FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB-LC115 @ $99.19

SS: $141.55 | 6 contracts (600 sh) | 2026-06-23 01:53 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RKLB-LC115 @ $99.19 UNDERWATER $42.37 (29.9% below SS)

6 contracts (600 sh) | SS: $141.55 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: U18827291

LC: $115 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $75.947/sh)

SP: $135 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $49.982/sh)

HP: $45 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.597/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$69,930	(ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600
Normal income ref	$5,536/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$190/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-30,006	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,768/mo

HEDGE COVER
$190/mo

NORMAL TARGET
$5,536/mo (95% ROI on ML)

IC VELOCITY
2.9 mo to earn back $15,930

ML VELOCITY
12.6 mo to earn back $69,930

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 21 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $138.27 (+39%) · daily UBB $149.15 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK

Sell 2 × $103 2 Jul 2026 (9d, $4.55 bid / $4.67 mid)

POP (stays ≤ $107.67)

71%

Assignment risk

40%

EV / cycle

+$233

EV / mo

+$776

Gross FIGHT income	$3,033/mo
vs 50% target ($2,768/mo)	+10%
vs normal target ($5,536/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,422/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$6,800
… as % of IC ($15,930)	42.7%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	9.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-10,027
… cuts bleed by	-$63/mo

✓ Smallest cap give-up among candidates that hit the 50% income floor with POP ≥ 60%, EV ≥ $0/mo, Survival ≥ 50%. IV 94% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~40% · flat exit -$89 net · free roll-up ≈ +$3/wk

Challenge odds

40%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$89

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 10 Jul 2026)

$137 @ 95%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.14/sh (~25% of the $4.55 collected) or spot ≥ $107.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $149.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $102-107.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $107.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$103.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$910	$-26,378	+$3,628	+$746
+2.5%	$105.57 (≤1σ, normal week)	$395	$-25,280	+$4,726	+$231
+5%	$108.15 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-120	$-24,182	+$5,824	-$284
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (2.9σ)	$-6,800	$-13,361	+$16,645	-$5,254

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.06/sh now → $4.99 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	10 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.22/sh	+$444 cycle +$1,354	65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$107	10 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.35/sh	+$70 cycle +$980	70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$119	31 Jul 2026	34d left	+$0.81/sh	+$162 cycle +$1,072	75%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$137	10 Jul 2026	12d left	-$4.26/sh	-$853 cycle +$57	95%
budget: banked $910 debit $853 (94% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$57 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $365/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-FIGHT

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($103) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 71% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 4 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 2 calls lose. Re-arm capacity: a challenge enriches the 4 free contracts; near-ATM FIGHT premium at the challenged spot ≈ $1,803/ct/mo (up to $7,213/mo), at the price of fresh cap give-up on a continued rally. Re-run the tool to re-size.

📊 Spectrum — cap give-up vs POP frontier

Non-dominated candidates, cheapest mortgage first. Every step down buys more POP for more cap give-up; the $ / POP pt column prices the upgrade from 🎯 to that row (extra cap per POP point gained). 💎 marks the cheapest rate with a gain of at least 3pp. The strike, tenor and contract count are consequences of the trade-off, not the dial itself.

Cap @ SS	%IC	Rec (mo)	POP	$ / POP pt	EV/mo	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Premium	Income/mo	Net/mo	Marker
-$6,800	42.7%	1.2	71%	·	+$776	2 × $103 / 9d	MBB-UBB	2 Jul 2026	$4.55/4.67	$3,033	$3,422	🎯 PRIMARY
-$9,075	57.0%	1.6	72%	$1,912	+$678	3 × $106 / 17d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	$5.30/5.53	$2,806	$3,050
-$9,180	57.6%	1.7	78%	$350	+$1,022	3 × $108 / 9d	MBB-UBB	2 Jul 2026	$2.95/3.10	$2,950	$3,194	💎 BEST VALUE
-$11,320	71.1%	2.0	82%	$428	+$1,209	4 × $111 / 9d	MBB-UBB	2 Jul 2026	$2.25/2.36	$3,000	$3,099
-$12,925	81.1%	2.3	85%	$440	+$1,291	5 × $114 / 9d	MBB-UBB	2 Jul 2026	$1.70/1.75	$2,833	$2,788
-$14,460	90.8%	2.6	87%	$476	+$1,462	6 × $116 / 9d	MBB-UBB	2 Jul 2026	$1.45/1.55	$2,900	$2,710	🏰 MAX POP

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💎 BEST VALUE vs 🏰 MAX POP

	🎯 PRIMARY	💎 BEST VALUE	🏰 MAX POP
Trade	2 × $103 / 9d	3 × $108 / 9d	6 × $116 / 9d
POP this week (from today)	71%	78%	87%
Challenge means spot ≥	$103 (+3.8%)	$108 (+8.9%)	$116 (+17.0%)
Odds of that challenge	~40%	~28%	~15%
Premium banked	$910	$885	$870
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$89	-$686	-$2,504
Free roll-up speed	+$3/wk	+$3/wk	+$3/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$137 @ 95% 10 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge	$140 @ 87% 24 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge	$136 @ 77% 24 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$89	-$686	-$2,504
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$6,800 (42.7% IC)	-$9,180 (57.6% IC)	-$14,460 (90.8% IC)

Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.

🎚 Scale up — contracts dial at $103 2 Jul 2026 · up to 6 ct = $9,100/mo income, -$20,400 cap · POP flat at 71%

POP stays 71% at every row; contract count never buys POP. Income, EV and cap give-up scale linearly.

Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC	EV/mo
2/6	$3,033	$3,422	-$6,800	42.7%	+$776
3/6	$4,550	$4,794	-$10,200	64.0%	+$1,165
4/6	$6,067	$6,166	-$13,600	85.4%	+$1,553
5/6	$7,583	$7,538	-$17,000	106.7%	+$1,941
6/6	$9,100	$8,910	-$20,400	128.1%	+$2,329

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 2 contracts at $103 / 9d. Of every trade that clears the 50% income floor ($2,768/mo) with POP ≥ 60% and positive variance edge, this one mortgages the least recovery: $6,800 (42.7% of IC) if the stock V-bounces to SS.

💎 Best value upgrade: 3 × $108/9d buys +7pp POP (71% → 78%) for $2,380 more cap, $350 per POP point, the cheapest rate on the frontier.

If you want maximum POP: the frontier tops out at 6 × $116/9d with +16pp POP, paid for with $7,660 more cap give-up (+48.1pp of IC, $476 per POP point) on a V-bounce.

Downside anchor: primary risks 42.7% of IC on a full V-bounce to SS, recoverable in 1.2 months of normal income. Surgical close on the 2 contracts realizes $-10,027 and cuts bleed by $63/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $141.55 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-30,006

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,537

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $103): -$6,800

+ Conservative CC premium (4 × $133): +$328

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,361 (+$16,645 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,107 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,254, the opportunity cost of earning $3,033/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.27 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,144, position total $-13,447 (+$16,559 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 82 eligible), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear the 50% income floor. Sorted by cap give-up (ascending). Primary 🎯 and frontier ◆ rows below; everything they dominate is in the collapsible pane.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,537 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,107

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	POP (mid)	Survival	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
🎯 $103	9d	2 Jul 2026	$4.55	2/6	$3,033	$3,422	71%	60%	+$776	-$6,800	42.7%	$-13,361 (vs do-nothing $-5,254)
◆ $106	17d	10 Jul 2026	$5.30	3/6	$2,806	$3,050	72%	63%	+$678	-$9,075	57.0%	$-14,863 (vs do-nothing $-6,756)
◆ $108	9d	2 Jul 2026	$2.95	3/6	$2,950	$3,194	78%	72%	+$1,022	-$9,180	57.6%	$-14,968 (vs do-nothing $-6,861)
◆ $111	9d	2 Jul 2026	$2.25	4/6	$3,000	$3,099	82%	78%	+$1,209	-$11,320	71.1%	$-16,335 (vs do-nothing $-8,228)
◆ $114	9d	2 Jul 2026	$1.70	5/6	$2,833	$2,788	85%	82%	+$1,291	-$12,925	81.1%	$-17,167 (vs do-nothing $-9,060)
◆ $116	9d	2 Jul 2026	$1.45	6/6	$2,900	$2,710	87%	85%	+$1,462	-$14,460	90.8%	$-17,929 (vs do-nothing $-9,822)

Show 76 dominated candidates (for each one, a frontier row above is cheaper on cap AND equal-or-better on POP; unlikely sells)

Showing the 60 lowest-cap dominated rows of 76.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	POP (mid)	Survival	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$102	9d	2 Jul 2026	$4.75	2/6	$3,167	$3,555	70%	57%	+$658	-$6,960	43.7%	$-13,521 (vs do-nothing $-5,414)
$101	9d	2 Jul 2026	$5.35	2/6	$3,567	$3,955	68%	55%	+$786	-$7,040	44.2%	$-13,601 (vs do-nothing $-5,494)
$100	9d	2 Jul 2026	$5.75	2/6	$3,833	$4,222	67%	52%	+$759	-$7,160	44.9%	$-13,721 (vs do-nothing $-5,614)
$105	17d	10 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/6	$2,965	$3,208	71%	61%	+$668	-$9,285	58.3%	$-15,073 (vs do-nothing $-6,966)
$103	24d	17 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/6	$2,831	$3,075	68%	56%	+$493	-$9,300	58.4%	$-15,088 (vs do-nothing $-6,981)
$107	9d	2 Jul 2026	$3.05	3/6	$3,050	$3,294	76%	70%	+$883	-$9,450	59.3%	$-15,238 (vs do-nothing $-7,131)
$102	24d	17 Jul 2026	$8.00	3/6	$3,000	$3,244	68%	55%	+$515	-$9,465	59.4%	$-15,253 (vs do-nothing $-7,146)
$104	17d	10 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/6	$2,965	$3,208	70%	59%	+$488	-$9,585	60.2%	$-15,373 (vs do-nothing $-7,266)
$101	24d	17 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/6	$3,150	$3,394	67%	53%	+$511	-$9,645	60.5%	$-15,433 (vs do-nothing $-7,326)
$106	9d	2 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/6	$3,350	$3,594	75%	67%	+$919	-$9,660	60.6%	$-15,448 (vs do-nothing $-7,341)
$103	17d	10 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/6	$3,176	$3,420	69%	58%	+$508	-$9,765	61.3%	$-15,553 (vs do-nothing $-7,446)
$100	24d	17 Jul 2026	$8.95	3/6	$3,356	$3,600	66%	51%	+$556	-$9,780	61.4%	$-15,568 (vs do-nothing $-7,461)
$105	9d	2 Jul 2026	$3.85	3/6	$3,850	$4,094	74%	65%	+$1,129	-$9,810	61.6%	$-15,598 (vs do-nothing $-7,491)
$102	17d	10 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/6	$3,574	$3,817	68%	56%	+$702	-$9,840	61.8%	$-15,628 (vs do-nothing $-7,521)
$104	9d	2 Jul 2026	$4.00	3/6	$4,000	$4,244	72%	63%	+$962	-$10,065	63.2%	$-15,853 (vs do-nothing $-7,746)
$101	17d	10 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/6	$3,574	$3,817	67%	54%	+$486	-$10,140	63.7%	$-15,928 (vs do-nothing $-7,821)
$100	17d	10 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/6	$3,944	$4,188	66%	52%	+$628	-$10,230	64.2%	$-16,018 (vs do-nothing $-7,911)
$109	24d	17 Jul 2026	$5.55	4/6	$2,775	$2,874	73%	66%	+$638	-$10,800	67.8%	$-15,815 (vs do-nothing $-7,708)
$108	24d	17 Jul 2026	$5.85	4/6	$2,925	$3,024	73%	64%	+$646	-$11,080	69.6%	$-16,095 (vs do-nothing $-7,988)
$105	38d	31 Jul 2026	$8.85	4/6	$2,795	$2,894	68%	58%	+$349	-$11,080	69.6%	$-16,095 (vs do-nothing $-7,988)
$106	31d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	4/6	$2,865	$2,964	70%	60%	+$403	-$11,260	70.7%	$-16,275 (vs do-nothing $-8,168)
$107	24d	17 Jul 2026	$6.15	4/6	$3,075	$3,174	72%	63%	+$646	-$11,360	71.3%	$-16,375 (vs do-nothing $-8,268)
$104	38d	31 Jul 2026	$9.15	4/6	$2,889	$2,989	68%	56%	+$330	-$11,360	71.3%	$-16,375 (vs do-nothing $-8,268)
$109	17d	10 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/6	$2,894	$2,993	75%	68%	+$650	-$11,380	71.4%	$-16,395 (vs do-nothing $-8,288)
$103	38d	31 Jul 2026	$9.65	4/6	$3,047	$3,146	67%	55%	+$370	-$11,560	72.6%	$-16,575 (vs do-nothing $-8,468)
$108	17d	10 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/6	$3,247	$3,346	74%	67%	+$818	-$11,580	72.7%	$-16,595 (vs do-nothing $-8,488)
$105	31d	24 Jul 2026	$7.60	4/6	$2,942	$3,041	69%	58%	+$346	-$11,580	72.7%	$-16,595 (vs do-nothing $-8,488)
$106	24d	17 Jul 2026	$6.50	4/6	$3,250	$3,349	71%	61%	+$662	-$11,620	72.9%	$-16,635 (vs do-nothing $-8,528)
$110	9d	2 Jul 2026	$2.43	4/6	$3,240	$3,339	80%	76%	+$1,217	-$11,648	73.1%	$-16,663 (vs do-nothing $-8,556)
$104	31d	24 Jul 2026	$7.95	4/6	$3,077	$3,176	68%	57%	+$341	-$11,840	74.3%	$-16,855 (vs do-nothing $-8,748)
$102	38d	31 Jul 2026	$9.95	4/6	$3,142	$3,241	67%	54%	+$341	-$11,840	74.3%	$-16,855 (vs do-nothing $-8,748)
$105	24d	17 Jul 2026	$6.85	4/6	$3,425	$3,524	70%	60%	+$670	-$11,880	74.6%	$-16,895 (vs do-nothing $-8,788)
$109	9d	2 Jul 2026	$2.65	4/6	$3,533	$3,632	79%	74%	+$1,251	-$11,960	75.1%	$-16,975 (vs do-nothing $-8,868)
$107	17d	10 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/6	$3,282	$3,381	73%	65%	+$656	-$11,960	75.1%	$-16,975 (vs do-nothing $-8,868)
$101	38d	31 Jul 2026	$10.45	4/6	$3,300	$3,399	66%	52%	+$372	-$12,040	75.6%	$-17,055 (vs do-nothing $-8,948)
$113	24d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	5/6	$2,781	$2,736	77%	71%	+$724	-$12,050	75.6%	$-16,292 (vs do-nothing $-8,185)
$104	24d	17 Jul 2026	$7.25	4/6	$3,625	$3,724	69%	58%	+$694	-$12,120	76.1%	$-17,135 (vs do-nothing $-9,028)
$103	31d	24 Jul 2026	$8.20	4/6	$3,174	$3,273	67%	56%	+$291	-$12,140	76.2%	$-17,155 (vs do-nothing $-9,048)
$110	38d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	5/6	$2,842	$2,796	72%	63%	+$418	-$12,175	76.4%	$-16,417 (vs do-nothing $-8,310)
$102	31d	24 Jul 2026	$8.90	4/6	$3,445	$3,544	67%	54%	+$409	-$12,260	77.0%	$-17,275 (vs do-nothing $-9,168)
$111	31d	24 Jul 2026	$5.90	5/6	$2,855	$2,809	73%	66%	+$508	-$12,325	77.4%	$-16,567 (vs do-nothing $-8,460)
$115	38d	31 Jul 2026	$5.95	6/6	$2,818	$2,628	75%	69%	+$527	-$12,360	77.6%	$-15,829 (vs do-nothing $-7,722)
$100	38d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	4/6	$3,347	$3,446	65%	51%	+$287	-$12,380	77.7%	$-17,395 (vs do-nothing $-9,288)
$112	24d	17 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/6	$2,938	$2,892	76%	70%	+$740	-$12,425	78.0%	$-16,667 (vs do-nothing $-8,560)
$101	31d	24 Jul 2026	$9.30	4/6	$3,600	$3,699	67%	53%	+$404	-$12,500	78.5%	$-17,515 (vs do-nothing $-9,408)
$109	38d	31 Jul 2026	$7.40	5/6	$2,921	$2,875	71%	62%	+$380	-$12,575	78.9%	$-16,817 (vs do-nothing $-8,710)
$110	31d	24 Jul 2026	$6.20	5/6	$3,000	$2,954	73%	65%	+$521	-$12,675	79.6%	$-16,917 (vs do-nothing $-8,810)
$113	17d	10 Jul 2026	$3.15	5/6	$2,779	$2,734	79%	74%	+$748	-$12,700	79.7%	$-16,942 (vs do-nothing $-8,835)
$111	24d	17 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/6	$3,125	$3,079	75%	68%	+$779	-$12,775	80.2%	$-17,017 (vs do-nothing $-8,910)
$114	38d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	6/6	$2,937	$2,746	74%	68%	+$532	-$12,810	80.4%	$-16,279 (vs do-nothing $-8,172)
$108	38d	31 Jul 2026	$7.80	5/6	$3,079	$3,033	71%	61%	+$417	-$12,875	80.8%	$-17,117 (vs do-nothing $-9,010)
$100	31d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	4/6	$3,619	$3,718	65%	51%	+$256	-$12,880	80.9%	$-17,895 (vs do-nothing $-9,788)
$115	31d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	6/6	$2,845	$2,655	76%	71%	+$589	-$12,990	81.5%	$-16,459 (vs do-nothing $-8,352)
$110	24d	17 Jul 2026	$5.50	5/6	$3,438	$3,392	74%	67%	+$933	-$13,025	81.8%	$-17,267 (vs do-nothing $-9,160)
$109	31d	24 Jul 2026	$6.50	5/6	$3,145	$3,100	72%	64%	+$527	-$13,025	81.8%	$-17,267 (vs do-nothing $-9,160)
$116	24d	17 Jul 2026	$3.80	6/6	$2,850	$2,660	79%	75%	+$829	-$13,050	81.9%	$-16,519 (vs do-nothing $-8,412)
$112	17d	10 Jul 2026	$3.35	5/6	$2,956	$2,910	78%	73%	+$752	-$13,100	82.2%	$-17,342 (vs do-nothing $-9,235)
$107	38d	31 Jul 2026	$8.10	5/6	$3,197	$3,152	70%	60%	+$409	-$13,225	83.0%	$-17,467 (vs do-nothing $-9,360)
$113	38d	31 Jul 2026	$6.45	6/6	$3,055	$2,865	74%	67%	+$533	-$13,260	83.2%	$-16,729 (vs do-nothing $-8,622)
$113	9d	2 Jul 2026	$1.81	5/6	$3,017	$2,971	84%	81%	+$1,269	-$13,370	83.9%	$-17,612 (vs do-nothing $-9,505)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v4.4 | 2026-06-23 01:53