FORTRESS FIGHT: RIOT @ $21.10

BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.84 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RIOTBBC @ $21.10 UNDERWATER $2.55 (10.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.84 (banked floor $20.74) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)

SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)

HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$30,601	(ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000
Normal income ref	$17,437/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,797/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$2,175	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,719/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$17,437/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $30,601

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.84 (probe: $21C 16d) still earns $17,437/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$650

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$20.84 → $20.74

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 38 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.77 (+46%) · daily UBB $29.06 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.84 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 50 × $22 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $22)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$2,350

Income / mo

$35,250

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.83–$1.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,131 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.86/sh	+$4,295 cycle +$6,645 [+$2,974…+$4,215] · 98% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$26	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.32/sh	+$1,595 cycle +$3,945 [-$965…+$1,320] · 61% credit	82% surv 78%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$622 cycle +$2,972 [-$1,833…+$314] · 37% credit	78% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$27	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.11/sh	+$557 cycle +$2,907 [-$2,326…+$220] · 33% credit	85% surv 82%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$27	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.44/sh	-$2,188 cycle +$162 [-$5,981…-$2,727]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $2,350 debit $2,188 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$162 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $4,832/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23)

85%

Touch odds

30%

Per cycle

$1,200

Income / mo

$18,000

Buyback gross: $1.05/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 492 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $24 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$23	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.92/sh	+$4,581 cycle +$5,781 [+$3,473…+$4,649] · 98% credit	69% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.41/sh	+$2,050 cycle +$3,250 [-$105…+$1,985] · 74% credit	81% surv 77%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$950 cycle +$2,150 [-$1,506…+$825] · 51% credit	84% surv 81%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$25	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.04/sh	+$181 cycle +$1,381 [-$2,126…+$0] · 25% credit	80% surv 74%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$28	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.10/sh	-$504 cycle +$696 [-$3,249…-$696] · 7% credit	86% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,200 debit $504 (42% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$696 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,410/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $23.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$850

Income / mo

$12,750

Buyback gross: $1.08/sh now → $0.77 mid-life (likely $0.82–$1.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 314 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $24 (overshoots $0.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.95/sh	+$4,726 cycle +$5,576 [+$3,788…+$4,926] · 98% credit	69% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.46/sh	+$2,288 cycle +$3,138 [+$475…+$2,343] · 83% credit	81% surv 76%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.23/sh	+$1,159 cycle +$2,009 [-$936…+$1,125] · 60% credit	83% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$26	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$293 cycle +$1,143 [-$1,725…+$177] · 34% credit	79% surv 74%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$28	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.07/sh	-$371 cycle +$479 [-$2,744…-$492] · 11% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $850 debit $371 (44% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$479 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,912/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (23 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.262 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $7,325

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$24	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.12	49/50	$8,820	$9,013	94%	94%	+$6,845	-$0	0.0%	$2,866 (vs do-nothing $-4,459)
$23.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.17	35/50	$8,925	$11,822	90%	92%	+$6,270	-$0	0.0%	$4,315 (vs do-nothing $-3,010)
$23	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.24	25/50	$9,000	$13,828	85%	88%	+$5,545	-$0	0.0%	$5,350 (vs do-nothing $-1,975)
$24	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.58	46/50	$8,893	$9,666	79%	83%	+$3,061	-$0	0.0%	$5,255 (vs do-nothing $-2,070)
$22.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.34	18/50	$9,180	$15,360	79%	84%	+$4,823	-$0	0.0%	$6,083 (vs do-nothing $-1,242)
$23.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.69	38/50	$8,740	$11,057	76%	81%	+$2,684	-$0	0.0%	$6,033 (vs do-nothing $-1,292)
$23.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.03	46/50	$8,884	$9,656	73%	79%	+$2,602	-$0	0.0%	$7,325 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$23	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.82	32/50	$8,747	$12,223	72%	78%	+$2,381	-$0	0.0%	$6,653 (vs do-nothing $-672)
$22	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.47	13/50	$9,165	$16,311	70%	79%	+$3,889	-$0	0.0%	$6,597 (vs do-nothing $-728)
$23	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.17	40/50	$8,775	$10,706	69%	77%	+$2,336	-$0	0.0%	$7,885 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$23	23d	14 Aug 2026	$1.51	45/50	$8,863	$9,829	68%	76%	+$2,250	-$0	0.0%	$9,485 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$22.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.99	27/50	$8,910	$13,352	67%	76%	+$2,259	-$0	0.0%	$7,217 (vs do-nothing $-108)
$22.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.33	35/50	$8,728	$11,625	66%	75%	+$2,106	-$0	0.0%	$8,375 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)

Show 10 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$22	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.17	23/50	$8,970	$14,184	63%	73%	+$2,011	-$0	0.0%	$7,647 (vs do-nothing +$322)
$22	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.53	31/50	$8,893	$12,562	62%	73%	+$2,025	-$0	0.0%	$8,875 (vs do-nothing +$1,550)
$22	23d	14 Aug 2026	$1.87	36/50	$8,781	$11,485	61%	73%	+$1,836	-$0	0.0%	$10,349 (vs do-nothing +$3,024)
$21.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.65	9/50	$8,775	$16,693	60%	74%	+$2,937	-$0	0.0%	$6,983 (vs do-nothing $-342)
$21.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.72	28/50	$9,030	$13,279	58%	72%	+$1,794	-$0	0.0%	$9,257 (vs do-nothing +$1,932)
$21.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.36	20/50	$9,067	$14,860	58%	71%	+$1,701	-$0	0.0%	$7,985 (vs do-nothing +$660)
$21	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.31	29/50	$8,738	$12,793	55%	69%	+$828	-$0	0.0%	$11,037 (vs do-nothing +$3,712)
$21	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.96	24/50	$8,820	$13,841	53%	69%	+$1,617	-$0	0.0%	$9,557 (vs do-nothing +$2,232)
$21	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.60	17/50	$9,067	$15,440	53%	69%	+$1,516	-$0	0.0%	$8,294 (vs do-nothing +$969)
$21	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	7/50	$9,660	$17,964	49%	70%	+$2,788	-$0	0.0%	$7,248 (vs do-nothing $-77)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 03:37