.02/sh | +$98 cycle +$848 [-$1,873…-$0] · 25% credit | 83% surv 80% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $24.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $24.50)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.07–$1.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 371 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $25 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.44/sh | +$2,186 cycle +$2,486 [+$1,629…+$3,284] · 99% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,734 cycle +$2,034 [+$1,201…+$2,678] · 98% credit | 71% surv 59% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$287 cycle +$587 [-$505…+$1,194] · 58% credit | 72% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$287 cycle +$587 [-$505…+$1,194] · 58% credit | 72% surv 63% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.253 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,315 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,765
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.15 | 31/50 | $6,975 | $8,507 | 84% | 86% | +$2,229 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,897 (vs do-nothing $-868) |
| $22 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 42/50 | $7,000 | $7,645 | 73% | 79% | +$1,323 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,059 (vs do-nothing +$294) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 43/50 | $6,853 | $7,418 | 72% | 78% | +$1,439 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,571 (vs do-nothing +$1,806) |
| $22 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.81 | 46/50 | $6,986 | $7,309 | 69% | 76% | +$32 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,513 (vs do-nothing +$1,748) |
| $21.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 37/50 | $6,907 | $7,955 | 68% | 76% | +$245 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,246 (vs do-nothing +$481) |
| $21 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 12/50 | $7,200 | $10,264 | 67% | 76% | +$1,847 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,509 (vs do-nothing $-256) |
| $21.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 32/50 | $6,900 | $8,351 | 64% | 75% | +$1,116 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,069 (vs do-nothing +$2,304) |
| $21 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 28/50 | $6,907 | $8,680 | 62% | 73% | +$281 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,120 (vs do-nothing +$354) |
| $21 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.42 | 26/50 | $6,922 | $8,857 | 60% | 73% | +$1,331 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,862 (vs do-nothing +$2,097) |
| $20.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 25/50 | $6,844 | $8,859 | 56% | 70% | +$482 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,632 (vs do-nothing +$866) |
| $20.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 21/50 | $6,930 | $9,268 | 55% | 69% | +$497 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,506 (vs do-nothing $-259) |
| $20 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.67 | 22/50 | $6,889 | $9,146 | 51% | 68% | +$305 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,890 (vs do-nothing +$125) |
| $20 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 17/50 | $6,913 | $9,574 | 48% | 67% | +$284 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,096 (vs do-nothing $-669) |
Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $20 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 6/50 | $7,560 | $11,108 | 43% | 65% | +$990 | -$206 | 0.0% | $2,301 (vs do-nothing $-464) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.