RIOTBBC @ $23.41 UNDERWATER $0.24 (1.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.94 (banked floor $20.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $20,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,642/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $16,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,250/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$20,500/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.94 (probe: $23C 15d) still earns $18,700/mo (91% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$650
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$20.94 → $20.84
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 58 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.87 (+32%) · daily UBB $28.54 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.94 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $26 14 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
70%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.04/sh now → $2.15 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $27 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $27)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life (likely $1.55–$2.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 790 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.68/sh | +$3,412 cycle +$5,762 [+$2,778…+$4,459] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$1,281 cycle +$3,631 [-$127…+$1,920] · 71% credit | 76% surv 69% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.04/sh | +$216 cycle +$2,566 [-$883…+$704] · 42% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.33/sh | -$1,632 cycle +$718 [-$3,631…-$1,202] · 12% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| budget: banked $2,350 debit $1,632 (69% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$718 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $10,038/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $28.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.34/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 433 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $29 (overshoots $0.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.74/sh | +$3,711 cycle +$4,711 [+$3,259…+$5,380] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.35/sh | +$1,762 cycle +$2,762 [+$820…+$3,302] · 89% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.10/sh | +$505 cycle +$1,505 [-$249…+$1,746] · 67% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$155 cycle +$1,155 [-$994…+$1,646] · 53% credit | 78% surv 72% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.289 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $26,375
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $26.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 48/50 | $10,440 | $11,260 | 80% | 84% | +$3,944 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,319 (vs do-nothing $-7,056) |
| $26 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 39/50 | $10,384 | $14,894 | 76% | 81% | +$3,719 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,149 (vs do-nothing $-5,226) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 33/50 | $10,519 | $17,489 | 73% | 79% | +$3,457 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,415 (vs do-nothing $-3,960) |
| $26 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 47/50 | $10,434 | $11,664 | 72% | 79% | +$2,940 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,957 (vs do-nothing $-4,418) |
| $26 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.52 | 50/50 | $10,364 | $10,364 | 70% | 77% | +$2,430 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,725 (vs do-nothing $-2,650) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.27 | 41/50 | $10,414 | $14,104 | 69% | 77% | +$2,748 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,177 (vs do-nothing $-3,198) |
| $25 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 28/50 | $10,500 | $19,520 | 68% | 77% | +$3,061 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,435 (vs do-nothing $-2,940) |
| $25 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.46 | 36/50 | $10,512 | $16,252 | 66% | 75% | +$2,654 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,251 (vs do-nothing $-2,124) |
| $25 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.86 | 41/50 | $10,399 | $14,089 | 65% | 74% | +$2,140 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,596 (vs do-nothing $-779) |
| $24.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 24/50 | $10,620 | $21,280 | 64% | 74% | +$2,776 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,287 (vs do-nothing $-2,088) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.64 | 32/50 | $10,496 | $17,876 | 62% | 73% | +$2,380 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,063 (vs do-nothing $-1,312) |
| $24 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 21/50 | $10,553 | $22,442 | 59% | 72% | +$2,189 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,884 (vs do-nothing $-1,491) |
| $24 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.25 | 34/50 | $10,432 | $16,992 | 59% | 72% | +$1,831 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,055 (vs do-nothing +$680) |
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $24 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.84 | 28/50 | $10,304 | $19,324 | 59% | 72% | +$2,092 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,787 (vs do-nothing $-588) |
| $23.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 26/50 | $10,660 | $20,500 | 55% | 70% | +$1,886 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,375 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.55 | 18/50 | $10,462 | $23,582 | 54% | 69% | +$1,810 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,475 (vs do-nothing $-900) |
| $23 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 28/50 | $10,309 | $19,329 | 53% | 69% | +$1,512 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,195 (vs do-nothing +$1,820) |
| $23 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.28 | 23/50 | $10,488 | $21,558 | 51% | 68% | +$1,602 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,904 (vs do-nothing +$529) |
| $23 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 16/50 | $10,920 | $24,860 | 49% | 68% | +$1,728 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,007 (vs do-nothing $-368) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.