FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB @ $50.76

BE SS: $141.55  |  CC-SS: $150.01  |  6 contracts (600 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-10-17 03:18

RKLB @ $50.76   UNDERWATER $90.79 (64.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
RKLB reports 2026-11-09 (Mon), in 24 days. The recommended CC (6d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-09.

6 contracts (600 sh)  |  BE SS: $141.55  |  CC-SS: $150.01 (banked floor $145.74)  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $115 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $75.947/sh)
SP: $135 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $49.982/sh)
HP: $45 exp 2026-12-18 (entry $2.187/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$69,930(ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600
Normal income ref$3,891/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$987/mo
Unrealized P&L$-61,800fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,945/mo
HEDGE COVER
$987/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$3,891/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.1 mo to earn back $15,930
ML VELOCITY
18.0 mo to earn back $69,930
Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $150.01 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $100C (13d, $14/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$2,726
Hole (after banked)
$59,074
was $61,800 · 4% earned back
Cycles closed
25
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$150.01 → $145.74
? 6 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
Full leg history (25) and event log · CLOSED 14 · UNKNOWN 6 · EXPIRED 5 · updated 2026-10-17 03:11
StatusLegCredit/shCreditOpenedClosedClose/shBankedAccountSource
EXPIRED6x $73C 16 Oct 2026$0.57$3452026-10-122026-10-17$0.00$345U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $90C 16 Oct 2026$0.54$542026-10-072026-10-12$0.04$50U18827291execution
CLOSED2x $90C 16 Oct 2026$0.54$1082026-10-072026-10-12$0.03$102U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $90C 16 Oct 2026$0.54$542026-10-072026-10-12$0.03$51U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $90C 16 Oct 2026$0.54$542026-10-072026-10-12$0.04$50U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $90C 16 Oct 2026$0.54$542026-10-072026-10-12$0.04$50U18827291execution
CLOSED4x $78C 9 Oct 2026$0.65$2602026-10-062026-10-07$1.90$-500U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $78C 9 Oct 2026$0.65$652026-10-062026-10-07$1.88$-123U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $78C 9 Oct 2026$0.65$652026-10-062026-10-07$1.87$-122U18827291execution
CLOSED3x $90C 16 Oct 2026$0.63$1882026-10-052026-10-06$0.26$110U18827291snapshot
CLOSED3x $90C 16 Oct 2026$0.63$1882026-10-052026-10-06$0.26$110U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN6x $79C 9 Oct 2026$0.83$5002026-10-022026-10-05$0.83$0U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN6x $85C 9 Oct 2026$0.75$4522026-09-252026-10-02$0.75$0U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN6x $75C 25 Sep 2026$0.68$4102026-09-182026-09-25$0.68$0U18827291snapshot
EXPIRED6x $69C 11 Sep 2026$0.65$3902026-09-022026-09-14$0.00$390U18827291execution
UNKNOWN6x $75C 4 Sep 2026$0.95$5702026-08-262026-09-02$0.95$0U18827291execution
EXPIRED6x $90C 21 Aug 2026$1.50$8972026-08-122026-08-24$0.00$897U18827291snapshot
EXPIRED6x $72C 31 Jul 2026$0.75$4512026-07-282026-08-03$0.00$451U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN6x $75C 31 Jul 2026$0.62$3742026-07-272026-07-28$0.62$0U18827291snapshot
UNKNOWN6x $83C 31 Jul 2026$1.05$6322026-07-222026-07-27$1.05$0U18827291execution
CLOSED1x $75C 24 Jul 2026$1.39$1392026-07-182026-07-22$1.17$22U18827291snapshot
CLOSED2x $75C 24 Jul 2026$1.39$2772026-07-182026-07-22$1.18$41U18827291snapshot
CLOSED2x $75C 24 Jul 2026$1.39$2772026-07-182026-07-22$1.18$41U18827291snapshot
CLOSED1x $75C 24 Jul 2026$1.39$1392026-07-182026-07-22$1.17$22U18827291snapshot
EXPIRED6x $101C 17 Jul 2026$1.23$7382026-07-072026-07-18$0.00$738U18827291execution
Event log
2026-10-17 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 6x $73C: banked $345
2026-10-12 CLOSED 1x $90C 20261016: banked $50
2026-10-12 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $90C: banked $50 (1 remain)
2026-10-12 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $90C: banked $50 (2 remain)
2026-10-12 SOLD 1x $73C 20261016 @ $0.57 (extends leg to 6)
2026-10-12 SOLD 1x $73C 20261016 @ $0.57 (extends leg to 5)
2026-10-12 SOLD 1x $73C 20261016 @ $0.57 (extends leg to 4)
2026-10-12 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $90C: banked $51 (3 remain)
2026-10-12 SOLD 1x $73C 20261016 @ $0.58 (extends leg to 3)
2026-10-12 PARTIAL CLOSE 2x $90C: banked $102 (4 remain)
2026-10-12 SOLD 2x $73C 20261016 @ $0.58 (new leg)
2026-10-07 CLOSED 4x $78C 20261009: banked $-500
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $78C: banked $-122 (4 remain)
2026-10-07 PARTIAL CLOSE 1x $78C: banked $-123 (5 remain)
2026-10-07 SOLD 4x $90C 20261016 @ $0.55 (extends leg to 6)
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $90C 20261016 @ $0.52 (extends leg to 2)
2026-10-07 SOLD 1x $90C 20261016 @ $0.53 (new leg)
2026-10-06 CLOSED 3x $90C 20261016: banked $110
2026-10-06 PARTIAL CLOSE 3x $90C: banked $110 (3 remain)
2026-10-06 SOLD 3x $78C 20261009 @ $0.65 (extends leg to 6)
2026-10-06 SOLD 3x $78C 20261009 @ $0.65 (new leg)
2026-10-05 TRACKING 6x $90C 20261016 @ $0.63 (snapshot)
2026-10-05 ? 6x $79C 20261009 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-10-02 TRACKING 6x $79C 20261009 @ $0.83 (snapshot)
2026-10-02 ? 6x $85C 20261009 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-25 TRACKING 6x $85C 20261009 @ $0.75 (snapshot)
2026-09-25 ? 6x $75C 20260925 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-18 TRACKING 6x $75C 20260925 @ $0.68 (snapshot)
2026-09-14 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 6x $69C: banked $390
2026-09-02 ? 6x $75C 20260904 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-09-02 SOLD 6x $69C 20260911 @ $0.65 (new leg)
2026-08-26 SOLD 6x $75C 20260904 @ $0.95 (new leg)
2026-08-24 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 6x $90C: banked $897
2026-08-12 TRACKING 6x $90C 20260821 @ $1.50 (snapshot)
2026-08-03 EXPIRED WORTHLESS 6x $72C: banked $451
2026-07-28 TRACKING 6x $72C 20260731 @ $0.75 (snapshot)
2026-07-28 ? 6x $75C 20260731 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-07-27 TRACKING 6x $75C 20260731 @ $0.62 (snapshot)
2026-07-27 ? 6x $83C 20260731 vanished with no fill in window: banked $0 (conservative), fix campaign.json by hand if wrong
2026-07-22 CLOSED 1x $75C 20260724: banked $22
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 9 (live) · RSI 39 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 24 · %B -6 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $77.03 (+52%) · daily UBB $82.22 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)
SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-09: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 5 contracts at $54 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,945/mo); it brings $2,175/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $52/6d for $4,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 38% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $56/6d (87% survival, $1,175/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $47,570 (299% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $142, recoverable in 12.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-51,525 and cuts bleed by $823/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 23 Oct 2026 (6d) · sell 5 × $54, 77% survival, $2,175/mo (E[net] $626/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆23 Oct 2026 · 6d5 × $5477%$2,175$626
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $435 with probability 63%; on the 37% touch you roll, paying $861 to close and taking $450 back from the best priced door (net cash $411) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 23 Oct 2026 · 6d · E[net] $626/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $54 (50% normal), 77% survival, breach 23%, $2,175/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $56 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 23% → 13%) for $765/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $56 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect RKLB to stay flat-to-down near term.
RKLB  spot $50.76 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
▸cover hedge5 × $5623 Oct6d10.3%87%hist 86%26%hist 24%+2pp$235$1,175-$1,000$46,770
Sell 5 × $56 10.3% OTM over spot $50.76 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $0.49 mid)
= $235 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,175/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $56)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $56.49)
89%
EV / mo
+$685
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
5% whole by 9mo vs 3% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~2.9/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-218/mo
median; plan ~$-148/mo after 68% keep · $-1,932 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~6.9 mo, measured ONLY among the 5% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$658
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$64 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.79–$2.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 579 simulated challenges: the $56 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $57 (overshoots $1.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$5630 Oct 202610d left+$0.87/sh+$436
cycle +$671
[+$300…+$525] · 98% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$58,355 NOT
cap gain +$3,445
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$6013 Nov 202624d left+$0.64/sh+$319
cycle +$554
[+$42…+$387] · 78% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$56,228 NOT
cap gain +$5,572
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5730 Oct 202610d left+$0.29/sh+$147
cycle +$382
[-$43…+$208] · 69% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$57,988 NOT
cap gain +$3,812
Max even-money escape in the band~$6213 Nov 202624d left+$0.13/sh+$63
cycle +$298
[-$291…+$108] · 38% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$55,426 NOT
cap gain +$6,374
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$6413 Nov 202624d left-$0.36/sh-$180
cycle +$55
[-$585…-$158] · 12% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$54,610 NOT
cap gain +$7,190
budget: banked $235 debit $180 (77% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$55 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $891/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,175/mo
vs 50% target ($1,945/mo)-40%
vs normal income ($3,891/mo)30% covered
Net income (after hedge)$190/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $56 is $94 below CC-SS $150.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$46,770
… as % of IC ($15,930)293.6%
… as % of ML ($69,930)66.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)12.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-51,512
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $56.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $55.44Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$55-56.49
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $56.49
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$56.00 (1.1σ)$235$-58,791+$3,009+$230
+2.5%$57.40 (1.4σ)$-465$-58,750+$3,050-$470
+5%$58.80 (1.7σ)$-1,165$-58,709+$3,091-$1,170
SS (= V-bounce)$141.55 (19.6σ)$-42,540$-60,448+$1,352-$21,770
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,523
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$46,770
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$5,000
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,047 (+$753 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-39,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,770, the opportunity cost of earning $1,175/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $77.03 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,280, position total $-58,177 (+$3,623 vs today)
▸33% normal ← lean6 × $5623 Oct6d10.3%87%hist 86%26%hist 24%+1pp$282$1,410-$765$56,124
Sell 6 × $56 10.3% OTM over spot $50.76 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $0.49 mid)
= $282 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,410/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $56)
87%
Breach risk
13%
POP (stays ≤ $56.49)
89%
EV / mo
+$822
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
2% whole by 9mo vs 2% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~3.0/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$-39/mo
median; plan ~$-27/mo after 68% keep · $-352 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo, measured ONLY among the 2% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
19%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$790
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$64 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 574 simulated challenges: the $56 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $57 (overshoots $1.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (6 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$5630 Oct 202610d left+$0.87/sh+$523
cycle +$805
[+$390…+$700] · 97% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$58,222 NOT
cap gain +$3,578
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$6013 Nov 202624d left+$0.64/sh+$383
cycle +$665
[+$110…+$515] · 82% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$56,119 NOT
cap gain +$5,681
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5730 Oct 202610d left+$0.29/sh+$176
cycle +$458
[-$10…+$289] · 73% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$57,912 NOT
cap gain +$3,888
Max even-money escape in the band~$6213 Nov 202624d left+$0.13/sh+$76
cycle +$358
[-$280…+$189] · 44% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$55,367 NOT
cap gain +$6,433
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$6413 Nov 202624d left-$0.36/sh-$216
cycle +$66
[-$623…-$116] · 16% credit
83%
surv 80%
-$54,600 NOT
cap gain +$7,200
budget: banked $282 debit $216 (77% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$66 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,070/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,410/mo
vs 50% target ($1,945/mo)-28%
vs normal income ($3,891/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$423/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $56 is $94 below CC-SS $150.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$56,124
… as % of IC ($15,930)352.3%
… as % of ML ($69,930)80.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)14.4 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)$-61,815
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $56.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $56)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $55.44Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$55-56.49
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $56.49
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$56.00 (1.1σ)$282$-58,745+$3,055+$276
+2.5%$57.40 (1.4σ)$-558$-58,844+$2,956-$564
+5%$58.80 (1.7σ)$-1,398$-58,943+$2,857-$1,404
SS (= V-bounce)$141.55 (19.6σ)$-51,048$-64,802-$3,002-$26,124
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,523
− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$56,124
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-65,401 ($-3,601 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-39,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,124, the opportunity cost of earning $1,410/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $77.03 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,336, position total $-60,234 (+$1,566 vs today)
▸🎯 50% normal5 × $5423 Oct6d6.4%77%hist 82%48%hist 42%+2pp$435$2,175—$47,570
Sell 5 × $54 6.4% OTM over spot $50.76 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $0.92 mid)
= $435 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,175/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $54)
77%
Breach risk
23%
POP (stays ≤ $54.92)
82%
EV / mo
+$979
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+2pp
3% whole by 9mo vs 1% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~5.8/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$93/mo
median; plan ~$63/mo after 68% keep · $838 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~8.0 mo, measured ONLY among the 3% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
37%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$426
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$65 @ 88% POP
86% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.44/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.86–$2.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.85/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,099 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $55 (overshoots $1.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$5430 Oct 202610d left+$0.90/sh+$450
cycle +$885
[+$289…+$501] · 99% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$59,199 NOT
cap gain +$2,601
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5813 Nov 202624d left+$0.65/sh+$327
cycle +$762
[+$13…+$321] · 77% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$57,078 NOT
cap gain +$4,722
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5530 Oct 202610d left+$0.32/sh+$162
cycle +$597
[-$58…+$165] · 63% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$58,831 NOT
cap gain +$2,969
Max even-money escape in the band~$6013 Nov 202624d left+$0.14/sh+$71
cycle +$506
[-$311…+$46] · 30% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$56,276 NOT
cap gain +$5,524
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$6513 Nov 202624d left-$0.77/sh-$387
cycle +$48
[-$867…-$438] · 1% credit
88%
surv 86%
-$54,089 NOT
cap gain +$7,711
budget: banked $435 debit $387 (89% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $592/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,175/mo
vs 50% target ($1,945/mo)+12%
vs normal income ($3,891/mo)56% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,190/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $54 is $96 below CC-SS $150.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$47,570
… as % of IC ($15,930)298.6%
… as % of ML ($69,930)68.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)12.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-51,525
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $54.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $53.46Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$53-54.92
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $54.92
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$54.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$435$-59,649+$2,151+$430
+2.5%$55.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-240$-59,610+$2,190-$245
+5%$56.70 (1.3σ)$-915$-59,571+$2,229-$920
SS (= V-bounce)$141.55 (19.6σ)$-43,340$-61,248+$552-$22,570
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,523
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $54): -$47,570
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$5,000
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,847 ($-47 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-39,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,570, the opportunity cost of earning $2,175/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $77.03 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,080, position total $-58,977 (+$2,823 vs today)
▸100% normal5 × $5223 Oct6d2.4%62%hist 64%78%hist 69%+1pp$800$4,000+$1,825$48,205
Sell 5 × $52 2.4% OTM over spot $50.76 23 Oct 2026 (6d, $1.65 mid)
= $800 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $52)
62%
Breach risk
38%
POP (stays ≤ $53.65)
74%
EV / mo
+$1,394
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+1pp
2% whole by 9mo vs 1% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~11.6/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$413/mo
median; plan ~$281/mo after 68% keep · $3,693 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~7.3 mo, measured ONLY among the 2% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
61%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$29
Free roll-up
+$1/wk
Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026)
$65 @ 90% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.35/sh now → $1.66 mid-life (likely $2.12–$3.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,838 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $53 (overshoots $1.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (5 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$5230 Oct 202610d left+$0.93/sh+$463
cycle +$1,263
[+$261…+$398] · 98% credit
68%
surv 52%
-$59,880 NOT
cap gain +$1,920
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$5613 Nov 202624d left+$0.67/sh+$333
cycle +$1,133
[-$51…+$217] · 68% credit
77%
surv 70%
-$57,766 NOT
cap gain +$4,034
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$5330 Oct 202610d left+$0.35/sh+$175
cycle +$975
[-$89…+$94] · 53% credit
72%
surv 60%
-$59,511 NOT
cap gain +$2,289
Max even-money escape in the band~$5813 Nov 202624d left+$0.15/sh+$77
cycle +$877
[-$383…-$63] · 17% credit
80%
surv 75%
-$56,964 NOT
cap gain +$4,836
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$6513 Nov 202624d left-$0.96/sh-$481
cycle +$319
[-$1,088…-$668]
90%
surv 90%
-$53,817 NOT
cap gain +$7,983
budget: banked $800 debit $481 (60% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$319 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $436/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$4,000/mo
vs 50% target ($1,945/mo)+106%
vs normal income ($3,891/mo)103% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,015/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $52 is $98 below CC-SS $150.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$48,205
… as % of IC ($15,930)302.6%
… as % of ML ($69,930)68.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)12.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)$-51,522
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $53.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $82.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$51-53.65
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $53.65
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.88 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$52.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$800$-60,343+$1,457+$795
+2.5%$53.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$150$-60,305+$1,495+$145
+5%$54.60 (≤1σ, normal week)$-500$-60,267+$1,533-$505
SS (= V-bounce)$141.55 (19.6σ)$-43,975$-61,883-$83-$23,205
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $150.01, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-61,800
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,523
− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $52): -$48,205
− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $100): -$5,000
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-62,482 ($-682 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-39,277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,205, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $77.03 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,715, position total $-59,612 (+$2,188 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RKLB are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.882 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$52,523 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-39,277

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$546d23 Oct 2026$0.875/6$435$2,175$1,19077%hist 82%48%hist 42%82%+$979-$47,570298.6%12.2mo$-61,847 (vs do-nothing $-22,570)
$5413d30 Oct 2026$1.576/6$942$2,174$1,18770%hist 82%62%hist 57%77%+$643-$56,664355.7%14.6mo$-65,941 (vs do-nothing $-26,664)
$536d23 Oct 2026$1.164/6$464$2,320$1,33870%hist 64%62%hist 57%78%+$885-$38,340240.7%9.9mo$-57,617 (vs do-nothing $-18,340)
$5420d6 Nov 2026$2.226/6$1,332$1,998$1,01168%hist 64%69%hist 57%76%+$546-$56,274353.3%14.5mo$-65,551 (vs do-nothing $-26,274)
$5427d13 Nov 2026$3.006/6$1,800$2,000$1,01366%hist 64%73%hist 69%76%+$631-$55,806350.3%14.3mo$-65,083 (vs do-nothing $-25,806)
$5313d30 Oct 2026$1.935/6$965$2,227$1,24265%hist 64%73%hist 69%75%+$602-$47,540298.4%12.2mo$-61,817 (vs do-nothing $-22,540)
$5320d6 Nov 2026$2.605/6$1,300$1,950$96563%hist 64%78%hist 69%74%+$496-$47,205296.3%12.1mo$-61,482 (vs do-nothing $-22,205)
$5327d13 Nov 2026$3.456/6$2,070$2,300$1,31363%hist 64%81%hist 79%75%+$702-$56,136352.4%14.4mo$-65,413 (vs do-nothing $-26,136)
$526d23 Oct 2026$1.603/6$480$2,400$1,42062%hist 64%78%hist 69%74%+$836-$28,923181.6%7.4mo$-53,200 (vs do-nothing $-13,923)
$5213d30 Oct 2026$2.344/6$936$2,160$1,17860%hist 67%85%hist 79%72%+$526-$38,268240.2%9.8mo$-57,545 (vs do-nothing $-18,268)
$5220d6 Nov 2026$3.005/6$1,500$2,250$1,26559%hist 67%87%hist 79%72%+$509-$47,505298.2%12.2mo$-61,782 (vs do-nothing $-22,505)
$5227d13 Nov 2026$3.555/6$1,775$1,972$98759%hist 67%89%hist 79%72%+$426-$47,230296.5%12.1mo$-61,507 (vs do-nothing $-22,230)
$5127d13 Nov 2026$4.255/6$2,125$2,361$1,37655%hist 67%98%hist 90%71%+$574-$47,380297.4%12.2mo$-61,657 (vs do-nothing $-22,380)
Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SS
$5120d6 Nov 2026$3.404/6$1,360$2,040$1,05854%hist 67%98%hist 90%70%+$384-$38,244240.1%9.8mo$-57,521 (vs do-nothing $-18,244)
$5113d30 Oct 2026$2.814/6$1,124$2,594$1,61154%hist 67%97%hist 90%70%+$565-$38,480241.6%9.9mo$-57,757 (vs do-nothing $-18,480)
$516d23 Oct 2026$2.032/6$406$2,030$1,05254%hist 67%96%hist 90%70%+$563-$19,396121.8%5.0mo$-48,673 (vs do-nothing $-9,396)
$5027d13 Nov 2026$4.554/6$1,820$2,022$1,04051%hist 67%100%hist 90%69%+$379-$38,184239.7%9.8mo$-57,461 (vs do-nothing $-18,184)
$5020d6 Nov 2026$3.904/6$1,560$2,340$1,35850%100%hist 90%68%+$396-$38,444241.3%9.9mo$-57,721 (vs do-nothing $-18,444)
$5013d30 Oct 2026$3.253/6$975$2,250$1,27048%100%hist 90%67%+$386-$29,028182.2%7.5mo$-53,305 (vs do-nothing $-14,028)
$506d23 Oct 2026$2.582/6$516$2,580$1,60245%100%hist 90%67%+$584-$19,486122.3%5.0mo$-48,763 (vs do-nothing $-9,486)
106 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellPer cycleIncome/moNet/moSurvivalTouchPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICRecoverTotal P&L @ SSWhy not eligible
$10013d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$14$-97399+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$14-$30,000188.3%7.7mo$-39,277 (vs do-nothing $-0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10020d6 Nov 2026$0.026/6$12$18$-96999+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$18-$29,994188.3%7.7mo$-39,271 (vs do-nothing +$6)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7613d30 Oct 2026$0.056/6$30$69$-91899+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$69-$44,376278.6%11.4mo$-53,653 (vs do-nothing $-14,376)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$786d23 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$30$-95799+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$28-$43,200271.2%11.1mo$-52,477 (vs do-nothing $-13,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7513d30 Oct 2026$0.056/6$30$69$-91899+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$68-$44,976282.3%11.6mo$-54,253 (vs do-nothing $-14,976)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$776d23 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$30$-95799+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$28-$43,800275.0%11.3mo$-53,077 (vs do-nothing $-13,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10027d13 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$7$-98099+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$6-$30,000188.3%7.7mo$-39,277 (vs do-nothing $-0)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$756d23 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$30$-95799+%hist 95%0%hist 4%100%+$26-$45,000282.5%11.6mo$-54,277 (vs do-nothing $-15,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9513d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$14$-97399+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$9-$33,000207.2%8.5mo$-42,277 (vs do-nothing $-3,000)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$746d23 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$30$-95799+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$25-$45,600286.3%11.7mo$-54,877 (vs do-nothing $-15,600)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9013d30 Oct 2026$0.026/6$12$28$-95999+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$23-$35,994226.0%9.3mo$-45,271 (vs do-nothing $-5,994)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8513d30 Oct 2026$0.036/6$18$42$-94699+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$36-$38,988244.7%10.0mo$-48,265 (vs do-nothing $-8,988)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$726d23 Oct 2026$0.026/6$12$60$-92799+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$54-$46,794293.7%12.0mo$-56,071 (vs do-nothing $-16,794)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8313d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$14$-97399+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$8-$40,200252.4%10.3mo$-49,477 (vs do-nothing $-10,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$716d23 Oct 2026$0.026/6$12$60$-92799+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$53-$47,394297.5%12.2mo$-56,671 (vs do-nothing $-17,394)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$706d23 Oct 2026$0.026/6$12$60$-92799+%hist 95%1%hist 4%100%+$52-$47,994301.3%12.3mo$-57,271 (vs do-nothing $-17,994)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8013d30 Oct 2026$0.046/6$24$55$-93299%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$48-$41,982263.5%10.8mo$-51,259 (vs do-nothing $-11,982)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9020d6 Nov 2026$0.046/6$24$36$-95199%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$26-$35,982225.9%9.2mo$-45,259 (vs do-nothing $-5,982)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9027d13 Nov 2026$0.056/6$30$33$-95499%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$26-$35,976225.8%9.2mo$-45,253 (vs do-nothing $-5,976)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$676d23 Oct 2026$0.036/6$18$90$-89799%hist 95%1%hist 4%99%+$77-$49,788312.5%12.8mo$-59,065 (vs do-nothing $-19,788)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7520d6 Nov 2026$0.116/6$66$99$-88899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$92-$44,940282.1%11.6mo$-54,217 (vs do-nothing $-14,940)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$666d23 Oct 2026$0.026/6$12$60$-92799%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$44-$50,394316.3%13.0mo$-59,671 (vs do-nothing $-20,394)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8520d6 Nov 2026$0.056/6$30$45$-94299%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$30-$38,976244.7%10.0mo$-48,253 (vs do-nothing $-8,976)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7420d6 Nov 2026$0.126/6$72$108$-87999%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$99-$45,534285.8%11.7mo$-54,811 (vs do-nothing $-15,534)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7413d30 Oct 2026$0.056/6$30$69$-91899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$54-$45,576286.1%11.7mo$-54,853 (vs do-nothing $-15,576)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$656d23 Oct 2026$0.036/6$18$90$-89799%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$71-$50,988320.1%13.1mo$-60,265 (vs do-nothing $-20,988)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7313d30 Oct 2026$0.016/6$6$14$-97399%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-4-$46,200290.0%11.9mo$-55,477 (vs do-nothing $-16,200)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8527d13 Nov 2026$0.106/6$60$67$-92099%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%+$52-$38,946244.5%10.0mo$-48,223 (vs do-nothing $-8,946)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8220d6 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$9$-97899%hist 95%2%hist 4%99%$-10-$40,800256.1%10.5mo$-50,077 (vs do-nothing $-10,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$646d23 Oct 2026$0.036/6$18$90$-89799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$65-$51,588323.8%13.3mo$-60,865 (vs do-nothing $-21,588)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8120d6 Nov 2026$0.026/6$12$18$-96999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%$-5-$41,394259.8%10.6mo$-50,671 (vs do-nothing $-11,394)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8327d13 Nov 2026$0.066/6$36$40$-94799%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$20-$40,170252.2%10.3mo$-49,447 (vs do-nothing $-10,170)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7820d6 Nov 2026$0.076/6$42$63$-92499%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$41-$43,164271.0%11.1mo$-52,441 (vs do-nothing $-13,164)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7113d30 Oct 2026$0.026/6$12$28$-95999%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$4-$47,394297.5%12.2mo$-56,671 (vs do-nothing $-17,394)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8227d13 Nov 2026$0.106/6$60$67$-92098%hist 95%3%hist 4%99%+$44-$40,746255.8%10.5mo$-50,023 (vs do-nothing $-10,746)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7720d6 Nov 2026$0.046/6$24$36$-95198%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$11-$43,782274.8%11.3mo$-53,059 (vs do-nothing $-13,782)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$636d23 Oct 2026$0.046/6$24$120$-86798%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$87-$52,182327.6%13.4mo$-61,459 (vs do-nothing $-22,182)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7013d30 Oct 2026$0.076/6$42$97$-89098%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$69-$47,964301.1%12.3mo$-57,241 (vs do-nothing $-17,964)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8020d6 Nov 2026$0.056/6$30$45$-94298%hist 95%3%hist 4%98%+$14-$41,976263.5%10.8mo$-51,253 (vs do-nothing $-11,976)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7620d6 Nov 2026$0.056/6$30$45$-94298%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$17-$44,376278.6%11.4mo$-53,653 (vs do-nothing $-14,376)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6913d30 Oct 2026$0.076/6$42$97$-89098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$64-$48,564304.9%12.5mo$-57,841 (vs do-nothing $-18,564)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8027d13 Nov 2026$0.126/6$72$80$-90798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$51-$41,934263.2%10.8mo$-51,211 (vs do-nothing $-11,934)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$626d23 Oct 2026$0.076/6$42$210$-77798%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$165-$52,764331.2%13.6mo$-62,041 (vs do-nothing $-22,764)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7927d13 Nov 2026$0.106/6$60$67$-92098%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$33-$42,546267.1%10.9mo$-51,823 (vs do-nothing $-12,546)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6813d30 Oct 2026$0.056/6$30$69$-91898%hist 95%4%hist 4%98%+$30-$49,176308.7%12.6mo$-58,453 (vs do-nothing $-19,176)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7827d13 Nov 2026$0.146/6$84$93$-89498%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$55-$43,122270.7%11.1mo$-52,399 (vs do-nothing $-13,122)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6713d30 Oct 2026$0.096/6$54$125$-86297%hist 95%5%hist 4%98%+$77-$49,752312.3%12.8mo$-59,029 (vs do-nothing $-19,752)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$616d23 Oct 2026$0.046/6$24$120$-86797%hist 95%5%hist 4%97%+$55-$53,382335.1%13.7mo$-62,659 (vs do-nothing $-23,382)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7220d6 Nov 2026$0.016/6$6$9$-97897%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%$-40-$46,800293.8%12.0mo$-56,077 (vs do-nothing $-16,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7627d13 Nov 2026$0.156/6$90$100$-88797%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$49-$44,316278.2%11.4mo$-53,593 (vs do-nothing $-14,316)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6613d30 Oct 2026$0.096/6$54$125$-86297%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%+$66-$50,352316.1%12.9mo$-59,629 (vs do-nothing $-20,352)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7120d6 Nov 2026$0.056/6$30$45$-94297%hist 95%6%hist 4%97%$-12-$47,376297.4%12.2mo$-56,653 (vs do-nothing $-17,376)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7527d13 Nov 2026$0.256/6$150$167$-82097%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$109-$44,856281.6%11.5mo$-54,133 (vs do-nothing $-14,856)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7020d6 Nov 2026$0.046/6$24$36$-95197%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%$-30-$47,982301.2%12.3mo$-57,259 (vs do-nothing $-17,982)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6513d30 Oct 2026$0.156/6$90$208$-77996%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$135-$50,916319.6%13.1mo$-60,193 (vs do-nothing $-20,916)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7427d13 Nov 2026$0.236/6$138$153$-83496%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$86-$45,468285.4%11.7mo$-54,745 (vs do-nothing $-15,468)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$606d23 Oct 2026$0.136/6$78$390$-59796%hist 95%7%hist 4%97%+$294-$53,928338.5%13.9mo$-63,205 (vs do-nothing $-23,928)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6920d6 Nov 2026$0.116/6$66$99$-88896%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$21-$48,540304.7%12.5mo$-57,817 (vs do-nothing $-18,540)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7327d13 Nov 2026$0.146/6$84$93$-89496%hist 95%8%hist 4%96%+$16-$46,122289.5%11.9mo$-55,399 (vs do-nothing $-16,122)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6413d30 Oct 2026$0.166/6$96$222$-76696%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$129-$51,510323.4%13.2mo$-60,787 (vs do-nothing $-21,510)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7227d13 Nov 2026$0.186/6$108$120$-86796%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$30-$46,698293.1%12.0mo$-55,975 (vs do-nothing $-16,698)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6820d6 Nov 2026$0.206/6$120$180$-80796%hist 95%9%hist 4%96%+$88-$49,086308.1%12.6mo$-58,363 (vs do-nothing $-19,086)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$596d23 Oct 2026$0.156/6$90$450$-53795%hist 95%10%hist 4%95%+$303-$54,516342.2%14.0mo$-63,793 (vs do-nothing $-24,516)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7127d13 Nov 2026$0.216/6$126$140$-84795%hist 95%10%hist 14%95%+$36-$47,280296.8%12.2mo$-56,557 (vs do-nothing $-17,280)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6720d6 Nov 2026$0.266/6$156$234$-75395%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$125-$49,650311.7%12.8mo$-58,927 (vs do-nothing $-19,650)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6313d30 Oct 2026$0.206/6$120$277$-71095%hist 95%11%hist 14%95%+$158-$52,086327.0%13.4mo$-61,363 (vs do-nothing $-22,086)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7027d13 Nov 2026$0.356/6$210$233$-75494%hist 95%12%hist 14%95%+$112-$47,796300.0%12.3mo$-57,073 (vs do-nothing $-17,796)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6520d6 Nov 2026$0.356/6$210$315$-67294%hist 95%12%hist 14%95%+$196-$50,796318.9%13.1mo$-60,073 (vs do-nothing $-20,796)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6620d6 Nov 2026$0.316/6$186$279$-70894%hist 95%12%hist 14%94%+$148-$50,220315.3%12.9mo$-59,497 (vs do-nothing $-20,220)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6213d30 Oct 2026$0.226/6$132$305$-68294%hist 95%13%hist 14%94%+$149-$52,674330.7%13.5mo$-61,951 (vs do-nothing $-22,674)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6927d13 Nov 2026$0.436/6$258$287$-70094%hist 95%13%hist 14%94%+$146-$48,348303.5%12.4mo$-57,625 (vs do-nothing $-18,348)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$586d23 Oct 2026$0.226/6$132$660$-32793%hist 95%14%hist 14%94%+$429-$55,074345.7%14.2mo$-64,351 (vs do-nothing $-25,074)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6827d13 Nov 2026$0.506/6$300$333$-65493%hist 95%15%hist 14%93%+$169-$48,906307.0%12.6mo$-58,183 (vs do-nothing $-18,906)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6113d30 Oct 2026$0.306/6$180$415$-57292%hist 95%16%hist 14%93%+$209-$53,226334.1%13.7mo$-62,503 (vs do-nothing $-23,226)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6420d6 Nov 2026$0.406/6$240$360$-62792%hist 95%16%hist 14%93%+$168-$51,366322.4%13.2mo$-60,643 (vs do-nothing $-21,366)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6727d13 Nov 2026$0.556/6$330$367$-62092%hist 95%17%hist 14%93%+$174-$49,476310.6%12.7mo$-58,753 (vs do-nothing $-19,476)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6627d13 Nov 2026$0.456/6$270$300$-68791%hist 95%19%hist 14%92%+$74-$50,136314.7%12.9mo$-59,413 (vs do-nothing $-20,136)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6320d6 Nov 2026$0.336/6$198$297$-69091%hist 95%19%hist 14%92%+$63-$52,008326.5%13.4mo$-61,285 (vs do-nothing $-22,008)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$576d23 Oct 2026$0.286/6$168$840$-14791%hist 95%19%hist 14%92%+$472-$55,638349.3%14.3mo$-64,915 (vs do-nothing $-25,638)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6013d30 Oct 2026$0.416/6$246$568$-41991%hist 95%20%hist 14%91%+$291-$53,760337.5%13.8mo$-63,037 (vs do-nothing $-23,760)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6220d6 Nov 2026$0.546/6$324$486$-50190%hist 95%21%hist 24%91%+$232-$52,482329.5%13.5mo$-61,759 (vs do-nothing $-22,482)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6527d13 Nov 2026$0.646/6$384$427$-56090%hist 86%21%hist 24%91%+$161-$50,622317.8%13.0mo$-59,899 (vs do-nothing $-20,622)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6427d13 Nov 2026$0.826/6$492$547$-44089%hist 86%24%hist 24%90%+$234-$51,114320.9%13.1mo$-60,391 (vs do-nothing $-21,114)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5913d30 Oct 2026$0.306/6$180$415$-57288%hist 86%24%hist 24%89%+$37-$54,426341.7%14.0mo$-63,703 (vs do-nothing $-24,426)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6120d6 Nov 2026$0.636/6$378$567$-42088%hist 86%26%hist 24%89%+$216-$53,028332.9%13.6mo$-62,305 (vs do-nothing $-23,028)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6327d13 Nov 2026$0.876/6$522$580$-40787%hist 86%27%hist 24%89%+$211-$51,684324.4%13.3mo$-60,961 (vs do-nothing $-21,684)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$566d23 Oct 2026$0.476/6$282$1,410$42387%hist 86%26%hist 24%89%+$822-$56,124352.3%14.4mo$-65,401 (vs do-nothing $-26,124)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6020d6 Nov 2026$0.776/6$462$693$-29486%hist 86%30%hist 24%88%+$261-$53,544336.1%13.8mo$-62,821 (vs do-nothing $-23,544)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5813d30 Oct 2026$0.626/6$372$858$-12986%hist 86%30%hist 24%87%+$346-$54,834344.2%14.1mo$-64,111 (vs do-nothing $-24,834)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6227d13 Nov 2026$1.056/6$630$700$-28786%hist 86%31%hist 32%88%+$265-$52,176327.5%13.4mo$-61,453 (vs do-nothing $-22,176)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6127d13 Nov 2026$1.206/6$720$800$-18784%hist 86%34%hist 32%86%+$288-$52,686330.7%13.5mo$-61,963 (vs do-nothing $-22,686)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5920d6 Nov 2026$0.926/6$552$828$-15984%hist 86%34%hist 32%86%+$296-$54,054339.3%13.9mo$-63,331 (vs do-nothing $-24,054)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$556d23 Oct 2026$0.636/6$378$1,890$90382%hist 86%36%hist 32%86%+$960-$56,628355.5%14.6mo$-65,905 (vs do-nothing $-26,628)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5713d30 Oct 2026$0.806/6$480$1,108$12182%hist 86%37%hist 32%85%+$421-$55,326347.3%14.2mo$-64,603 (vs do-nothing $-25,326)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$6027d13 Nov 2026$1.376/6$822$913$-7482%hist 86%39%hist 32%85%+$310-$53,184333.9%13.7mo$-62,461 (vs do-nothing $-23,184)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5820d6 Nov 2026$1.116/6$666$999$1281%hist 86%40%hist 32%84%+$345-$54,540342.4%14.0mo$-63,817 (vs do-nothing $-24,540)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5927d13 Nov 2026$1.506/6$900$1,000$1380%hist 82%44%hist 42%83%+$290-$53,706337.1%13.8mo$-62,983 (vs do-nothing $-23,706)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5613d30 Oct 2026$1.016/6$606$1,398$41179%hist 82%44%hist 42%83%+$490-$55,800350.3%14.3mo$-65,077 (vs do-nothing $-25,800)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5720d6 Nov 2026$1.336/6$798$1,197$21078%hist 82%46%hist 42%82%+$401-$55,008345.3%14.1mo$-64,285 (vs do-nothing $-25,008)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5827d13 Nov 2026$1.746/6$1,044$1,160$17377%hist 82%49%hist 42%82%+$327-$54,162340.0%13.9mo$-63,439 (vs do-nothing $-24,162)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5620d6 Nov 2026$1.596/6$954$1,431$44475%hist 82%53%hist 45%80%+$451-$55,452348.1%14.3mo$-64,729 (vs do-nothing $-25,452)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5513d30 Oct 2026$1.276/6$762$1,758$77175%hist 82%53%hist 45%80%+$572-$56,244353.1%14.5mo$-65,521 (vs do-nothing $-26,244)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5727d13 Nov 2026$1.996/6$1,194$1,327$34075%hist 82%54%hist 45%80%+$350-$54,612342.8%14.0mo$-63,889 (vs do-nothing $-24,612)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5627d13 Nov 2026$2.156/6$1,290$1,433$44673%hist 82%58%hist 45%80%+$445-$55,116346.0%14.2mo$-64,393 (vs do-nothing $-25,116)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5520d6 Nov 2026$1.876/6$1,122$1,683$69671%hist 82%60%hist 57%78%+$489-$55,884350.8%14.4mo$-65,161 (vs do-nothing $-25,884)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$5527d13 Nov 2026$2.526/6$1,512$1,680$69370%hist 64%65%hist 57%78%+$514-$55,494348.4%14.3mo$-64,771 (vs do-nothing $-25,494)50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-10-17 03:18