RIOT @ $20.14 UNDERWATER $3.51 (14.8% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.44 (banked floor $21.36) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,828/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,500/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$15,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.44 (probe: $21.5C 15d) still earns $10,400/mo (69% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
Hole (after banked)
$7,000
was $7,500 · 7% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$21.44 → $21.36
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.15 | $762 | 2026-07-11 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 33 · %B 20 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.86 (+53%) · daily UBB $31.21 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.44 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $22 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
71%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.97/sh now → $1.39 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $22.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 886 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $23 (overshoots $0.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.59/sh | +$2,944 cycle +$4,644 [+$2,432…+$3,403] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$23 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.23/sh | +$1,136 cycle +$2,836 [+$373…+$1,372] · 88% credit | 72% surv 62% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$224 cycle +$1,924 [-$743…+$383] · 38% credit | 75% surv 66% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$224 cycle +$1,924 [-$743…+$383] · 38% credit | 75% surv 66% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.28/sh | -$1,403 cycle +$297 [-$2,786…-$1,415] · 4% credit | 79% surv 74% |
| budget: banked $1,700 debit $1,403 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$297 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $9,990/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $24 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $24)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.59/sh now → $1.12 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 368 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $25 (overshoots $0.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.65/sh | +$3,241 cycle +$3,841 [+$3,031…+$4,117] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$491 cycle +$1,091 [-$78…+$1,162] · 73% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$491 cycle +$1,091 [-$78…+$1,162] · 73% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | -$0.06/sh | -$295 cycle +$305 [-$971…+$359] · 35% credit | 76% surv 69% |
| budget: banked $600 debit $295 (49% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $14,502/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.242 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,059 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,159
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 46/50 | $7,590 | $8,006 | 77% | 81% | +$2,332 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,791 (vs do-nothing $-368) |
| $21.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 37/50 | $7,631 | $8,983 | 71% | 78% | +$1,838 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,270 (vs do-nothing +$111) |
| $22 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 43/50 | $7,654 | $8,382 | 71% | 78% | +$1,980 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,750 (vs do-nothing +$1,591) |
| $21.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.04 | 37/50 | $7,696 | $9,048 | 67% | 75% | +$1,739 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,083 (vs do-nothing +$1,924) |
| $21 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 27/50 | $7,695 | $10,087 | 65% | 75% | +$1,976 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,625 (vs do-nothing $-534) |
| $21 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 31/50 | $7,564 | $9,540 | 62% | 73% | +$1,513 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,972 (vs do-nothing +$813) |
| $20.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 21/50 | $7,560 | $10,576 | 58% | 71% | +$1,638 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,114 (vs do-nothing $-1,045) |
| $20.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.42 | 27/50 | $7,668 | $10,060 | 57% | 71% | +$1,323 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,057 (vs do-nothing $-102) |
| $20 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 23/50 | $7,544 | $10,352 | 52% | 69% | +$1,085 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,428 (vs do-nothing $-731) |
| $20 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 17/50 | $7,522 | $10,954 | 51% | 68% | +$1,256 | -$438 | 0.0% | $1,837 (vs do-nothing $-1,322) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.