RIOTBBC @ $20.22 UNDERWATER $3.43 (14.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (10d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $23.07 (banked floor $22.97) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,676/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,992/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,838/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$13,676/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $23.07 (probe: $23C 17d) still earns $6,794/mo (50% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$650
Hole (after banked)
$16,850
was $17,500 · 4% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$23.07 → $22.97
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 30 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.71 (+52%) · daily UBB $29.93 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $23.07 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $24 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $24)
78%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.80/sh now → $1.99 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)
82%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.28 mid-life (likely $1.30–$2.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 838 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $24 (overshoots $0.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.44/sh | +$2,183 cycle +$4,083 [+$1,559…+$2,789] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.14/sh | +$725 cycle +$2,625 [-$44…+$1,059] · 72% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.19/sh | +$973 cycle +$2,873 [-$111…+$1,345] · 70% credit | 74% surv 66% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | -$0.27/sh | -$1,358 cycle +$542 [-$2,928…-$1,153] · 10% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| budget: banked $1,900 debit $1,358 (71% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$542 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $7,939/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $25 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $25)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.98/sh now → $1.40 mid-life (likely $1.14–$1.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 465 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.48/sh | +$2,402 cycle +$3,352 [+$2,110…+$3,690] · 100% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.27/sh | +$1,352 cycle +$2,302 [+$783…+$2,799] · 94% credit | 73% surv 65% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$28 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.07/sh | +$341 cycle +$1,291 [-$364…+$1,629] · 60% credit | 77% surv 70% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.01/sh | +$67 cycle +$1,017 [-$488…+$1,145] · 52% credit | 72% surv 63% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (22 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.245 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,751 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,151
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 43/50 | $6,880 | $7,678 | 88% | 89% | +$3,619 | -$1,769 | 0.0% | $-1,253 (vs do-nothing $-3,403) |
| $22 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 30/50 | $6,900 | $9,180 | 82% | 85% | +$2,945 | -$2,524 | 0.0% | $-1,514 (vs do-nothing $-3,664) |
| $23 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 50/50 | $6,900 | $6,900 | 79% | 83% | +$1,532 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,193 (vs do-nothing +$43) |
| $21.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 22/50 | $7,040 | $10,232 | 76% | 81% | +$2,220 | -$2,753 | 0.0% | $-1,439 (vs do-nothing $-3,589) |
| $22.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 40/50 | $6,960 | $8,100 | 75% | 80% | +$1,492 | -$0 | 0.0% | $665 (vs do-nothing $-1,486) |
| $22.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 45/50 | $6,988 | $7,558 | 72% | 78% | +$1,256 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,829 (vs do-nothing $-322) |
| $22 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 32/50 | $6,912 | $8,964 | 71% | 77% | +$1,387 | -$1,125 | 0.0% | $-190 (vs do-nothing $-2,341) |
| $22 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 37/50 | $6,986 | $8,468 | 69% | 77% | +$1,350 | -$6 | 0.0% | $739 (vs do-nothing $-1,412) |
| $22 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.27 | 44/50 | $6,985 | $7,669 | 67% | 75% | +$682 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,352 (vs do-nothing $-799) |
| $21 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 15/50 | $6,900 | $10,890 | 67% | 75% | +$1,681 | -$2,417 | 0.0% | $-837 (vs do-nothing $-2,987) |
| $21.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 28/50 | $7,056 | $9,564 | 67% | 76% | +$1,004 | -$2,048 | 0.0% | $-962 (vs do-nothing $-3,112) |
| $21.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 34/50 | $7,020 | $8,844 | 65% | 74% | +$861 | -$1,365 | 0.0% | $-507 (vs do-nothing $-2,657) |
| $21 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.97 | 24/50 | $6,984 | $9,948 | 62% | 72% | +$553 | -$2,644 | 0.0% | $-1,405 (vs do-nothing $-3,556) |
Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $21 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 29/50 | $6,858 | $9,252 | 61% | 72% | +$648 | -$2,121 | 0.0% | $-1,073 (vs do-nothing $-3,223) |
| $21 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.69 | 33/50 | $6,971 | $8,909 | 61% | 72% | +$813 | -$1,259 | 0.0% | $-362 (vs do-nothing $-2,513) |
| $20.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 11/50 | $6,930 | $11,376 | 58% | 70% | +$1,122 | -$2,136 | 0.0% | $-403 (vs do-nothing $-2,554) |
| $20.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 27/50 | $6,909 | $9,531 | 57% | 70% | +$118 | -$3,028 | 0.0% | $-1,903 (vs do-nothing $-4,054) |
| $20.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 20/50 | $6,960 | $10,380 | 57% | 69% | +$381 | -$2,823 | 0.0% | $-1,432 (vs do-nothing $-3,583) |
| $20 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.12 | 26/50 | $6,890 | $9,626 | 54% | 69% | +$634 | -$2,474 | 0.0% | $-1,311 (vs do-nothing $-3,462) |
| $20 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 22/50 | $6,872 | $10,064 | 53% | 68% | +$414 | -$2,863 | 0.0% | $-1,549 (vs do-nothing $-3,699) |
| $20 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.44 | 16/50 | $6,912 | $10,788 | 51% | 67% | +$519 | -$2,610 | 0.0% | $-1,068 (vs do-nothing $-3,218) |
| $20 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 9/50 | $7,560 | $12,234 | 47% | 65% | +$663 | -$2,008 | 0.0% | $-200 (vs do-nothing $-2,350) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.