FORTRESS FIGHT: RIOT @ $20.08

BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $23.03 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RIOTBBC @ $20.08 UNDERWATER $3.57 (15.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (10d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-31.

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $23.03 (banked floor $22.93) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)

SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)

HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$30,601	(ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000
Normal income ref	$12,794/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,992/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-17,500	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,397/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,794/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $30,601

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $23.03 (probe: $23C 17d) still earns $6,794/mo (53% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$650

Hole (after banked)

$16,850

was $17,500 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$23.03 → $22.93

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 47 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 30 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.71 (+53%) · daily UBB $29.93 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $23.03 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $24 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $24)

86%

Touch odds

29%

Per cycle

$1,500

Income / mo

$4,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.97/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.23–$2.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $25 (overshoots $0.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.20/sh	+$997 cycle +$2,497 [+$97…+$1,973] · 78% credit	66% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$26	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.16/sh	+$823 cycle +$2,323 [-$309…+$1,774] · 65% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$25	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.11/sh	+$544 cycle +$2,044 [-$206…+$1,332] · 64% credit	71% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$27	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.04/sh	-$196 cycle +$1,304 [-$1,450…+$662] · 38% credit	77% surv 71%
budget: banked $1,500 debit $196 (13% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,304 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $10,685/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $25 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $25)

91%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$950

Income / mo

$2,850

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$25	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,065 cycle +$2,015 [+$404…+$2,580] · 88% credit	66% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,062 cycle +$2,012 [+$249…+$2,650] · 84% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$26	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.14/sh	+$696 cycle +$1,646 [+$153…+$2,018] · 83% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.01/sh	+$49 cycle +$999 [-$871…+$1,473] · 52% credit	77% surv 71%

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $23.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)

95%

Touch odds

11%

Per cycle

$200

Income / mo

$2,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 182 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $24 (overshoots $0.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.86/sh	+$4,293 cycle +$4,493 [+$4,058…+$4,877] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,027 cycle +$1,227 [-$489…+$1,480] · 69% credit	82% surv 79%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$26	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.00/sh	+$24 cycle +$224 [-$1,294…+$357] · 43% credit	80% surv 74%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$28	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.02/sh	-$115 cycle +$85 [-$1,670…+$309] · 37% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $200 debit $115 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,962/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (23 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.245 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,379 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,179

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$22.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.16	40/50	$6,400	$7,565	88%	90%	+$3,421	-$1,490	0.0%	$49 (vs do-nothing $-4,130)
$22	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.23	28/50	$6,440	$9,002	83%	86%	+$2,940	-$2,247	0.0%	$84 (vs do-nothing $-4,095)
$23	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.46	47/50	$6,486	$6,835	80%	84%	+$1,860	-$0	0.0%	$3,086 (vs do-nothing $-1,092)
$21.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.32	20/50	$6,400	$9,894	77%	82%	+$2,312	-$2,425	0.0%	$434 (vs do-nothing $-3,745)
$22.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.58	37/50	$6,438	$7,952	77%	81%	+$1,779	-$0	0.0%	$1,913 (vs do-nothing $-2,266)
$23	17d	7 Aug 2026	$0.77	48/50	$6,522	$6,755	76%	82%	+$1,760	-$0	0.0%	$4,551 (vs do-nothing +$372)
$23	24d	14 Aug 2026	$1.07	48/50	$6,420	$6,653	74%	79%	+$1,144	-$0	0.0%	$5,991 (vs do-nothing +$1,812)
$22.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$0.88	42/50	$6,522	$7,454	73%	79%	+$1,497	-$0	0.0%	$2,867 (vs do-nothing $-1,312)
$22	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.72	30/50	$6,480	$8,809	73%	79%	+$1,687	-$937	0.0%	$1,262 (vs do-nothing $-2,917)
$22	17d	7 Aug 2026	$1.07	34/50	$6,420	$8,284	70%	78%	+$1,540	-$0	0.0%	$2,063 (vs do-nothing $-2,116)
$21	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.46	14/50	$6,440	$10,633	69%	77%	+$1,912	-$2,201	0.0%	$1,053 (vs do-nothing $-3,125)
$21.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.84	26/50	$6,552	$9,347	68%	77%	+$1,328	-$1,800	0.0%	$663 (vs do-nothing $-3,516)
$22	24d	14 Aug 2026	$1.27	41/50	$6,509	$7,557	68%	75%	+$598	-$0	0.0%	$2,447 (vs do-nothing $-1,732)

Show 10 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$21.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$1.17	31/50	$6,401	$8,614	66%	75%	+$1,094	-$1,124	0.0%	$1,009 (vs do-nothing $-3,170)
$21	10d	31 Jul 2026	$0.97	22/50	$6,402	$9,663	63%	73%	+$896	-$2,337	0.0%	$390 (vs do-nothing $-3,789)
$21	17d	7 Aug 2026	$1.34	28/50	$6,621	$9,184	62%	73%	+$938	-$1,939	0.0%	$392 (vs do-nothing $-3,787)
$21	24d	14 Aug 2026	$1.69	31/50	$6,549	$8,762	62%	72%	+$755	-$1,062	0.0%	$1,071 (vs do-nothing $-3,108)
$20.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.63	11/50	$6,930	$11,472	60%	72%	+$1,619	-$2,093	0.0%	$1,360 (vs do-nothing $-2,819)
$20.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.16	19/50	$6,612	$10,223	58%	70%	+$749	-$2,608	0.0%	$317 (vs do-nothing $-3,862)
$20.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$1.45	25/50	$6,397	$9,309	58%	71%	+$419	-$2,706	0.0%	$-177 (vs do-nothing $-4,356)
$20	24d	14 Aug 2026	$2.12	25/50	$6,625	$9,537	55%	69%	+$644	-$2,281	0.0%	$248 (vs do-nothing $-3,931)
$20	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.44	15/50	$6,480	$10,556	53%	68%	+$833	-$2,389	0.0%	$800 (vs do-nothing $-3,379)
$20	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.84	8/50	$6,720	$11,612	50%	67%	+$1,083	-$1,754	0.0%	$1,897 (vs do-nothing $-2,282)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 10:56