RIOTBBC @ $20.08 UNDERWATER $3.57 (15.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (10d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $22.94 (banked floor $22.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,912/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,992/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,456/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$14,912/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $22.94 (probe: $23C 17d) still earns $6,794/mo (46% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$650
Hole (after banked)
$16,850
was $17,500 · 4% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$22.94 → $22.84
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 47 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 30 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.71 (+53%) · daily UBB $29.93 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $22.94 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $23)
80%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,009 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $24 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$23 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.46/sh | +$2,312 cycle +$4,612 [+$1,637…+$2,836] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$24 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.56/sh | +$2,796 cycle +$5,096 [+$1,831…+$3,303] · 99% credit | 71% surv 61% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.08/sh | +$397 cycle +$2,697 [-$518…+$692] · 48% credit | 72% surv 62% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.12/sh | +$593 cycle +$2,893 [-$748…+$927] · 47% credit | 74% surv 67% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | -$0.34/sh | -$1,714 cycle +$586 [-$3,458…-$1,571] · 8% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| budget: banked $2,300 debit $1,714 (75% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$586 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $7,607/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $25 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $25)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 423 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.53/sh | +$2,630 cycle +$3,580 [+$2,316…+$4,103] · 100% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.21/sh | +$1,061 cycle +$2,011 [+$245…+$2,649] · 84% credit | 74% surv 66% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.14/sh | +$696 cycle +$1,646 [+$153…+$2,018] · 83% credit | 71% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.01/sh | +$47 cycle +$997 [-$875…+$1,471] · 51% credit | 77% surv 71% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $24 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $24)
96%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.12/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 104 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $25 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.89/sh | +$4,433 cycle +$4,683 [+$4,410…+$5,238] · 99% credit | 68% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.24/sh | +$1,214 cycle +$1,464 [+$82…+$2,004] · 76% credit | 82% surv 79% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.03/sh | +$131 cycle +$381 [-$873…+$642] · 52% credit | 79% surv 74% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.245 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,795 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,195
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 47/50 | $7,520 | $7,862 | 88% | 90% | +$4,019 | -$1,310 | 0.0% | $-901 (vs do-nothing $-3,096) |
| $22 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 33/50 | $7,590 | $9,528 | 83% | 86% | +$3,465 | -$2,339 | 0.0% | $-1,397 (vs do-nothing $-3,593) |
| $21.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 24/50 | $7,680 | $10,644 | 77% | 82% | +$2,774 | -$2,685 | 0.0% | $-1,402 (vs do-nothing $-3,597) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 43/50 | $7,482 | $8,280 | 77% | 81% | +$2,067 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,169 (vs do-nothing $-1,026) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 49/50 | $7,609 | $7,723 | 73% | 79% | +$1,747 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,496 (vs do-nothing +$301) |
| $22 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 35/50 | $7,560 | $9,270 | 73% | 79% | +$1,968 | -$765 | 0.0% | $100 (vs do-nothing $-2,095) |
| $22 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 40/50 | $7,553 | $8,693 | 70% | 78% | +$1,812 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,200 (vs do-nothing $-995) |
| $21 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 17/50 | $7,820 | $11,582 | 69% | 77% | +$2,322 | -$2,514 | 0.0% | $-965 (vs do-nothing $-3,160) |
| $21.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 30/50 | $7,560 | $9,840 | 68% | 77% | +$1,532 | -$1,796 | 0.0% | $-741 (vs do-nothing $-2,936) |
| $22 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.27 | 47/50 | $7,461 | $7,803 | 68% | 75% | +$678 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,966 (vs do-nothing $-229) |
| $21.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 37/50 | $7,639 | $9,121 | 66% | 75% | +$1,306 | -$994 | 0.0% | $-205 (vs do-nothing $-2,400) |
| $21 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 26/50 | $7,566 | $10,302 | 63% | 73% | +$1,059 | -$2,518 | 0.0% | $-1,311 (vs do-nothing $-3,506) |
| $21 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 32/50 | $7,567 | $9,619 | 62% | 73% | +$1,072 | -$1,916 | 0.0% | $-937 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $21 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.69 | 36/50 | $7,605 | $9,201 | 62% | 72% | +$870 | -$895 | 0.0% | $-68 (vs do-nothing $-2,263) |
| $20.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 12/50 | $7,560 | $11,892 | 60% | 72% | +$1,652 | -$2,170 | 0.0% | $-431 (vs do-nothing $-2,626) |
| $20.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 22/50 | $7,656 | $10,848 | 58% | 70% | +$868 | -$2,813 | 0.0% | $-1,454 (vs do-nothing $-3,649) |
| $20.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 30/50 | $7,676 | $9,956 | 58% | 71% | +$503 | -$2,966 | 0.0% | $-1,911 (vs do-nothing $-4,106) |
| $20 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.12 | 29/50 | $7,685 | $10,079 | 55% | 69% | +$742 | -$2,374 | 0.0% | $-1,281 (vs do-nothing $-3,476) |
| $20 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 24/50 | $7,496 | $10,460 | 54% | 69% | +$780 | -$2,805 | 0.0% | $-1,522 (vs do-nothing $-3,717) |
| $20 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.44 | 18/50 | $7,776 | $11,424 | 53% | 68% | +$1,000 | -$2,698 | 0.0% | $-1,187 (vs do-nothing $-3,382) |
| $20 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 9/50 | $7,560 | $12,234 | 50% | 67% | +$1,090 | -$1,889 | 0.0% | $-36 (vs do-nothing $-2,231) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.