FORTRESS FIGHT: RIOT @ $21.12

BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.53 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RIOTBBC @ $21.12 UNDERWATER $2.53 (10.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.53 (banked floor $20.42) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)

SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)

HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$30,601	(ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000
Normal income ref	$19,031/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,797/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$4,300	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,516/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$19,031/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $30,601

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.53 (probe: $21C 16d) still earns $19,031/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$650

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$20.53 → $20.42

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 38 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.79 (+46%) · daily UBB $29.06 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.53 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 50 × $23 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23)

69%

Touch odds

67%

Per cycle

$6,650

Income / mo

$12,469

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$23	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.44/sh	+$2,208 cycle +$8,858 [+$1,109…+$1,918] · 99% credit	70% surv 53%
SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$23	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.39/sh	+$1,936 cycle +$8,586 [+$825…+$1,624] · 99% credit	70% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$28	14 Aug 2026	15d left	-$1.18/sh	-$5,889 cycle +$761 [-$8,733…-$6,994]	87% surv 84%
budget: banked $6,650 debit $5,889 (89% used ≈ 2.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$761 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,631/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $22.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $22.50)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$2,100

Income / mo

$31,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.20/sh now → $0.85 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 724 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $23 (overshoots $0.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.95/sh	+$4,740 cycle +$6,840 [+$3,106…+$4,703] · 95% credit	71% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$26	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.37/sh	+$1,864 cycle +$3,964 [-$1,162…+$1,665] · 61% credit	82% surv 77%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$647 cycle +$2,747 [-$2,110…+$388] · 38% credit	80% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$27	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$697 cycle +$2,797 [-$2,630…+$433] · 37% credit	85% surv 81%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.39/sh	-$1,937 cycle +$163 [-$5,746…-$2,395]	88% surv 86%
budget: banked $2,100 debit $1,937 (92% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$163 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $8,612/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $26 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $26)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,350

Income / mo

$4,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.57/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 399 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $27 (overshoots $0.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$26	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.61/sh	+$3,067 cycle +$4,417 [+$2,580…+$4,958] · 98% credit	70% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$28	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.40/sh	+$1,991 cycle +$3,341 [+$1,113…+$3,922] · 91% credit	76% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$27	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.01/sh	+$25 cycle +$1,375 [-$907…+$1,432] · 53% credit	74% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$29	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.00/sh	+$19 cycle +$1,369 [-$1,164…+$1,789] · 53% credit	78% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$30	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.27/sh	-$1,344 cycle +$6 [-$2,681…+$271] · 29% credit	81% surv 75%
budget: banked $1,350 debit $1,344 (100% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $12,933/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (23 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $10,050

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$24	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.13	49/50	$9,555	$9,771	95%	96%	+$8,494	-$0	0.0%	$5,052 (vs do-nothing $-4,998)
$23.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.19	34/50	$9,690	$13,140	92%	94%	+$8,063	-$0	0.0%	$6,786 (vs do-nothing $-3,264)
$23	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.29	22/50	$9,570	$15,607	87%	91%	+$7,392	-$0	0.0%	$8,158 (vs do-nothing $-1,892)
$24	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.63	46/50	$9,660	$10,522	81%	85%	+$4,995	-$0	0.0%	$7,658 (vs do-nothing $-2,392)
$22.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.42	16/50	$10,080	$17,411	80%	87%	+$7,019	-$0	0.0%	$8,882 (vs do-nothing $-1,168)
$23.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.75	39/50	$9,750	$12,122	77%	83%	+$4,618	-$0	0.0%	$8,490 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$23	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.92	32/50	$9,813	$13,695	73%	81%	+$4,408	-$0	0.0%	$9,314 (vs do-nothing $-736)
$23.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.15	45/50	$9,703	$10,781	72%	80%	+$3,571	-$0	0.0%	$10,050 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$22	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.60	11/50	$9,900	$18,309	71%	83%	+$6,101	-$0	0.0%	$9,445 (vs do-nothing $-605)
$23	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.33	39/50	$9,726	$12,098	69%	78%	+$3,430	-$0	0.0%	$10,752 (vs do-nothing +$702)
$22.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.11	26/50	$9,620	$14,795	68%	78%	+$4,044	-$0	0.0%	$9,946 (vs do-nothing $-104)
$23	23d	14 Aug 2026	$1.67	44/50	$9,584	$10,878	68%	77%	+$3,156	-$0	0.0%	$12,338 (vs do-nothing +$2,288)
$22.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.50	34/50	$9,562	$13,012	66%	76%	+$3,087	-$0	0.0%	$11,240 (vs do-nothing +$1,190)

Show 10 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$22	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.32	22/50	$9,680	$15,718	63%	76%	+$3,756	-$0	0.0%	$10,424 (vs do-nothing +$374)
$22	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.72	30/50	$9,675	$13,988	62%	74%	+$2,964	-$0	0.0%	$11,760 (vs do-nothing +$1,710)
$22	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.04	36/50	$9,579	$12,598	61%	74%	+$2,645	-$0	0.0%	$13,254 (vs do-nothing +$3,204)
$21.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.82	8/50	$9,840	$18,896	61%	78%	+$5,178	-$0	0.0%	$9,786 (vs do-nothing $-264)
$21.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.94	27/50	$9,821	$14,781	58%	73%	+$2,763	-$0	0.0%	$12,183 (vs do-nothing +$2,133)
$21.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.55	19/50	$9,817	$16,501	58%	74%	+$3,467	-$0	0.0%	$10,810 (vs do-nothing +$760)
$21	23d	14 Aug 2026	$2.48	30/50	$9,704	$14,017	54%	71%	+$2,217	-$0	0.0%	$14,040 (vs do-nothing +$3,990)
$21	16d	7 Aug 2026	$2.15	24/50	$9,675	$15,281	53%	71%	+$2,381	-$0	0.0%	$12,450 (vs do-nothing +$2,400)
$21	9d	31 Jul 2026	$1.79	16/50	$9,547	$16,878	52%	72%	+$2,986	-$0	0.0%	$11,074 (vs do-nothing +$1,024)
$21	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.10	6/50	$9,900	$19,388	49%	74%	+$4,378	-$0	0.0%	$10,020 (vs do-nothing $-30)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:45