FORTRESS FIGHT: RIOT @ $20.77

BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.22 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RIOTBBC @ $20.77 UNDERWATER $2.88 (12.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

RIOT reports 2026-08-05 (Wed), in 8 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-05.

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $23.65 | CC-SS: $21.22 (banked floor $21.12) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $3.213/sh)

SP: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $25.962/sh)

HP: $17 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $5.869/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$30,601	(ND $-16.88 + SW $23) x 5000
Normal income ref	$14,471/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,895/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-2,225	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,235/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$14,471/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.0 mo to earn back $0

ML VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $30,601

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $21.22 (probe: $21C 17d) still earns $14,471/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$650

Hole (after banked)

$1,575

was $2,225 · 29% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,050

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$21.22 → $21.12

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
50x $30C 31 Jul 2026	U6241782	$0.21	$1,050	2026-07-23

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 48 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 41 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $30.72 (+48%) · daily UBB $24.30 · 1-wk expected move ±$3 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-05: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $21.22 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 50 × $21.50 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $21.50)

60%

Touch odds

87%

Per cycle

$6,700

Income / mo

$11,824

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.36/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $2.28–$2.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 2,205 simulated challenges: the $22 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 17, at $22 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.05/sh	+$254 cycle +$6,954 [-$1,673…-$836] · 11% credit	67% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$22	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.00/sh	+$24 cycle +$6,724 [-$1,851…-$1,034] · 9% credit	68% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$22	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.00/sh	+$24 cycle +$6,724 [-$1,851…-$1,034] · 9% credit	68% surv 57%
SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$26	21 Aug 2026	16d left	-$1.31/sh	-$6,553 cycle +$147 [-$10,542…-$8,558]	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $6,700 debit $6,553 (98% used ≈ 2.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$147 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $3,382/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $23 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $23)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,200

Income / mo

$12,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 712 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $24 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$24	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.60/sh	+$3,025 cycle +$4,225 [-$62…+$3,308] · 74% credit	72% surv 63%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$23	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.21/sh	+$1,063 cycle +$2,263 [-$1,696…+$1,341] · 48% credit	67% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$26	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.12/sh	+$591 cycle +$1,791 [-$2,735…+$791] · 35% credit	77% surv 71%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$23	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$453 cycle +$1,653 [-$2,462…+$667] · 34% credit	68% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$27	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.14/sh	-$695 cycle +$505 [-$4,309…-$623] · 16% credit	80% surv 75%
budget: banked $1,200 debit $695 (58% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$505 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $7,872/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 50 × $24 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $24)

89%

Touch odds

23%

Per cycle

$750

Income / mo

$7,500

Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $1.30–$2.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $24 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $25 (overshoots $0.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (50 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$26	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.32/sh	+$1,594 cycle +$2,344 [-$1,516…+$2,484] · 62% credit	74% surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$24	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.23/sh	+$1,148 cycle +$1,898 [-$1,301…+$2,011] · 61% credit	67% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$24	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.11/sh	+$528 cycle +$1,278 [-$2,115…+$1,349] · 51% credit	68% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$27	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$202 cycle +$952 [-$2,925…+$1,082] · 44% credit	78% surv 72%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$28	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.08/sh	-$408 cycle +$342 [-$3,638…+$434] · 34% credit	79% surv 75%
budget: banked $750 debit $408 (54% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$342 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $8,806/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.260 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,858 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,333

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$24	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.15	49/50	$7,350	$7,512	89%	91%	+$2,813	-$0	0.0%	$1,422 (vs do-nothing $-1,911)
$23	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.24	31/50	$7,440	$10,518	82%	85%	+$1,435	-$0	0.0%	$2,403 (vs do-nothing $-930)
$23.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.54	45/50	$7,290	$8,100	77%	82%	+$1,142	-$0	0.0%	$3,333 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$22.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.21	35/50	$7,350	$9,780	76%	81%	$-2,371	-$0	0.0%	$2,178 (vs do-nothing $-1,155)
$23	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.67	36/50	$7,236	$9,504	74%	80%	+$1,134	-$0	0.0%	$3,801 (vs do-nothing +$468)
$23.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.17	50/50	$7,312	$7,312	72%	79%	+$1,396	-$0	0.0%	$6,483 (vs do-nothing +$3,150)
$22	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.46	16/50	$7,360	$12,868	70%	79%	+$1,071	-$0	0.0%	$3,205 (vs do-nothing $-128)
$23	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.01	41/50	$7,308	$8,766	70%	77%	+$472	-$0	0.0%	$5,260 (vs do-nothing +$1,927)
$22.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.82	30/50	$7,380	$10,620	70%	77%	+$1,116	-$0	0.0%	$4,173 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$23	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.32	44/50	$7,260	$8,232	69%	76%	+$335	-$0	0.0%	$6,765 (vs do-nothing +$3,432)
$22.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.12	37/50	$7,313	$9,419	67%	75%	+$176	-$0	0.0%	$5,479 (vs do-nothing +$2,146)
$22.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.44	41/50	$7,380	$8,838	66%	74%	+$125	-$0	0.0%	$7,023 (vs do-nothing +$3,690)
$22	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.01	24/50	$7,272	$11,484	65%	75%	+$1,145	-$0	0.0%	$4,461 (vs do-nothing +$1,128)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$22	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.26	33/50	$7,338	$10,092	64%	73%	+$1	-$0	0.0%	$5,709 (vs do-nothing +$2,376)
$21.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.55	14/50	$7,700	$13,532	64%	74%	+$50	-$0	0.0%	$3,347 (vs do-nothing +$14)
$22	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.65	36/50	$7,425	$9,693	63%	73%	+$278	-$0	0.0%	$7,329 (vs do-nothing +$3,996)
$21.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.11	22/50	$7,326	$11,862	61%	72%	+$513	-$0	0.0%	$4,587 (vs do-nothing +$1,254)
$21.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.78	33/50	$7,342	$10,096	60%	71%	+$10	-$0	0.0%	$7,425 (vs do-nothing +$4,092)
$21.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.34	31/50	$7,331	$10,409	60%	71%	$-583	-$0	0.0%	$5,813 (vs do-nothing +$2,480)
$21	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.00	29/50	$7,250	$10,652	57%	70%	+$55	-$0	0.0%	$6,919 (vs do-nothing +$3,585)
$21	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.64	26/50	$7,525	$11,413	57%	70%	+$252	-$0	0.0%	$5,612 (vs do-nothing +$2,278)
$21	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.29	19/50	$7,353	$12,375	56%	70%	+$274	-$0	0.0%	$4,333 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$21	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.71	11/50	$7,810	$14,128	56%	71%	$-369	-$0	0.0%	$3,274 (vs do-nothing $-59)
$20.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.08	28/50	$7,280	$10,844	54%	68%	$-456	-$0	0.0%	$5,619 (vs do-nothing +$2,286)
$20.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.77	24/50	$7,496	$11,708	53%	68%	$-198	-$0	0.0%	$4,548 (vs do-nothing +$1,215)
$20.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.55	16/50	$7,440	$12,948	51%	68%	+$329	-$0	0.0%	$3,791 (vs do-nothing +$458)
$20.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.89	9/50	$8,010	$14,652	48%	66%	$-884	-$0	0.0%	$2,997 (vs do-nothing $-336)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 21:35