RIOTBBC @ $22.49 UNDERWATER $1.16 (4.9% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (2d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.86 (banked floor $20.76) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $18,938/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,627/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $10,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,469/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$18,938/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.86 (probe: $22.5C 16d) still earns $18,938/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$650
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$20.86 → $20.76
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 50 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.87 (+37%) · daily UBB $28.48 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.86 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $25 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $25)
70%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.90/sh now → $2.06 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $24.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $24.50)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 540 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $25 (overshoots $0.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$24 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.98/sh | +$4,924 cycle +$5,724 [+$4,346…+$5,122] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$29 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.39/sh | +$1,974 cycle +$2,774 [-$73…+$1,881] · 74% credit | 80% surv 77% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.18/sh | +$921 cycle +$1,721 [-$1,377…+$775] · 52% credit | 83% surv 80% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$27 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.05/sh | +$261 cycle +$1,061 [-$1,725…+$89] · 31% credit | 79% surv 74% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $28 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 405 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $29 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.69/sh | +$3,427 cycle +$4,027 [+$2,998…+$4,762] · 100% credit | 68% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.24/sh | +$1,210 cycle +$1,810 [+$200…+$2,605] · 78% credit | 75% surv 67% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$323 cycle +$923 [-$359…+$1,462] · 63% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.08/sh | -$382 cycle +$218 [-$1,619…+$888] · 38% credit | 77% surv 71% |
| budget: banked $600 debit $382 (64% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$218 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $13,331/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.284 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $18,750
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $24.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 40/50 | $9,600 | $12,581 | 85% | 87% | +$3,129 | -$0 | 0.0% | $13,030 (vs do-nothing $-5,720) |
| $24 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 25/50 | $9,750 | $17,203 | 79% | 82% | +$3,091 | -$0 | 0.0% | $15,425 (vs do-nothing $-3,325) |
| $25 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 44/50 | $9,680 | $11,469 | 76% | 80% | +$2,395 | -$0 | 0.0% | $14,658 (vs do-nothing $-4,092) |
| $25 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 48/50 | $9,540 | $10,136 | 72% | 78% | +$2,342 | -$0 | 0.0% | $16,206 (vs do-nothing $-2,544) |
| $24.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 36/50 | $9,480 | $13,654 | 72% | 78% | +$2,121 | -$0 | 0.0% | $15,870 (vs do-nothing $-2,880) |
| $23.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 17/50 | $9,690 | $19,528 | 71% | 78% | +$2,423 | -$0 | 0.0% | $16,693 (vs do-nothing $-2,057) |
| $24.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 42/50 | $9,529 | $11,914 | 69% | 77% | +$2,152 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,154 (vs do-nothing $-1,596) |
| $24 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 31/50 | $9,713 | $15,378 | 68% | 76% | +$1,935 | -$0 | 0.0% | $16,735 (vs do-nothing $-2,015) |
| $24 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 37/50 | $9,712 | $13,588 | 66% | 75% | +$2,130 | -$0 | 0.0% | $18,047 (vs do-nothing $-703) |
| $24 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 42/50 | $9,697 | $12,082 | 64% | 73% | +$1,052 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,506 (vs do-nothing +$756) |
| $23.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 26/50 | $9,793 | $16,948 | 63% | 73% | +$1,840 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,554 (vs do-nothing $-1,196) |
| $23.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.59 | 32/50 | $9,540 | $14,906 | 62% | 72% | +$1,145 | -$0 | 0.0% | $18,750 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 12/50 | $10,080 | $21,409 | 62% | 73% | +$2,138 | -$0 | 0.0% | $17,514 (vs do-nothing $-1,236) |
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $23 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 34/50 | $9,668 | $14,438 | 59% | 71% | +$978 | -$0 | 0.0% | $20,756 (vs do-nothing +$2,006) |
| $23 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 22/50 | $9,827 | $18,174 | 59% | 71% | +$1,683 | -$0 | 0.0% | $18,200 (vs do-nothing $-550) |
| $23 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.78 | 29/50 | $9,679 | $15,939 | 58% | 71% | +$996 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,301 (vs do-nothing +$551) |
| $22.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.02 | 25/50 | $9,469 | $16,922 | 55% | 69% | +$959 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,825 (vs do-nothing +$1,075) |
| $22.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 19/50 | $9,943 | $19,185 | 54% | 69% | +$1,502 | -$0 | 0.0% | $18,712 (vs do-nothing $-38) |
| $22.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 8/50 | $9,480 | $22,001 | 52% | 68% | +$1,618 | -$0 | 0.0% | $18,110 (vs do-nothing $-640) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.