FORTRESS FIGHT: RIOT @ $21.31

BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.71 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RIOTBBC @ $21.31 UNDERWATER $2.34 (9.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.71 (banked floor $20.60) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)

SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)

HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$30,601	(ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000
Normal income ref	$18,188/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,797/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$4,300	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,094/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,188/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $30,601

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.71 (probe: $21C 16d) still earns $17,203/mo (95% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$650

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$20.71 → $20.60

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.79 (+44%) · daily UBB $29.07 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.71 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $21)

44%

Touch odds

100%

Per cycle

$5,500

Income / mo

$82,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$21	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.77/sh	+$3,863 cycle +$9,363	69% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$22	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$666 cycle +$6,166	77% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$25	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.16/sh	+$777 cycle +$6,277	83% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.52/sh	-$2,590 cycle +$2,910	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $5,500 debit $2,590 (47% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,910 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $4,155/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23)

85%

Touch odds

31%

Per cycle

$1,450

Income / mo

$21,750

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$23	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.88/sh	+$4,401 cycle +$5,851 [+$2,551…+$4,366] · 93% credit	70% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.41/sh	+$2,057 cycle +$3,507 [-$764…+$1,903] · 67% credit	81% surv 76%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.18/sh	+$877 cycle +$2,327 [-$2,218…+$683] · 43% credit	84% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$25	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.15/sh	+$762 cycle +$2,212 [-$2,062…+$492] · 41% credit	77% surv 69%

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $23.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$950

Income / mo

$14,250

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.91/sh	+$4,540 cycle +$5,490 [+$2,984…+$4,563] · 96% credit	70% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.46/sh	+$2,302 cycle +$3,252 [-$106…+$2,222] · 74% credit	81% surv 75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$28	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.22/sh	+$1,096 cycle +$2,046 [-$1,573…+$961] · 52% credit	83% surv 80%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$25	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.18/sh	+$881 cycle +$1,831 [-$1,503…+$716] · 50% credit	77% surv 69%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.764 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $10,050

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$24	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.13	47/50	$9,165	$9,812	94%	95%	+$7,690	-$0	0.0%	$5,256 (vs do-nothing $-4,794)
$23.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.19	32/50	$9,120	$13,001	90%	92%	+$6,980	-$0	0.0%	$6,978 (vs do-nothing $-3,072)
$23	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.29	21/50	$9,135	$15,388	85%	89%	+$6,334	-$0	0.0%	$8,244 (vs do-nothing $-1,806)
$24	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.63	44/50	$9,240	$10,534	78%	83%	+$3,535	-$0	0.0%	$7,762 (vs do-nothing $-2,288)
$22.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.42	15/50	$9,450	$16,997	77%	84%	+$5,716	-$0	0.0%	$8,955 (vs do-nothing $-1,095)
$23.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.75	37/50	$9,250	$12,053	74%	80%	+$3,158	-$0	0.0%	$8,570 (vs do-nothing $-1,480)
$24	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.00	49/50	$9,188	$9,403	74%	80%	+$3,061	-$0	0.0%	$9,315 (vs do-nothing $-735)
$23.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.15	43/50	$9,272	$10,781	71%	79%	+$2,903	-$0	0.0%	$10,050 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$23	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.92	30/50	$9,200	$13,512	70%	78%	+$2,983	-$0	0.0%	$9,360 (vs do-nothing $-690)
$23	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.33	37/50	$9,227	$12,030	68%	77%	+$2,758	-$0	0.0%	$10,716 (vs do-nothing +$666)
$22	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.60	11/50	$9,900	$18,309	67%	79%	+$5,121	-$0	0.0%	$9,445 (vs do-nothing $-605)
$23	23d	14 Aug 2026	$1.67	42/50	$9,149	$10,874	66%	76%	+$2,588	-$0	0.0%	$12,234 (vs do-nothing +$2,184)
$22.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.11	25/50	$9,250	$14,641	66%	76%	+$2,791	-$0	0.0%	$9,950 (vs do-nothing $-100)

Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$22.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.50	33/50	$9,281	$12,947	64%	75%	+$2,499	-$0	0.0%	$11,205 (vs do-nothing +$1,155)
$22	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.32	21/50	$9,240	$15,493	61%	73%	+$2,543	-$0	0.0%	$10,407 (vs do-nothing +$357)
$22	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.72	29/50	$9,352	$13,881	60%	73%	+$2,378	-$0	0.0%	$11,703 (vs do-nothing +$1,653)
$22	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.04	35/50	$9,313	$12,547	60%	73%	+$2,146	-$0	0.0%	$13,165 (vs do-nothing +$3,115)
$21.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.82	8/50	$9,840	$18,896	56%	75%	+$4,158	-$0	0.0%	$9,786 (vs do-nothing $-264)
$21.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.94	25/50	$9,094	$14,484	56%	71%	+$2,093	-$0	0.0%	$12,025 (vs do-nothing +$1,975)
$21.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.55	18/50	$9,300	$16,200	55%	71%	+$2,288	-$0	0.0%	$10,770 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$21	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.48	29/50	$9,381	$13,909	53%	70%	+$1,728	-$0	0.0%	$13,907 (vs do-nothing +$3,857)
$21	16d	7 Aug 2026	$2.15	23/50	$9,272	$15,094	52%	69%	+$1,812	-$0	0.0%	$12,350 (vs do-nothing +$2,300)
$21	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.79	16/50	$9,547	$16,878	50%	69%	+$2,013	-$0	0.0%	$11,074 (vs do-nothing +$1,024)
$21	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.10	6/50	$9,900	$19,388	44%	70%	+$3,364	-$0	0.0%	$10,020 (vs do-nothing $-30)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:15