RIOTBBC @ $19.89 UNDERWATER $3.76 (15.9% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.00 (banked floor $20.92) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,400/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,828/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,200/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$16,400/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.00 (probe: $20.5C 15d) still earns $12,000/mo (73% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
Hole (after banked)
$5,700
was $6,200 · 8% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$21.00 → $20.92
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.15 | $762 | 2026-07-11 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 47 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B 18 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.87 (+55%) · daily UBB $31.22 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.00 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $22 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
71%
Roll menu unavailable (chain too sparse to anchor the buyback); the live roll table owns the decision if this call is challenged.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $22.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.14 mid-life (likely $1.15–$1.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 847 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $23 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.61/sh | +$3,032 cycle +$4,632 [+$2,502…+$3,674] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.37/sh | +$1,866 cycle +$3,466 [+$885…+$2,307] · 94% credit | 75% surv 66% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$514 cycle +$2,114 [-$567…+$858] · 52% credit | 70% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$313 cycle +$1,913 [-$913…+$691] · 41% credit | 79% surv 73% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.13/sh | -$667 cycle +$933 [-$2,172…-$319] · 19% credit | 81% surv 75% |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $667 (42% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$933 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $8,427/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $23.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.10–$1.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 498 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $24 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.65/sh | +$3,243 cycle +$3,693 [+$2,931…+$4,215] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.13/sh | +$632 cycle +$1,082 [-$149…+$1,438] · 69% credit | 70% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$639 cycle +$1,089 [-$217…+$1,526] · 68% credit | 79% surv 72% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.08/sh | -$402 cycle +$48 [-$1,493…+$411] · 33% credit | 80% surv 74% |
| budget: banked $450 debit $402 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $9,534/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.246 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,902 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,213
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 49/50 | $8,269 | $8,509 | 79% | 84% | +$3,748 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,977 (vs do-nothing $-1,236) |
| $21.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 43/50 | $8,385 | $10,065 | 74% | 81% | +$2,853 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,429 (vs do-nothing $-783) |
| $21 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 30/50 | $8,325 | $13,125 | 67% | 77% | +$2,280 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,326 (vs do-nothing +$113) |
| $21.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 45/50 | $8,223 | $9,423 | 67% | 77% | +$2,345 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,083 (vs do-nothing +$2,870) |
| $20.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 24/50 | $8,460 | $14,700 | 61% | 73% | +$2,084 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,589 (vs do-nothing $-624) |
| $20.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.20 | 35/50 | $8,400 | $12,000 | 60% | 73% | +$974 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,213 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $20 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 25/50 | $8,200 | $14,200 | 55% | 71% | +$1,825 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,063 (vs do-nothing $-150) |
| $20 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 19/50 | $8,408 | $15,848 | 54% | 70% | +$1,871 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,225 (vs do-nothing $-988) |
| $19.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 22/50 | $8,272 | $14,992 | 50% | 69% | +$1,589 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,509 (vs do-nothing $-704) |
| $19.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 17/50 | $8,670 | $16,590 | 47% | 67% | +$1,232 | -$234 | 0.0% | $2,785 (vs do-nothing $-1,428) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.