FORTRESS FIGHT: RIOT @ $21.40

BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.65 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RIOTBBC @ $21.40 UNDERWATER $2.25 (9.5% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

RIOT reports 2026-07-31 (Fri), in 3 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $20.65 (banked floor $20.54) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)

SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)

HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$30,601	(ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000
Normal income ref	$20,029/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,675/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$5,350	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,015/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$20,029/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $30,601

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $20.65 (probe: $21C 17d) still earns $18,706/mo (93% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$650

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,050

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$20.65 → $20.54

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
50x $30C 31 Jul 2026	U6241782	$0.21	$1,050	2026-07-23

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 47 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.79 (+44%) · daily UBB $25.63 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-31: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $20.65 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $21)

44%

Touch odds

100%

Per cycle

$7,250

Income / mo

$72,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$21	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.62/sh	+$3,118 cycle +$10,368	72% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$22	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.19/sh	+$960 cycle +$8,210	77% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.10/sh	+$493 cycle +$7,743	82% surv 77%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.73/sh	-$3,649 cycle +$3,601	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $7,250 debit $3,649 (50% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,601 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $6,709/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23.50)

85%

Touch odds

31%

Per cycle

$2,700

Income / mo

$27,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.35–$2.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 576 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $24 (overshoots $0.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.74/sh	+$3,683 cycle +$6,383 [+$1,641…+$4,175] · 89% credit	72% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$27	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.44/sh	+$2,222 cycle +$4,922 [-$935…+$2,566] · 65% credit	80% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$27	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.29/sh	+$1,426 cycle +$4,126 [-$1,875…+$1,736] · 51% credit	81% surv 75%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$25	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.20/sh	+$978 cycle +$3,678 [-$1,688…+$1,227] · 48% credit	76% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$29	14 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.44/sh	-$2,177 cycle +$523 [-$6,095…-$2,160]	86% surv 83%
budget: banked $2,700 debit $2,177 (81% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$523 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $7,965/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $26.50 7 Aug 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $26.50)

91%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,550

Income / mo

$4,650

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $1.83–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 426 simulated challenges: the $26 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $27 (overshoots $0.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$26	14 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.54/sh	+$2,721 cycle +$4,271 [+$1,932…+$4,472] · 98% credit	71% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$28	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.38/sh	+$1,912 cycle +$3,462 [+$586…+$3,762] · 85% credit	75% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$28	14 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.18/sh	+$925 cycle +$2,475 [-$22…+$2,339] · 75% credit	75% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$29	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$76 cycle +$1,626 [-$1,422…+$1,689] · 50% credit	77% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$30	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.30/sh	-$1,494 cycle +$56 [-$3,159…+$17] · 26% credit	80% surv 73%
budget: banked $1,550 debit $1,494 (96% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $14,558/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (29 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.287 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $10,150

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$25	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.25	41/50	$10,250	$12,842	92%	94%	+$8,235	-$0	0.0%	$7,239 (vs do-nothing $-2,911)
$24	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.42	24/50	$10,080	$17,568	89%	92%	+$8,492	-$0	0.0%	$8,854 (vs do-nothing $-1,296)
$23.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.54	19/50	$10,260	$19,188	85%	90%	+$8,112	-$0	0.0%	$9,352 (vs do-nothing $-798)
$24.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.69	49/50	$10,143	$10,431	81%	85%	+$5,230	-$0	0.0%	$8,827 (vs do-nothing $-1,323)
$23	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.73	14/50	$10,220	$20,588	79%	87%	+$7,620	-$0	0.0%	$9,828 (vs do-nothing $-322)
$24	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.83	41/50	$10,209	$12,801	77%	83%	+$4,991	-$0	0.0%	$9,617 (vs do-nothing $-533)
$24.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.20	48/50	$10,165	$10,741	76%	82%	+$4,800	-$0	0.0%	$11,302 (vs do-nothing +$1,152)
$23.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.96	35/50	$10,080	$14,400	73%	81%	+$4,475	-$0	0.0%	$10,150 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$24	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.31	44/50	$10,172	$11,900	73%	81%	+$4,365	-$0	0.0%	$11,690 (vs do-nothing +$1,540)
$22.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.92	11/50	$10,120	$21,352	72%	84%	+$6,896	-$0	0.0%	$10,106 (vs do-nothing $-44)
$23.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.30	44/50	$10,094	$11,822	70%	79%	+$3,266	-$0	0.0%	$11,646 (vs do-nothing +$1,496)
$23	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.14	30/50	$10,260	$16,020	69%	79%	+$4,269	-$0	0.0%	$10,690 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$23	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.62	36/50	$10,292	$14,324	67%	77%	+$3,753	-$0	0.0%	$12,526 (vs do-nothing +$2,376)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$23	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.94	42/50	$10,185	$12,489	66%	76%	+$3,178	-$0	0.0%	$14,266 (vs do-nothing +$4,116)
$22.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.37	25/50	$10,275	$17,475	65%	77%	+$4,106	-$0	0.0%	$11,175 (vs do-nothing +$1,025)
$22	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.13	9/50	$10,170	$21,978	63%	81%	+$6,171	-$0	0.0%	$10,303 (vs do-nothing +$153)
$22.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.94	30/50	$10,271	$16,031	63%	76%	+$3,921	-$0	0.0%	$13,090 (vs do-nothing +$2,940)
$22.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.15	38/50	$10,212	$13,668	63%	75%	+$3,051	-$0	0.0%	$14,672 (vs do-nothing +$4,522)
$22	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.70	20/50	$10,200	$18,840	60%	76%	+$4,160	-$0	0.0%	$11,630 (vs do-nothing +$1,480)
$22	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.29	35/50	$10,019	$14,339	59%	73%	+$2,573	-$0	0.0%	$14,805 (vs do-nothing +$4,655)
$22	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	27/50	$10,244	$16,868	59%	74%	+$3,617	-$0	0.0%	$13,363 (vs do-nothing +$3,213)
$21.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.61	31/50	$10,114	$15,586	56%	72%	+$2,693	-$0	0.0%	$15,265 (vs do-nothing +$5,115)
$21.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.27	25/50	$10,015	$17,215	55%	73%	+$2,934	-$0	0.0%	$13,425 (vs do-nothing +$3,275)
$21.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.85	19/50	$10,545	$19,473	55%	73%	+$3,589	-$0	0.0%	$11,841 (vs do-nothing +$1,691)
$21.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.36	8/50	$10,880	$22,976	54%	78%	+$5,703	-$0	0.0%	$10,470 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$21	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.78	29/50	$10,077	$16,125	53%	71%	+$2,290	-$0	0.0%	$15,428 (vs do-nothing +$5,278)
$21	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.52	23/50	$10,228	$18,004	51%	71%	+$2,748	-$0	0.0%	$13,738 (vs do-nothing +$3,588)
$21	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.14	16/50	$10,272	$20,064	49%	72%	+$3,240	-$0	0.0%	$12,038 (vs do-nothing +$1,888)
$21	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.45	7/50	$10,150	$22,534	44%	75%	+$3,806	-$0	0.0%	$10,493 (vs do-nothing +$343)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 12:24