FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB-LC115 @ $50.42

BE SS: $141.55  |  CC-SS: $149.38  |  6 contracts (600 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-23 03:21

RKLB-LC115 @ $50.42   UNDERWATER $91.13 (64.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RKLB reports 2026-11-09 (Mon), in 18 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-09.

6 contracts (600 sh)  |  BE SS: $141.55  |  CC-SS: $149.38  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $115 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $75.947/sh)
SP: $135 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $49.982/sh)
HP: $45 exp 2026-12-18 (entry $2.187/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$69,930(ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600
Normal income ref$3,216/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$1,058/mo
Unrealized P&L$-61,575fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,608/mo
HEDGE COVER
$1,058/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$3,216/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
5.0 mo to earn back $15,930
ML VELOCITY
21.7 mo to earn back $69,930
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $149.38 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $100C (15d, $12/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 11 (live) · RSI 38 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 26 · %B 12 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $74.06 (+47%) · daily UBB $82.41 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-09: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 6 contracts at $54 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,608/mo); it brings $1,890/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 6 × $52/8d for $3,262/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+12pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $55/8d (81% survival, $1,125/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $56,723 (356% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $142, recoverable in 17.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 6 contracts realizes $-61,599 and cuts bleed by $1,058/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (8d) · sell 6 × $54, 76% survival, $1,890/mo (E[net] $471/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆30 Oct 2026 · 8d6 × $5476%$1,890$471
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $504 with probability 62%; on the 38% touch you roll, paying $1,012 to close and taking $531 back from the best priced door (net cash $481) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 8d · E[net] $471/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 6 × $54 (50% normal), 76% survival, breach 24%, $1,890/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $55 rung (cover hedge) lifts survival to 81% (breach 24% → 19%) for $765/mo less (40% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.
RKLB  spot $50.42 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge5 × $5530 Oct8d9.1%81%hist 86%40%hist 31%+0pp$300$1,125-$765$46,889
Sell 5 × $55 9.1% OTM over spot $50.42 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.65 mid)
= $300 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,125/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $55)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $55.65)
83%
EV / mo
+$307
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+0pp
2% whole by 9mo vs 1% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.7/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-434/mo
median; plan ~$-295/mo after 68% keep · $-3,882 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.2 mo, measured ONLY among the 2% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$559
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$63 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 850 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $56 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$556 Nov 202611d left+$0.87/sh+$436
cycle +$736
[+$334…+$489] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$58,433 NOT
cap gain +$3,142
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$6013 Nov 202618d left+$0.34/sh+$168
cycle +$468
[-$73…+$169] · 63% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$56,297 NOT
cap gain +$5,278
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$576 Nov 202611d left+$0.20/sh+$99
cycle +$399
[-$64…+$122] · 57% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$57,941 NOT
cap gain +$3,634
Max even-money escape in the band~$6113 Nov 202618d left+$0.04/sh+$21
cycle +$321
[-$250…+$12] · 27% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$55,919 NOT
cap gain +$5,656
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$6313 Nov 202618d left-$0.42/sh-$209
cycle +$91
[-$536…-$229] · 6% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$55,099 NOT
cap gain +$6,476
budget: banked $300 debit $209 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$91 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,082/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,125/mo
vs 50% target ($1,608/mo)-30%
vs normal income ($3,216/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$69/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $55 is $94 below CC-SS $149.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$46,889
… as % of IC ($15,930)294.3%
… as % of ML ($69,930)67.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)14.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-51,335
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $55.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $54.45Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$54-55.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $55.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$55.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$300$-58,869+$2,706+$295
+2.5%$56.37 (1.1σ)$-387$-58,835+$2,740-$392
+5%$57.75 (1.3σ)$-1,075$-58,801+$2,774-$1,080
SS (= V-bounce)$141.55 (16.6σ)$-42,975$-60,861+$714-$22,205
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,575
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,953
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $55): -$46,889
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$4,937
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,448 (+$127 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-39,243 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,205, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $74.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,230, position total $-58,393 (+$3,182 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal6 × $5430 Oct8d7.1%76%hist 82%50%hist 44%+1pp$504$1,890—$56,723
Sell 6 × $54 7.1% OTM over spot $50.42 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.88 mid)
= $504 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,890/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $54)
76%
Breach risk
24%
POP (stays ≤ $54.88)
80%
EV / mo
+$506
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
2% whole by 9mo vs 2% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~4.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-159/mo
median; plan ~$-108/mo after 68% keep · $-1,433 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 2% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
38%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$508
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$64 @ 86% POP
85% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.38/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.86–$2.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,153 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $55 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (6 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$546 Nov 202611d left+$0.89/sh+$531
cycle +$1,035
[+$396…+$572] · 100% credit
67%
surv 52%
-$58,660 NOT
cap gain +$2,915
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5913 Nov 202618d left+$0.34/sh+$205
cycle +$709
[-$81…+$172] · 60% credit
77%
surv 71%
-$56,582 NOT
cap gain +$4,993
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$566 Nov 202611d left+$0.21/sh+$127
cycle +$631
[-$73…+$119] · 53% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$58,235 NOT
cap gain +$3,340
Max even-money escape in the band~$6013 Nov 202618d left+$0.05/sh+$29
cycle +$533
[-$288…-$13] · 24% credit
79%
surv 74%
-$56,233 NOT
cap gain +$5,342
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$6413 Nov 202618d left-$0.74/sh-$446
cycle +$58
[-$883…-$524] · 1% credit
86%
surv 85%
-$54,608 NOT
cap gain +$6,967
budget: banked $504 debit $446 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $942/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,890/mo
vs 50% target ($1,608/mo)+18%
vs normal income ($3,216/mo)59% covered
Net income (after hedge)$832/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $54 is $95 below CC-SS $149.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$56,723
… as % of IC ($15,930)356.1%
… as % of ML ($69,930)81.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)17.6 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)$-61,599
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $54.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $53.46Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$53-54.88
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $54.88
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$54.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$504$-59,191+$2,384+$498
+2.5%$55.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-306$-59,293+$2,282-$312
+5%$56.70 (1.1σ)$-1,116$-59,394+$2,181-$1,122
SS (= V-bounce)$141.55 (16.6σ)$-52,026$-65,758-$4,183-$27,102
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,575
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,953
− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $54): -$56,723
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,345 ($-4,770 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-39,243 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,102, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $74.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,532, position total $-60,696 (+$879 vs today)
▸100% normal6 × $5230 Oct8d3.1%63%hist 64%76%hist 68%+2pp$870$3,262+$1,372$57,557
Sell 6 × $52 3.1% OTM over spot $50.42 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.50 mid)
= $870 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,262/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $52)
63%
Breach risk
37%
POP (stays ≤ $53.50)
73%
EV / mo
+$640
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
4% whole by 9mo vs 2% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~9.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$126/mo
median; plan ~$86/mo after 68% keep · $1,131 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.3 mo, measured ONLY among the 4% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$104
Free roll-up
+$2/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$65 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $2.08–$2.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,839 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $53 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (6 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$526 Nov 202611d left+$0.91/sh+$545
cycle +$1,415
[+$383…+$492] · 100% credit
67%
surv 53%
-$59,331 NOT
cap gain +$2,244
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5613 Nov 202618d left+$0.48/sh+$287
cycle +$1,157
[-$46…+$164] · 67% credit
75%
surv 68%
-$57,709 NOT
cap gain +$3,866
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$546 Nov 202611d left+$0.24/sh+$142
cycle +$1,012
[-$100…+$51] · 42% credit
72%
surv 62%
-$58,904 NOT
cap gain +$2,671
Max even-money escape in the band~$5813 Nov 202618d left+$0.06/sh+$36
cycle +$906
[-$347…-$102] · 13% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$56,910 NOT
cap gain +$4,665
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$6513 Nov 202618d left-$1.07/sh-$641
cycle +$229
[-$1,239…-$855]
91%
surv 90%
-$53,912 NOT
cap gain +$7,663
budget: banked $870 debit $641 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$229 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $555/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$3,262/mo
vs 50% target ($1,608/mo)+103%
vs normal income ($3,216/mo)101% covered
Net income (after hedge)$2,205/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $52 is $97 below CC-SS $149.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$57,557
… as % of IC ($15,930)361.3%
… as % of ML ($69,930)82.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)17.9 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)$-61,605
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $53.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$51-53.50
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $53.50
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$52.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$870$-59,875+$1,700+$864
+2.5%$53.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$90$-59,973+$1,602+$84
+5%$54.60 (≤1σ, normal week)$-690$-60,070+$1,504-$696
SS (= V-bounce)$141.55 (16.6σ)$-52,860$-66,592-$5,017-$27,936
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,575
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$51,953
− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $52): -$57,557
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,179 ($-5,604 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-39,243 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,936, the opportunity cost of earning $3,262/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $74.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,366, position total $-61,530 (+$45 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RKLB are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.875 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$51,953 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-39,243

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$548d30 Oct 2026$0.846/6$504$1,890$83276%hist 82%50%hist 44%80%+$506-$56,723356.1%17.6mo$-66,345 (vs do-nothing $-27,102)
$5622d13 Nov 2026$1.986/6$1,188$1,620$56274%hist 82%57%hist 44%79%+$431-$54,839344.3%17.1mo$-64,461 (vs do-nothing $-25,218)
$5415d6 Nov 2026$1.546/6$924$1,848$79070%hist 82%62%hist 56%77%+$390-$56,303353.4%17.5mo$-65,925 (vs do-nothing $-26,682)
$5522d13 Nov 2026$2.286/6$1,368$1,865$80870%hist 82%63%hist 56%77%+$442-$55,259346.9%17.2mo$-64,881 (vs do-nothing $-25,638)
$538d30 Oct 2026$1.104/6$440$1,650$59670%hist 64%62%hist 56%76%+$369-$38,111239.2%11.9mo$-57,607 (vs do-nothing $-18,364)
$5422d13 Nov 2026$2.405/6$1,200$1,636$58067%hist 64%70%hist 68%75%+$300-$46,489291.8%14.5mo$-61,048 (vs do-nothing $-21,805)
$5315d6 Nov 2026$1.865/6$930$1,860$80466%hist 64%72%hist 68%74%+$347-$47,259296.7%14.7mo$-61,818 (vs do-nothing $-22,575)
$5322d13 Nov 2026$2.964/6$1,184$1,615$56164%hist 64%78%hist 68%73%+$309-$37,367234.6%11.6mo$-56,863 (vs do-nothing $-17,620)
$528d30 Oct 2026$1.453/6$435$1,631$57963%hist 64%76%hist 68%73%+$320-$28,779180.7%8.9mo$-53,211 (vs do-nothing $-13,968)
$5215d6 Nov 2026$2.244/6$896$1,792$73861%hist 64%82%hist 78%72%+$299-$38,055238.9%11.8mo$-57,551 (vs do-nothing $-18,308)
$5222d13 Nov 2026$3.304/6$1,320$1,800$74660%hist 64%86%hist 78%72%+$294-$37,631236.2%11.7mo$-57,127 (vs do-nothing $-17,884)
$518d30 Oct 2026$1.863/6$558$2,092$1,04156%hist 68%91%hist 90%69%+$337-$28,956181.8%9.0mo$-53,388 (vs do-nothing $-14,145)
$5122d13 Nov 2026$3.704/6$1,480$2,018$96456%hist 68%95%hist 90%70%+$294-$37,871237.7%11.8mo$-57,367 (vs do-nothing $-18,124)
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$5115d6 Nov 2026$2.664/6$1,064$2,128$1,07456%hist 68%93%hist 90%69%+$305-$38,287240.3%11.9mo$-57,783 (vs do-nothing $-18,540)
$5022d13 Nov 2026$4.253/6$1,275$1,739$68752%hist 68%100%hist 90%68%+$263-$28,539179.1%8.9mo$-52,971 (vs do-nothing $-13,728)
$5015d6 Nov 2026$3.103/6$930$1,860$80851%hist 68%100%hist 90%67%+$208-$28,884181.3%9.0mo$-53,316 (vs do-nothing $-14,073)
$508d30 Oct 2026$2.342/6$468$1,755$70549%100%hist 90%66%+$221-$19,408121.8%6.0mo$-48,777 (vs do-nothing $-9,534)
$49.508d30 Oct 2026$2.602/6$520$1,950$90045%100%hist 90%64%+$209-$19,456122.1%6.0mo$-48,825 (vs do-nothing $-9,582)
64 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$10015d6 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$12$-1,04699+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$12-$29,621185.9%9.2mo$-39,243 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9015d6 Nov 2026$0.026/6$12$24$-1,03499+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$24-$35,615223.6%11.1mo$-45,237 (vs do-nothing $-5,994)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$758d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$22$-1,03599+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$22-$44,621280.1%13.9mo$-54,243 (vs do-nothing $-15,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$708d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$22$-1,03599+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$22-$47,621298.9%14.8mo$-57,243 (vs do-nothing $-18,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10022d13 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$8$-1,05099+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$5-$29,621185.9%9.2mo$-39,243 (vs do-nothing +$0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8315d6 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$12$-1,04699+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$6-$39,821250.0%12.4mo$-49,443 (vs do-nothing $-10,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7315d6 Nov 2026$0.056/6$30$60$-99899%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$55-$45,797287.5%14.2mo$-55,419 (vs do-nothing $-16,176)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8015d6 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$12$-1,04699%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$4-$41,621261.3%12.9mo$-51,243 (vs do-nothing $-12,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8522d13 Nov 2026$0.046/6$24$33$-1,02599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$21-$38,603242.3%12.0mo$-48,225 (vs do-nothing $-8,982)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$688d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$22$-1,03599%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$3-$48,821306.5%15.2mo$-58,443 (vs do-nothing $-19,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8322d13 Nov 2026$0.056/6$30$41$-1,01799%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$24-$39,797249.8%12.4mo$-49,419 (vs do-nothing $-10,176)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7015d6 Nov 2026$0.076/6$42$84$-97499%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$71-$47,585298.7%14.8mo$-57,207 (vs do-nothing $-17,964)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8222d13 Nov 2026$0.066/6$36$49$-1,00999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$30-$40,391253.6%12.6mo$-50,013 (vs do-nothing $-10,770)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7415d6 Nov 2026$0.036/6$18$36$-1,02299%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$17-$45,209283.8%14.1mo$-54,831 (vs do-nothing $-15,588)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$668d30 Oct 2026$0.036/6$18$67$-99099%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$40-$50,009313.9%15.6mo$-59,631 (vs do-nothing $-20,388)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7215d6 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$12$-1,04699%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%$-11-$46,421291.4%14.4mo$-56,043 (vs do-nothing $-16,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8022d13 Nov 2026$0.116/6$66$90$-96898%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$63-$41,561260.9%12.9mo$-51,183 (vs do-nothing $-11,940)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$658d30 Oct 2026$0.036/6$18$67$-99098%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$34-$50,609317.7%15.7mo$-60,231 (vs do-nothing $-20,988)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7822d13 Nov 2026$0.106/6$60$82$-97698%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$44-$42,767268.5%13.3mo$-52,389 (vs do-nothing $-13,146)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$648d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$22$-1,03598%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%$-21-$51,221321.5%15.9mo$-60,843 (vs do-nothing $-21,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7722d13 Nov 2026$0.126/6$72$98$-96098%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$54-$43,355272.2%13.5mo$-52,977 (vs do-nothing $-13,734)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6915d6 Nov 2026$0.076/6$42$84$-97498%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$43-$48,185302.5%15.0mo$-57,807 (vs do-nothing $-18,564)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6715d6 Nov 2026$0.116/6$66$132$-92698%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$95-$49,361309.9%15.3mo$-58,983 (vs do-nothing $-19,740)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7622d13 Nov 2026$0.126/6$72$98$-96097%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$47-$43,955275.9%13.7mo$-53,577 (vs do-nothing $-14,334)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$638d30 Oct 2026$0.066/6$36$135$-92397%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$78-$51,791325.1%16.1mo$-61,413 (vs do-nothing $-22,170)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7522d13 Nov 2026$0.176/6$102$139$-91997%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$79-$44,525279.5%13.8mo$-54,147 (vs do-nothing $-14,904)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6615d6 Nov 2026$0.156/6$90$180$-87897%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$128-$49,937313.5%15.5mo$-59,559 (vs do-nothing $-20,316)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7422d13 Nov 2026$0.146/6$84$115$-94397%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$45-$45,143283.4%14.0mo$-54,765 (vs do-nothing $-15,522)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$628d30 Oct 2026$0.076/6$42$158$-90097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$79-$52,385328.8%16.3mo$-62,007 (vs do-nothing $-22,764)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7322d13 Nov 2026$0.216/6$126$172$-88696%hist 95%8%hist 4%97%+$90-$45,701286.9%14.2mo$-55,323 (vs do-nothing $-16,080)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6515d6 Nov 2026$0.176/6$102$204$-85496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$132-$50,525317.2%15.7mo$-60,147 (vs do-nothing $-20,904)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7222d13 Nov 2026$0.246/6$144$196$-86296%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$102-$46,283290.5%14.4mo$-55,905 (vs do-nothing $-16,662)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$618d30 Oct 2026$0.106/6$60$225$-83396%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$115-$52,967332.5%16.5mo$-62,589 (vs do-nothing $-23,346)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7122d13 Nov 2026$0.256/6$150$205$-85395%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$94-$46,877294.3%14.6mo$-56,499 (vs do-nothing $-17,256)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6415d6 Nov 2026$0.156/6$90$180$-87895%hist 95%10%hist 4%96%+$81-$51,137321.0%15.9mo$-60,759 (vs do-nothing $-21,516)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7022d13 Nov 2026$0.306/6$180$245$-81295%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$117-$47,447297.8%14.8mo$-57,069 (vs do-nothing $-17,826)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$608d30 Oct 2026$0.146/6$84$315$-74395%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$157-$53,543336.1%16.6mo$-63,165 (vs do-nothing $-23,922)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6922d13 Nov 2026$0.336/6$198$270$-78894%hist 95%12%hist 14%95%+$121-$48,029301.5%14.9mo$-57,651 (vs do-nothing $-18,408)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6315d6 Nov 2026$0.206/6$120$240$-81894%hist 95%12%hist 14%95%+$106-$51,707324.6%16.1mo$-61,329 (vs do-nothing $-22,086)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6822d13 Nov 2026$0.406/6$240$327$-73194%hist 95%14%hist 14%94%+$154-$48,587305.0%15.1mo$-58,209 (vs do-nothing $-18,966)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6522d13 Nov 2026$0.576/6$342$466$-59293%hist 95%14%hist 14%94%+$322-$50,285315.7%15.6mo$-59,907 (vs do-nothing $-20,664)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$598d30 Oct 2026$0.196/6$114$428$-63093%hist 95%14%hist 14%93%+$199-$54,113339.7%16.8mo$-63,735 (vs do-nothing $-24,492)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6215d6 Nov 2026$0.316/6$186$372$-68693%hist 95%15%hist 14%93%+$191-$52,241327.9%16.2mo$-61,863 (vs do-nothing $-22,620)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6722d13 Nov 2026$0.426/6$252$344$-71493%hist 95%15%hist 14%93%+$142-$49,175308.7%15.3mo$-58,797 (vs do-nothing $-19,554)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6622d13 Nov 2026$0.516/6$306$417$-64192%hist 95%17%hist 14%92%+$182-$49,721312.1%15.5mo$-59,343 (vs do-nothing $-20,100)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6115d6 Nov 2026$0.356/6$210$420$-63891%hist 95%19%hist 14%92%+$157-$52,817331.6%16.4mo$-62,439 (vs do-nothing $-23,196)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$588d30 Oct 2026$0.236/6$138$518$-54091%hist 95%19%hist 14%92%+$187-$54,689343.3%17.0mo$-64,311 (vs do-nothing $-25,068)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6422d13 Nov 2026$0.666/6$396$540$-51890%hist 86%22%hist 24%91%+$217-$50,831319.1%15.8mo$-60,453 (vs do-nothing $-21,210)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6015d6 Nov 2026$0.446/6$264$528$-53089%hist 86%22%hist 24%90%+$206-$53,363335.0%16.6mo$-62,985 (vs do-nothing $-23,742)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6322d13 Nov 2026$0.746/6$444$605$-45288%hist 86%25%hist 24%89%+$226-$51,383322.6%16.0mo$-61,005 (vs do-nothing $-21,762)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$578d30 Oct 2026$0.336/6$198$742$-31588%hist 86%24%hist 24%89%+$264-$55,229346.7%17.2mo$-64,851 (vs do-nothing $-25,608)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5915d6 Nov 2026$0.516/6$306$612$-44687%hist 86%27%hist 24%88%+$188-$53,921338.5%16.8mo$-63,543 (vs do-nothing $-24,300)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6222d13 Nov 2026$0.866/6$516$704$-35487%hist 86%28%hist 24%88%+$257-$51,911325.9%16.1mo$-61,533 (vs do-nothing $-22,290)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6122d13 Nov 2026$1.006/6$600$818$-24085%hist 86%31%hist 31%87%+$293-$52,427329.1%16.3mo$-62,049 (vs do-nothing $-22,806)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$568d30 Oct 2026$0.456/6$270$1,012$-4585%hist 86%31%hist 31%87%+$324-$55,757350.0%17.3mo$-65,379 (vs do-nothing $-26,136)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5815d6 Nov 2026$0.666/6$396$792$-26684%hist 86%32%hist 31%86%+$231-$54,431341.7%16.9mo$-64,053 (vs do-nothing $-24,810)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6022d13 Nov 2026$1.146/6$684$933$-12583%hist 86%35%hist 31%86%+$314-$52,943332.3%16.5mo$-62,565 (vs do-nothing $-23,322)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5715d6 Nov 2026$0.836/6$498$996$-6282%hist 86%39%hist 31%84%+$277-$54,929344.8%17.1mo$-64,551 (vs do-nothing $-25,308)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5922d13 Nov 2026$1.306/6$780$1,064$681%hist 86%40%hist 31%84%+$334-$53,447335.5%16.6mo$-63,069 (vs do-nothing $-23,826)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$558d30 Oct 2026$0.606/6$360$1,350$29281%hist 86%40%hist 31%83%+$368-$56,267353.2%17.5mo$-65,889 (vs do-nothing $-26,646)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5822d13 Nov 2026$1.506/6$900$1,227$16979%hist 82%45%hist 41%83%+$368-$53,927338.5%16.8mo$-63,549 (vs do-nothing $-24,306)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5615d6 Nov 2026$1.006/6$600$1,200$14278%hist 82%46%hist 41%82%+$283-$55,427347.9%17.2mo$-65,049 (vs do-nothing $-25,806)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5722d13 Nov 2026$1.736/6$1,038$1,415$35876%hist 82%50%hist 44%81%+$404-$54,389341.4%16.9mo$-64,011 (vs do-nothing $-24,768)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5515d6 Nov 2026$1.256/6$750$1,500$44275%hist 82%53%hist 44%79%+$339-$55,877350.8%17.4mo$-65,499 (vs do-nothing $-26,256)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-23 03:21