RIOTBBC @ $20.41 UNDERWATER $3.24 (13.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.26 (banked floor $21.15) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,294/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,823/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,700 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,147/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$14,294/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.26 (probe: $21.5C 17d) still earns $10,059/mo (70% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$650
Hole (after banked)
$4,050
was $4,700 · 14% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$21.26 → $21.15
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 34 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.73 (+51%) · daily UBB $29.07 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.26 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $22 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
70%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.58–$2.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,526 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $23 (overshoots $0.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$22 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.22/sh | +$1,096 cycle +$4,946 [-$190…+$830] · 63% credit | 68% surv 55% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.22/sh | +$1,109 cycle +$4,959 [-$222…+$832] · 62% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,433 cycle +$5,283 [-$407…+$1,004] · 58% credit | 69% surv 59% |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | -$0.60/sh | -$3,022 cycle +$828 [-$5,719…-$3,826] · 1% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| budget: banked $3,850 debit $3,022 (79% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$828 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $5,505/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $22.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 596 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $23 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.56/sh | +$2,795 cycle +$3,645 [+$1,969…+$3,181] · 95% credit | 66% surv 53% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.40/sh | +$2,013 cycle +$2,863 [+$541…+$2,352] · 83% credit | 76% surv 70% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.11/sh | +$544 cycle +$1,394 [-$676…+$740] · 52% credit | 76% surv 69% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.14/sh | +$691 cycle +$1,541 [-$948…+$959] · 51% credit | 80% surv 76% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.11/sh | -$555 cycle +$295 [-$2,487…-$375] · 12% credit | 83% surv 81% |
| budget: banked $850 debit $555 (65% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$295 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $4,291/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $25 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $25)
89%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.30–$2.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 506 simulated challenges: the $25 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $26 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$25 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.27/sh | +$1,369 cycle +$2,519 [+$657…+$2,750] · 93% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$26 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.39/sh | +$1,954 cycle +$3,104 [+$947…+$3,523] · 93% credit | 69% surv 59% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$26 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.01/sh | +$33 cycle +$1,183 [-$864…+$1,276] · 46% credit | 69% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.01/sh | +$58 cycle +$1,208 [-$1,195…+$1,477] · 45% credit | 72% surv 64% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.251 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,303 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,753
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 43/50 | $7,310 | $7,793 | 84% | 86% | +$2,068 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,495 (vs do-nothing $-258) |
| $22 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 28/50 | $7,280 | $8,798 | 79% | 82% | +$1,954 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,837 (vs do-nothing +$84) |
| $21.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 23/50 | $7,360 | $9,223 | 72% | 78% | +$609 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,960 (vs do-nothing +$207) |
| $22 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 31/50 | $7,161 | $8,472 | 70% | 77% | +$1,392 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,427 (vs do-nothing +$1,674) |
| $22 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 40/50 | $7,200 | $7,890 | 67% | 76% | +$848 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,913 (vs do-nothing +$3,160) |
| $22 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.24 | 47/50 | $7,285 | $7,492 | 66% | 75% | +$82 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,500 (vs do-nothing +$4,747) |
| $21.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 32/50 | $7,200 | $8,442 | 65% | 74% | $-230 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,417 (vs do-nothing +$1,664) |
| $21.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 36/50 | $7,242 | $8,208 | 64% | 74% | +$442 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,029 (vs do-nothing +$3,276) |
| $21 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 13/50 | $7,150 | $9,703 | 63% | 73% | +$1,385 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,834 (vs do-nothing +$81) |
| $21 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 22/50 | $7,326 | $9,258 | 60% | 72% | +$1,012 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,122 (vs do-nothing +$1,369) |
| $21 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 36/50 | $7,200 | $8,166 | 60% | 71% | $-158 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,757 (vs do-nothing +$4,004) |
| $21 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.36 | 30/50 | $7,200 | $8,580 | 59% | 72% | +$498 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,369 (vs do-nothing +$2,617) |
| $20.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.62 | 25/50 | $7,147 | $8,872 | 55% | 70% | +$584 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,333 (vs do-nothing +$1,581) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $20.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 20/50 | $7,320 | $9,390 | 55% | 69% | +$194 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,217 (vs do-nothing +$465) |
| $20.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 10/50 | $7,300 | $10,060 | 54% | 68% | +$807 | -$28 | 0.0% | $1,495 (vs do-nothing $-258) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.