RIOTBBC @ $21.66 UNDERWATER $1.99 (8.4% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.35 (banked floor $21.25) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $18,562/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,669/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $2,525 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,281/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$18,562/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.35 (probe: $21.5C 16d) still earns $18,562/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$650
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$21.35 → $21.25
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 44 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.78 (+42%) · daily UBB $28.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.35 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)
49%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.20/sh now → $0.85 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.68/sh | +$3,421 cycle +$9,321 | 69% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.12/sh | +$594 cycle +$6,494 | 77% surv 69% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.24/sh | +$1,209 cycle +$7,109 | 81% surv 76% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | -$0.71/sh | -$3,526 cycle +$2,374 | 94% surv 93% |
| budget: banked $5,900 debit $3,526 (60% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,374 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $2,657/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $24 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $24)
70%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.54/sh now → $2.51 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life (likely $1.06–$2.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 619 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $24 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.78/sh | +$3,912 cycle +$5,362 [+$1,997…+$3,881] · 89% credit | 69% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$27 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.46/sh | +$2,301 cycle +$3,751 [-$737…+$2,183] · 66% credit | 79% surv 73% |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$25 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.28/sh | +$1,416 cycle +$2,866 [-$1,073…+$1,296] · 59% credit | 76% surv 66% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.03/sh | -$125 cycle +$1,325 [-$3,693…-$347] · 15% credit | 81% surv 76% |
| budget: banked $1,450 debit $125 (9% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,325 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $9,347/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.274 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $8,275
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $24.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 45/50 | $9,450 | $10,528 | 93% | 94% | +$7,014 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,730 (vs do-nothing $-4,545) |
| $24 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 30/50 | $9,450 | $13,762 | 89% | 91% | +$6,473 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,455 (vs do-nothing $-2,820) |
| $23.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 22/50 | $9,570 | $15,607 | 83% | 87% | +$5,658 | -$0 | 0.0% | $6,383 (vs do-nothing $-1,892) |
| $23 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 14/50 | $9,870 | $17,632 | 76% | 83% | +$5,584 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,323 (vs do-nothing $-952) |
| $24 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 35/50 | $9,333 | $12,568 | 75% | 81% | +$3,775 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,050 (vs do-nothing $-1,225) |
| $23.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 45/50 | $9,450 | $10,528 | 71% | 78% | +$435 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,935 (vs do-nothing $-2,340) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.15 | 44/50 | $9,488 | $10,781 | 68% | 77% | +$1,761 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,275 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $22.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 10/50 | $10,050 | $18,675 | 68% | 79% | +$5,041 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,795 (vs do-nothing $-480) |
| $23 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 25/50 | $9,500 | $14,891 | 67% | 77% | +$3,242 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,250 (vs do-nothing $-25) |
| $23 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.39 | 36/50 | $9,382 | $12,401 | 65% | 75% | +$1,952 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,139 (vs do-nothing +$864) |
| $23 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.65 | 44/50 | $9,470 | $10,763 | 64% | 75% | +$1,524 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,475 (vs do-nothing +$2,200) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.09 | 26/50 | $9,447 | $14,622 | 62% | 74% | +$1,399 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,119 (vs do-nothing $-156) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.62 | 31/50 | $9,416 | $13,513 | 61% | 74% | +$1,932 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,732 (vs do-nothing +$1,457) |
Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $22 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 7/50 | $9,555 | $18,827 | 59% | 75% | +$4,115 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,107 (vs do-nothing $-168) |
| $22 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.09 | 35/50 | $9,541 | $12,776 | 58% | 72% | +$1,479 | -$0 | 0.0% | $11,565 (vs do-nothing +$3,290) |
| $22 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 27/50 | $9,619 | $14,578 | 57% | 72% | +$2,035 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,300 (vs do-nothing +$2,025) |
| $22 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 20/50 | $9,400 | $15,869 | 57% | 72% | +$1,825 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,795 (vs do-nothing +$520) |
| $21.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 24/50 | $9,630 | $15,236 | 53% | 71% | +$1,832 | -$0 | 0.0% | $10,651 (vs do-nothing +$2,376) |
| $21.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 16/50 | $9,333 | $16,665 | 52% | 70% | +$1,999 | -$0 | 0.0% | $9,235 (vs do-nothing +$960) |
| $21.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 6/50 | $10,620 | $20,108 | 49% | 72% | +$3,762 | -$0 | 0.0% | $8,293 (vs do-nothing +$18) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.