RIOTBBC @ $23.45 UNDERWATER $0.20 (0.8% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 9 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-31.
50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.98 (banked floor $20.88) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)
SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)
HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $30,601 | (ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $21,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,642/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $16,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,500/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$21,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0
ML VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $30,601
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.98 (probe: $23C 15d) still earns $18,900/mo (90% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$650
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$20.98 → $20.88
? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 63 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 58 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.87 (+32%) · daily UBB $28.54 · 1-wk expected move ±$4 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.98 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 50 × $26 14 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $26)
70%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.05/sh now → $2.16 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $27 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $27)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 804 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $28 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$27 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.70/sh | +$3,480 cycle +$5,830 [+$2,735…+$4,452] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$1,228 cycle +$3,578 [-$282…+$1,799] · 66% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$151 cycle +$2,501 [-$1,155…+$539] · 37% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.33/sh | -$1,675 cycle +$675 [-$3,811…-$1,320] · 11% credit | 81% surv 77% |
| budget: banked $2,350 debit $1,675 (71% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$675 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $10,079/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $28.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 443 simulated challenges: the $28 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $29 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.76/sh | +$3,780 cycle +$4,780 [+$3,317…+$5,607] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.34/sh | +$1,697 cycle +$2,697 [+$690…+$3,278] · 87% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.08/sh | +$413 cycle +$1,413 [-$453…+$1,692] · 63% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$32 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$98 cycle +$1,098 [-$1,115…+$1,663] · 51% credit | 78% surv 72% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.288 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $26,625
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $26.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 49/50 | $10,657 | $11,077 | 80% | 84% | +$4,198 | -$0 | 0.0% | $19,177 (vs do-nothing $-7,448) |
| $26 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 40/50 | $10,650 | $14,850 | 76% | 81% | +$3,707 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,065 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $25.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 34/50 | $10,710 | $17,430 | 72% | 79% | +$3,320 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,341 (vs do-nothing $-4,284) |
| $26 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.12 | 47/50 | $10,528 | $11,788 | 72% | 78% | +$2,519 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,019 (vs do-nothing $-4,606) |
| $25.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 41/50 | $10,578 | $14,358 | 69% | 77% | +$2,510 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,304 (vs do-nothing $-3,321) |
| $25 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 28/50 | $10,500 | $19,740 | 68% | 76% | +$2,946 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,545 (vs do-nothing $-3,080) |
| $25 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 36/50 | $10,584 | $16,464 | 66% | 75% | +$2,323 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,357 (vs do-nothing $-2,268) |
| $25 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.88 | 41/50 | $10,511 | $14,291 | 65% | 74% | +$2,124 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,723 (vs do-nothing $-902) |
| $24.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.18 | 24/50 | $10,620 | $21,540 | 64% | 74% | +$2,656 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,417 (vs do-nothing $-2,208) |
| $24.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 32/50 | $10,688 | $18,248 | 62% | 73% | +$2,218 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,249 (vs do-nothing $-1,376) |
| $24 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.38 | 21/50 | $10,868 | $23,048 | 59% | 72% | +$2,378 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,113 (vs do-nothing $-1,512) |
| $24 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.28 | 34/50 | $10,571 | $17,291 | 59% | 71% | +$1,847 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,237 (vs do-nothing +$612) |
| $24 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.87 | 29/50 | $10,846 | $19,666 | 59% | 71% | +$2,048 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,958 (vs do-nothing $-667) |
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $23.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.10 | 25/50 | $10,500 | $21,000 | 55% | 70% | +$1,842 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,625 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $23.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 18/50 | $10,868 | $24,308 | 54% | 70% | +$2,089 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,743 (vs do-nothing $-882) |
| $23 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.74 | 29/50 | $10,835 | $19,655 | 52% | 69% | +$1,606 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,481 (vs do-nothing +$1,856) |
| $23 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.34 | 23/50 | $10,764 | $22,104 | 51% | 68% | +$1,665 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,177 (vs do-nothing +$552) |
| $23 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.86 | 16/50 | $11,160 | $25,440 | 49% | 67% | +$1,839 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,241 (vs do-nothing $-384) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.