RIOTBBC @ $19.36 UNDERWATER $4.29 (18.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.07 (banked floor $21.00) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,869/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,250/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$12,500/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.07 (probe: $21C 15d) still earns $6,100/mo (49% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$500
Hole (after banked)
$9,500
was $10,000 · 5% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$21.07 → $21.00
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 50x $24.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.15 | $762 | 2026-07-11 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 45 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 30 · %B 15 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.87 (+59%) · daily UBB $31.27 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.07 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21.50 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)
72%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.70/sh now → $1.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $22 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
75%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.80/sh now → $1.98 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $23)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.16–$1.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 450 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $24 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$1,313 cycle +$2,113 [+$161…+$2,509] · 79% credit | 70% surv 59% |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$23 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$785 cycle +$1,585 [-$227…+$1,814] · 68% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$379 cycle +$1,179 [-$704…+$1,397] · 56% credit | 67% surv 55% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.15/sh | -$735 cycle +$65 [-$2,227…+$365] · 30% credit | 73% surv 66% |
| budget: banked $800 debit $735 (92% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$65 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $9,828/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.234 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$10,612 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,112
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $21 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 48/50 | $6,300 | $6,420 | 75% | 81% | +$441 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,992 (vs do-nothing $-120) |
| $20.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 35/50 | $6,431 | $7,331 | 69% | 77% | +$550 | -$297 | 0.0% | $765 (vs do-nothing $-1,347) |
| $21 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 50/50 | $6,341 | $6,341 | 68% | 77% | +$269 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,887 (vs do-nothing +$2,775) |
| $20.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 41/50 | $6,396 | $6,936 | 65% | 75% | $-400 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,723 (vs do-nothing $-389) |
| $20 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.69 | 25/50 | $6,469 | $7,969 | 62% | 74% | +$759 | -$962 | 0.0% | $400 (vs do-nothing $-1,712) |
| $20 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 32/50 | $6,336 | $7,416 | 60% | 73% | $-132 | -$272 | 0.0% | $880 (vs do-nothing $-1,232) |
| $20 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.31 | 35/50 | $6,252 | $7,152 | 60% | 73% | +$298 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,885 (vs do-nothing $-227) |
| $19.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 25/50 | $6,250 | $7,750 | 55% | 70% | +$139 | -$812 | 0.0% | $550 (vs do-nothing $-1,562) |
| $19.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.96 | 18/50 | $6,480 | $8,400 | 55% | 70% | +$618 | -$1,107 | 0.0% | $465 (vs do-nothing $-1,647) |
| $19 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 27/50 | $6,480 | $7,860 | 52% | 69% | +$193 | -$850 | 0.0% | $452 (vs do-nothing $-1,660) |
| $19 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 21/50 | $6,384 | $8,124 | 50% | 68% | +$228 | -$1,165 | 0.0% | $317 (vs do-nothing $-1,795) |
| $19 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 15/50 | $6,638 | $8,738 | 48% | 67% | +$364 | -$1,342 | 0.0% | $320 (vs do-nothing $-1,792) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.