FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB-STK-0865 @ $50.42

BE SS: $115.00 | CC-SS: $115.05 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RKLB-STK-0865 @ $50.42 UNDERWATER $64.58 (56.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

RKLB reports 2026-11-09 (Mon), in 18 days. The recommended CC (8d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-09.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $115.00 | CC-SS: $115.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $0 exp 2099-12-31 (entry $115.000/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$115,000	(ND $115.00 + SW $0) x 1000
Normal income ref	$5,360/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-64,630	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,680/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,360/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
21.5 mo to earn back $115,000

ML VELOCITY
21.5 mo to earn back $115,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $115.05 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $100C (15d, $20/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 11 (live) · RSI 38 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 26 · %B 12 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $74.06 (+47%) · daily UBB $82.41 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-09: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 9 contracts at $54 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 76%, breach 24%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,680/mo); it brings $2,835/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $52/8d for $5,438/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+12pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 10 × $58/8d (91% survival, $862/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $54,189 (47% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $115, recoverable in 10.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 9 contracts realizes $-58,203 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 (8d) · sell 9 × $54, 76% survival, $2,835/mo (E[net] $682/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	30 Oct 2026 · 8d	9 × $54	76%	$2,835	$682

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $756 with probability 61%; on the 39% touch you roll, paying $1,518 to close and taking $797 back from the best priced door (net cash $721) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 30 Oct 2026 · 8d · E[net] $682/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 9 × $54 (50% normal), 76% survival, breach 24%, $2,835/mo.
Stay at the pick. Stepping safer (the $55 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 24% → 19%) for $1,035/mo less (37% income)) buys little extra safety; the income is doing real work covering the bleed.

RKLB spot $50.42 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $58

30 Oct

15.0%

91%hist 95%

19%hist 14%

+1pp

$230

$862

-$1,972

$56,820

Sell 10 × $58 15.0% OTM over spot $50.42 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid)

= $230 credit for the 8d cycle → $862/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $58)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $58.27)

92%

EV / mo

+$311

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

12% whole by 9mo vs 11% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$603/mo

median; plan ~$410/mo after 68% keep · $5,224 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.8 mo, measured ONLY among the 12% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,581

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$64 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 372 simulated challenges: the $58 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $59 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$58	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.83/sh	+$827 cycle +$1,057 [+$743…+$1,177] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$55,993 NOT cap gain +$8,637
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$63	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$314 cycle +$544 [+$27…+$561] · 77% credit	77% surv 70%	-$51,926 NOT cap gain +$12,704
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$60	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.15/sh	+$150 cycle +$380 [-$34…+$397] · 72% credit	71% surv 61%	-$55,090 NOT cap gain +$9,540
Max even-money escape in the band	~$64	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.01/sh	+$14 cycle +$244 [-$321…+$251] · 47% credit	79% surv 74%	-$51,226 NOT cap gain +$13,404
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$862/mo
vs 50% target ($2,680/mo)	-68%
vs normal income ($5,360/mo)	16% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$862/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $58 is $57 below CC-SS $115.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$56,820
… as % of IC ($115,000)	49.4%
… as % of ML ($115,000)	49.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-64,665

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $58.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $58)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $57.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $57-58.27	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $58.27	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$58.00 (1.4σ)	$230	$-56,820	+$7,810	+$220
+2.5%	$59.45 (1.6σ)	$-1,220	$-56,820	+$7,810	-$1,230
+5%	$60.90 (1.9σ)	$-2,670	$-56,820	+$7,810	-$2,680
SS (= V-bounce)	$115.00 (11.8σ)	$-56,770	$-56,820	+$7,810	-$41,780

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,630

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$64,630

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $58): -$56,820

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,820 (+$7,810 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,780, the opportunity cost of earning $862/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $74.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,830, position total $-56,820 (+$7,810 vs today)

▸

33% normal

8 × $55

30 Oct

9.1%

81%hist 86%

40%hist 31%

+2pp

$480

$1,800

-$1,035

$47,560

Sell 8 × $55 9.1% OTM over spot $50.42 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.65 mid)

= $480 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $55)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $55.65)

83%

EV / mo

+$491

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

16% whole by 9mo vs 13% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$934/mo

median; plan ~$635/mo after 68% keep · $8,153 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.0 mo [4.9-7.6], measured ONLY among the 16% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

31%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$894

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$63 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.78–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 916 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $56 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$55	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.87/sh	+$698 cycle +$1,178 [+$545…+$816] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$58,870 NOT cap gain +$5,760
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$60	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.34/sh	+$269 cycle +$749 [-$73…+$289] · 66% credit	77% surv 71%	-$54,719 NOT cap gain +$9,911
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$57	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.20/sh	+$158 cycle +$638 [-$81…+$202] · 59% credit	72% surv 62%	-$57,830 NOT cap gain +$6,800
Max even-money escape in the band	~$61	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$33 cycle +$513 [-$353…+$38] · 29% credit	79% surv 74%	-$53,955 NOT cap gain +$10,675
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$63	13 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.42/sh	-$335 cycle +$145 [-$804…-$352] · 9% credit	83% surv 80%	-$52,323 NOT cap gain +$12,307
budget: banked $480 debit $335 (70% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $1,731/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,680/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($5,360/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,804/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $55 is $60 below CC-SS $115.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$47,560
… as % of IC ($115,000)	41.4%
… as % of ML ($115,000)	41.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	8.9 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-51,740

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $55.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $54.45	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $54-55.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $55.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$55.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$480	$-59,568	+$5,062	+$472
+2.5%	$56.37 (1.1σ)	$-620	$-59,293	+$5,337	-$628
+5%	$57.75 (1.3σ)	$-1,720	$-59,018	+$5,612	-$1,728
SS (= V-bounce)	$115.00 (11.8σ)	$-47,520	$-50,568	+$14,062	-$35,528

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,630

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$64,630

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $55): -$47,560

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $100): -$3,008

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,568 (+$14,062 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,528, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $74.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,768, position total $-55,756 (+$8,874 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

9 × $54

30 Oct

7.1%

76%hist 82%

50%hist 44%

+3pp

$756

$2,835

—

$54,189

Sell 9 × $54 7.1% OTM over spot $50.42 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $0.88 mid)

= $756 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,835/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $54)

76%

Breach risk

24%

POP (stays ≤ $54.88)

80%

EV / mo

+$760

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

15% whole by 9mo vs 12% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,311/mo

median; plan ~$892/mo after 68% keep · $11,319 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.5 mo [3.9-7.0], measured ONLY among the 15% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

39%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$762

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$64 @ 86% POP

85% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $2.38/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.84–$2.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,166 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $55 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$54	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.89/sh	+$797 cycle +$1,553 [+$594…+$858] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%	-$59,496 NOT cap gain +$5,134
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$59	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.34/sh	+$307 cycle +$1,063 [-$124…+$267] · 60% credit	77% surv 71%	-$55,406 NOT cap gain +$9,224
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$56	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.21/sh	+$191 cycle +$947 [-$112…+$180] · 53% credit	72% surv 62%	-$58,522 NOT cap gain +$6,108
Max even-money escape in the band	~$60	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$44 cycle +$800 [-$441…-$12] · 24% credit	79% surv 74%	-$54,669 NOT cap gain +$9,961
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$64	13 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.74/sh	-$670 cycle +$86 [-$1,331…-$775] · 1% credit	86% surv 85%	-$51,383 NOT cap gain +$13,247
budget: banked $756 debit $670 (89% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $1,413/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,835/mo
vs 50% target ($2,680/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($5,360/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,837/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $54 is $61 below CC-SS $115.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$54,189
… as % of IC ($115,000)	47.1%
… as % of ML ($115,000)	47.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	10.1 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-58,203

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $54.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $53.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $53-54.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $54.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$54.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$756	$-60,293	+$4,337	+$747
+2.5%	$55.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-459	$-60,158	+$4,472	-$468
+5%	$56.70 (1.1σ)	$-1,674	$-60,023	+$4,607	-$1,683
SS (= V-bounce)	$115.00 (11.8σ)	$-54,144	$-55,693	+$8,937	-$40,653

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,630

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$64,630

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $54): -$54,189

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$1,504

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,693 (+$8,937 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,653, the opportunity cost of earning $2,835/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $74.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,298, position total $-58,287 (+$6,343 vs today)

▸

100% normal

10 × $52

30 Oct

3.1%

63%hist 64%

76%hist 68%

+9pp

$1,450

$5,438

+$2,602

$61,600

Sell 10 × $52 3.1% OTM over spot $50.42 30 Oct 2026 (8d, $1.50 mid)

= $1,450 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,438/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $52)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $53.50)

73%

EV / mo

+$1,066

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

18% whole by 9mo vs 9% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~8.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,829/mo

median; plan ~$1,244/mo after 68% keep · $15,797 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.6 mo [4.3-7.5], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

61%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$174

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)

$65 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $2.30/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $2.05–$2.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,836 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $53 (overshoots $1.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$52	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.91/sh	+$908 cycle +$2,358 [+$641…+$826] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$60,692 NOT cap gain +$3,938
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$56	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.48/sh	+$478 cycle +$1,928 [-$73…+$283] · 69% credit	75% surv 68%	-$57,542 NOT cap gain +$7,088
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$54	6 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$237 cycle +$1,687 [-$165…+$95] · 43% credit	72% surv 62%	-$59,783 NOT cap gain +$4,847
Max even-money escape in the band	~$58	13 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$59 cycle +$1,509 [-$581…-$157] · 14% credit	80% surv 75%	-$55,961 NOT cap gain +$8,669
SS $115 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$65	13 Nov 2026	18d left	-$1.07/sh	-$1,069 cycle +$381 [-$2,070…-$1,403]	91% surv 90%	-$50,089 NOT cap gain +$14,541
budget: banked $1,450 debit $1,069 (74% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $925/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,438/mo
vs 50% target ($2,680/mo)	+103%
vs normal income ($5,360/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,438/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $52 is $63 below CC-SS $115.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$61,600
… as % of IC ($115,000)	53.6%
… as % of ML ($115,000)	53.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	11.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-64,680

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $53.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.41 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $51-53.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $53.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$52.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,450	$-61,600	+$3,030	+$1,440
+2.5%	$53.30 (≤1σ, normal week)	$150	$-61,600	+$3,030	+$140
+5%	$54.60 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,150	$-61,600	+$3,030	-$1,160
SS (= V-bounce)	$115.00 (11.8σ)	$-61,550	$-61,600	+$3,030	-$46,560

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-64,630

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$64,630

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$61,600

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,600 (+$3,030 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-15,040 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,560, the opportunity cost of earning $5,438/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $74.06 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$20,610, position total $-61,600 (+$3,030 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RKLB are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.000 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$64,630 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-15,040

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$54	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.84	9/10	$756	$2,835	$2,837	76%hist 82%	50%hist 44%	80%	+$760	-$54,189	47.1%	10.1mo	$-55,693 (vs do-nothing $-40,653)
$56	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.98	10/10	$1,980	$2,700	$2,700	74%hist 82%	57%hist 44%	79%	+$719	-$57,070	49.6%	10.6mo	$-57,070 (vs do-nothing $-42,030)
$54	15d	6 Nov 2026	$1.54	9/10	$1,386	$2,772	$2,774	70%hist 82%	62%hist 56%	77%	+$584	-$53,559	46.6%	10.0mo	$-55,063 (vs do-nothing $-40,023)
$55	22d	13 Nov 2026	$2.28	9/10	$2,052	$2,798	$2,800	70%hist 82%	63%hist 56%	77%	+$663	-$51,993	45.2%	9.7mo	$-53,497 (vs do-nothing $-38,457)
$53	8d	30 Oct 2026	$1.10	7/10	$770	$2,888	$2,894	70%hist 64%	62%hist 56%	76%	+$646	-$42,665	37.1%	8.0mo	$-47,177 (vs do-nothing $-32,137)
$54	22d	13 Nov 2026	$2.40	9/10	$2,160	$2,945	$2,947	67%hist 64%	70%hist 68%	75%	+$541	-$52,785	45.9%	9.8mo	$-54,289 (vs do-nothing $-39,249)
$53	15d	6 Nov 2026	$1.86	8/10	$1,488	$2,976	$2,980	66%hist 64%	72%hist 68%	74%	+$555	-$48,152	41.9%	9.0mo	$-51,160 (vs do-nothing $-36,120)
$53	22d	13 Nov 2026	$2.96	7/10	$2,072	$2,825	$2,831	64%hist 64%	78%hist 68%	73%	+$541	-$41,363	36.0%	7.7mo	$-45,875 (vs do-nothing $-30,835)
$52	8d	30 Oct 2026	$1.45	5/10	$725	$2,719	$2,729	63%hist 64%	76%hist 68%	73%	+$533	-$30,800	26.8%	5.7mo	$-38,320 (vs do-nothing $-23,280)
$52	15d	6 Nov 2026	$2.24	6/10	$1,344	$2,688	$2,696	61%hist 64%	82%hist 78%	72%	+$449	-$36,486	31.7%	6.8mo	$-42,502 (vs do-nothing $-27,462)
$52	22d	13 Nov 2026	$3.30	6/10	$1,980	$2,700	$2,708	60%hist 64%	86%hist 78%	72%	+$440	-$35,850	31.2%	6.7mo	$-41,866 (vs do-nothing $-26,826)
$51	8d	30 Oct 2026	$1.86	4/10	$744	$2,790	$2,802	56%hist 68%	91%hist 90%	69%	+$449	-$24,876	21.6%	4.6mo	$-33,900 (vs do-nothing $-18,860)
$51	22d	13 Nov 2026	$3.70	6/10	$2,220	$3,027	$3,035	56%hist 68%	95%hist 90%	70%	+$440	-$36,210	31.5%	6.8mo	$-42,226 (vs do-nothing $-27,186)

Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$51	15d	6 Nov 2026	$2.66	6/10	$1,596	$3,192	$3,200	56%hist 68%	93%hist 90%	69%	+$458	-$36,834	32.0%	6.9mo	$-42,850 (vs do-nothing $-27,810)
$50	22d	13 Nov 2026	$4.25	5/10	$2,125	$2,898	$2,908	52%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	68%	+$438	-$30,400	26.4%	5.7mo	$-37,920 (vs do-nothing $-22,880)
$50	15d	6 Nov 2026	$3.10	5/10	$1,550	$3,100	$3,110	51%hist 68%	100%hist 90%	67%	+$347	-$30,975	26.9%	5.8mo	$-38,495 (vs do-nothing $-23,455)
$50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$2.34	4/10	$936	$3,510	$3,522	49%	100%hist 90%	66%	+$443	-$25,084	21.8%	4.7mo	$-34,108 (vs do-nothing $-19,068)
$49.50	8d	30 Oct 2026	$2.60	3/10	$780	$2,925	$2,939	45%	100%hist 90%	64%	+$313	-$18,885	16.4%	3.5mo	$-29,413 (vs do-nothing $-14,373)

64 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$100	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$20	$20	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$20	-$15,040	13.1%	2.8mo	$-15,040 (vs do-nothing $-0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$90	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	10/10	$20	$40	$40	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$40	-$25,030	21.8%	4.7mo	$-25,030 (vs do-nothing $-9,990)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$75	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$38	$38	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$37	-$40,040	34.8%	7.5mo	$-40,040 (vs do-nothing $-25,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$70	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$38	$38	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$37	-$45,040	39.2%	8.4mo	$-45,040 (vs do-nothing $-30,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$100	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$14	$14	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$9	-$15,040	13.1%	2.8mo	$-15,040 (vs do-nothing $-0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$83	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$20	$20	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$9	-$32,040	27.9%	6.0mo	$-32,040 (vs do-nothing $-17,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$73	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.05	10/10	$50	$100	$100	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$92	-$42,000	36.5%	7.8mo	$-42,000 (vs do-nothing $-26,960)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$80	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$20	$20	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$6	-$35,040	30.5%	6.5mo	$-35,040 (vs do-nothing $-20,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$85	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	10/10	$40	$55	$55	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$35	-$30,010	26.1%	5.6mo	$-30,010 (vs do-nothing $-14,970)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$68	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$38	$38	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$4	-$47,040	40.9%	8.8mo	$-47,040 (vs do-nothing $-32,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$83	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	10/10	$50	$68	$68	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$41	-$32,000	27.8%	6.0mo	$-32,000 (vs do-nothing $-16,960)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$70	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.07	10/10	$70	$140	$140	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$118	-$44,980	39.1%	8.4mo	$-44,980 (vs do-nothing $-29,940)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$82	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.06	10/10	$60	$82	$82	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$49	-$32,990	28.7%	6.2mo	$-32,990 (vs do-nothing $-17,950)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$74	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.03	10/10	$30	$60	$60	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$28	-$41,020	35.7%	7.7mo	$-41,020 (vs do-nothing $-25,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$66	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.03	10/10	$30	$112	$112	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$67	-$49,020	42.6%	9.1mo	$-49,020 (vs do-nothing $-33,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$72	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$20	$20	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	$-19	-$43,040	37.4%	8.0mo	$-43,040 (vs do-nothing $-28,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$80	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.11	10/10	$110	$150	$150	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$105	-$34,940	30.4%	6.5mo	$-34,940 (vs do-nothing $-19,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$65	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.03	10/10	$30	$112	$112	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$56	-$50,020	43.5%	9.3mo	$-50,020 (vs do-nothing $-34,980)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$78	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.10	10/10	$100	$136	$136	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$74	-$36,950	32.1%	6.9mo	$-36,950 (vs do-nothing $-21,910)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$64	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.01	10/10	$10	$38	$38	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	$-35	-$51,040	44.4%	9.5mo	$-51,040 (vs do-nothing $-36,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$77	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.12	10/10	$120	$164	$164	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$91	-$37,930	33.0%	7.1mo	$-37,930 (vs do-nothing $-22,890)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$69	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.07	10/10	$70	$140	$140	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$72	-$45,980	40.0%	8.6mo	$-45,980 (vs do-nothing $-30,940)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$67	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.11	10/10	$110	$220	$220	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$158	-$47,940	41.7%	8.9mo	$-47,940 (vs do-nothing $-32,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$76	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.12	10/10	$120	$164	$164	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$78	-$38,930	33.9%	7.3mo	$-38,930 (vs do-nothing $-23,890)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$63	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.06	10/10	$60	$225	$225	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$129	-$51,990	45.2%	9.7mo	$-51,990 (vs do-nothing $-36,950)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$75	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.17	10/10	$170	$232	$232	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$132	-$39,880	34.7%	7.4mo	$-39,880 (vs do-nothing $-24,840)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$66	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.15	10/10	$150	$300	$300	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$213	-$48,900	42.5%	9.1mo	$-48,900 (vs do-nothing $-33,860)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$74	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.14	10/10	$140	$191	$191	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$74	-$40,910	35.6%	7.6mo	$-40,910 (vs do-nothing $-25,870)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$62	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.07	10/10	$70	$262	$262	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$132	-$52,980	46.1%	9.9mo	$-52,980 (vs do-nothing $-37,940)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$73	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.21	10/10	$210	$286	$286	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	97%	+$151	-$41,840	36.4%	7.8mo	$-41,840 (vs do-nothing $-26,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$65	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.17	10/10	$170	$340	$340	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$220	-$49,880	43.4%	9.3mo	$-49,880 (vs do-nothing $-34,840)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$72	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.24	10/10	$240	$327	$327	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$169	-$42,810	37.2%	8.0mo	$-42,810 (vs do-nothing $-27,770)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$61	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.10	10/10	$100	$375	$375	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$191	-$53,950	46.9%	10.1mo	$-53,950 (vs do-nothing $-38,910)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$71	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.25	10/10	$250	$341	$341	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$157	-$43,800	38.1%	8.2mo	$-43,800 (vs do-nothing $-28,760)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$64	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.15	10/10	$150	$300	$300	95%hist 95%	10%hist 4%	96%	+$136	-$50,900	44.3%	9.5mo	$-50,900 (vs do-nothing $-35,860)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$70	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.30	10/10	$300	$409	$409	95%hist 95%	11%hist 14%	95%	+$196	-$44,750	38.9%	8.3mo	$-44,750 (vs do-nothing $-29,710)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$60	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.14	10/10	$140	$525	$525	95%hist 95%	11%hist 14%	95%	+$262	-$54,910	47.7%	10.2mo	$-54,910 (vs do-nothing $-39,870)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$69	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.33	10/10	$330	$450	$450	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	95%	+$202	-$45,720	39.8%	8.5mo	$-45,720 (vs do-nothing $-30,680)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$63	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.20	10/10	$200	$400	$400	94%hist 95%	12%hist 14%	95%	+$176	-$51,850	45.1%	9.7mo	$-51,850 (vs do-nothing $-36,810)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$68	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.40	10/10	$400	$545	$545	94%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$257	-$46,650	40.6%	8.7mo	$-46,650 (vs do-nothing $-31,610)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$65	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.57	10/10	$570	$777	$777	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	94%	+$536	-$49,480	43.0%	9.2mo	$-49,480 (vs do-nothing $-34,440)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$59	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.19	10/10	$190	$712	$712	93%hist 95%	14%hist 14%	93%	+$332	-$55,860	48.6%	10.4mo	$-55,860 (vs do-nothing $-40,820)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$62	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.31	10/10	$310	$620	$620	93%hist 95%	15%hist 14%	93%	+$318	-$52,740	45.9%	9.8mo	$-52,740 (vs do-nothing $-37,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$67	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.42	10/10	$420	$573	$573	93%hist 95%	15%hist 14%	93%	+$236	-$47,630	41.4%	8.9mo	$-47,630 (vs do-nothing $-32,590)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$66	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.51	10/10	$510	$695	$695	92%hist 95%	17%hist 14%	92%	+$303	-$48,540	42.2%	9.1mo	$-48,540 (vs do-nothing $-33,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$61	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.35	10/10	$350	$700	$700	91%hist 95%	19%hist 14%	92%	+$262	-$53,700	46.7%	10.0mo	$-53,700 (vs do-nothing $-38,660)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$58	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.23	10/10	$230	$862	$862	91%hist 95%	19%hist 14%	92%	+$311	-$56,820	49.4%	10.6mo	$-56,820 (vs do-nothing $-41,780)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$64	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.66	10/10	$660	$900	$900	90%hist 86%	22%hist 24%	91%	+$362	-$50,390	43.8%	9.4mo	$-50,390 (vs do-nothing $-35,350)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$60	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.44	10/10	$440	$880	$880	89%hist 86%	22%hist 24%	90%	+$343	-$54,610	47.5%	10.2mo	$-54,610 (vs do-nothing $-39,570)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$63	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.74	10/10	$740	$1,009	$1,009	88%hist 86%	25%hist 24%	89%	+$377	-$51,310	44.6%	9.6mo	$-51,310 (vs do-nothing $-36,270)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$57	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.33	10/10	$330	$1,238	$1,238	88%hist 86%	24%hist 24%	89%	+$440	-$57,720	50.2%	10.8mo	$-57,720 (vs do-nothing $-42,680)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$59	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.51	10/10	$510	$1,020	$1,020	87%hist 86%	27%hist 24%	88%	+$313	-$55,540	48.3%	10.4mo	$-55,540 (vs do-nothing $-40,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$62	22d	13 Nov 2026	$0.86	10/10	$860	$1,173	$1,173	87%hist 86%	28%hist 24%	88%	+$429	-$52,190	45.4%	9.7mo	$-52,190 (vs do-nothing $-37,150)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$61	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.00	10/10	$1,000	$1,364	$1,364	85%hist 86%	31%hist 31%	87%	+$488	-$53,050	46.1%	9.9mo	$-53,050 (vs do-nothing $-38,010)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$56	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.45	10/10	$450	$1,688	$1,688	85%hist 86%	31%hist 31%	87%	+$539	-$58,600	51.0%	10.9mo	$-58,600 (vs do-nothing $-43,560)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$58	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.66	10/10	$660	$1,320	$1,320	84%hist 86%	32%hist 31%	86%	+$385	-$56,390	49.0%	10.5mo	$-56,390 (vs do-nothing $-41,350)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$60	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.14	10/10	$1,140	$1,555	$1,555	83%hist 86%	35%hist 31%	86%	+$523	-$53,910	46.9%	10.1mo	$-53,910 (vs do-nothing $-38,870)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$57	15d	6 Nov 2026	$0.83	10/10	$830	$1,660	$1,660	82%hist 86%	39%hist 31%	84%	+$461	-$57,220	49.8%	10.7mo	$-57,220 (vs do-nothing $-42,180)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$59	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.30	10/10	$1,300	$1,773	$1,773	81%hist 86%	40%hist 31%	84%	+$557	-$54,750	47.6%	10.2mo	$-54,750 (vs do-nothing $-39,710)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$55	8d	30 Oct 2026	$0.60	10/10	$600	$2,250	$2,250	81%hist 86%	40%hist 31%	83%	+$613	-$59,450	51.7%	11.1mo	$-59,450 (vs do-nothing $-44,410)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$58	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.50	10/10	$1,500	$2,045	$2,045	79%hist 82%	45%hist 41%	83%	+$613	-$55,550	48.3%	10.4mo	$-55,550 (vs do-nothing $-40,510)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$56	15d	6 Nov 2026	$1.00	10/10	$1,000	$2,000	$2,000	78%hist 82%	46%hist 41%	82%	+$472	-$58,050	50.5%	10.8mo	$-58,050 (vs do-nothing $-43,010)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$57	22d	13 Nov 2026	$1.73	10/10	$1,730	$2,359	$2,359	76%hist 82%	50%hist 44%	81%	+$674	-$56,320	49.0%	10.5mo	$-56,320 (vs do-nothing $-41,280)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$55	15d	6 Nov 2026	$1.25	10/10	$1,250	$2,500	$2,500	75%hist 82%	53%hist 44%	79%	+$565	-$58,800	51.1%	11.0mo	$-58,800 (vs do-nothing $-43,760)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-23 03:21