FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB @ $90.51

BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.32 | 6 contracts (600 sh) | 2026-07-07 21:39 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RKLB @ $90.51 UNDERWATER $51.04 (36.1% below BE SS)

6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $148.32 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $115 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $75.947/sh)

SP: $135 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $49.982/sh)

HP: $45 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.597/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$69,930	(ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600
Normal income ref	$6,088/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$281/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-36,072	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,044/mo

HEDGE COVER
$281/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,088/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $15,930

ML VELOCITY
11.5 mo to earn back $69,930

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $148.32 (probe: $150C 17d) brings only $127/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 24 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $138.60 (+53%) · daily UBB $118.70 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 6 contracts at $101 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 85%, breach 15%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,044/mo); it brings $3,120/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 6 × $96/3d for $7,080/mo, but breach risk rises to 27% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $115/3d (99+% survival, $320/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $28,079 (176% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $142, recoverable in 4.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 6 contracts realizes $-36,120 and cuts bleed by $281/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 6 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 6 × $101 (primary), 85% survival, breach 15%, $3,120/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $103 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 89% (breach 15% → 11%) for $840/mo less (27% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

RKLB spot $90.51

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	4 × $115	10 Jul	3d	27.1%	99+%	0%	$320	-$2,800	$13,295
🛡 safe yield	6 × $105	10 Jul	3d	16.0%	91%	9%	$1,620	-$1,500	$25,829
33% normal	6 × $103	10 Jul	3d	13.8%	89%	11%	$2,280	-$840	$26,963
🎯 50% normal	6 × $101	10 Jul	3d	11.6%	85%	15%	$3,120	—	$28,079
100% normal	6 × $96	10 Jul	3d	6.1%	73%	27%	$7,080	+$3,960	$30,683
📅 next weekly	6 × $101	17 Jul	10d	11.6%	77%	23%	$3,294	+$174	$27,293

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RKLB are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 6×$101, 11.6% OTM, 85% surv

Sell 6 × $101 11.6% OTM over spot $90.51 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.60 mid)

= $312 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,120/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $101.60)

86%

EV / mo

$-181

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.9] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,548

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,019

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$118 @ 83% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.14/sh now → $2.22 mid-life (likely $2.24–$4.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 546 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $104 (overshoots $3.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.36/sh	+$1,417 cycle +$1,729 [+$1,291…+$1,580] · 100% credit	65% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$111	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.84/sh	+$505 cycle +$817 [-$16…+$598] · 74% credit	77% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$108	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$55 cycle +$367 [-$450…+$121] · 36% credit	76% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$114	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.08/sh	+$47 cycle +$359 [-$631…+$107] · 33% credit	79% surv 77%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$118	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.51/sh	-$309 cycle +$3 [-$1,117…-$272] · 6% credit	83% surv 81%
budget: banked $312 debit $309 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,916/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,120/mo
vs 50% target ($3,044/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($6,088/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,839/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $101 is $47 below CC-SS $148.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$28,079
… as % of IC ($15,930)	176.3%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	40.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.6 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-36,120

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $101.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $100-101.60	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $101.60	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$101.00 (1.3σ)	$312	$-29,214	+$6,858	+$264
+2.5%	$103.52 (1.6σ)	$-1,203	$-29,154	+$6,918	-$1,251
+5%	$106.05 (1.9σ)	$-2,718	$-29,093	+$6,979	-$2,766
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.2σ)	$-24,018	$-28,241	+$7,831	-$23,136

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,072

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,072

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $101): -$28,079

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,079 (+$7,993 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,136, the opportunity cost of earning $3,120/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$22,248, position total $-28,312 (+$7,760 vs today)

🛡 safe yield · sell 6×$105, 16.0% OTM, 91% surv

Sell 6 × $105 16.0% OTM over spot $90.51 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.31 mid)

= $162 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,620/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $105)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $105.31)

92%

EV / mo

+$57

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.5-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,792

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,221

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$120 @ 81% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $3.26/sh now → $2.31 mid-life (likely $2.30–$4.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 256 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $109 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$105	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.37/sh	+$1,420 cycle +$1,582 [+$1,399…+$1,671] · 100% credit	65% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$116	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.47/sh	+$282 cycle +$444 [-$256…+$386] · 60% credit	77% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$112	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$49 cycle +$211 [-$416…+$132] · 42% credit	76% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$118	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.08/sh	+$45 cycle +$207 [-$568…+$128] · 41% credit	79% surv 76%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$120	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.22/sh	-$129 cycle +$33 [-$799…-$61] · 19% credit	81% surv 79%
budget: banked $162 debit $129 (80% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,352/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,620/mo
vs 50% target ($3,044/mo)	-47%
vs normal income ($6,088/mo)	27% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,339/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $105 is $43 below CC-SS $148.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,829
… as % of IC ($15,930)	162.1%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	36.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.2 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-36,093

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $105.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $104-105.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $105.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$105.00 (1.8σ)	$162	$-26,868	+$9,204	+$114
+2.5%	$107.62 (2.1σ)	$-1,413	$-26,805	+$9,267	-$1,461
+5%	$110.25 (2.4σ)	$-2,988	$-26,742	+$9,330	-$3,036
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.2σ)	$-21,768	$-25,991	+$10,081	-$20,886

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,072

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,072

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $105): -$25,829

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,829 (+$10,243 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,886, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,998, position total $-26,062 (+$10,010 vs today)

33% normal · sell 6×$103, 13.8% OTM, 89% surv

Sell 6 × $103 13.8% OTM over spot $90.51 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.43 mid)

= $228 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,280/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $103.44)

89%

EV / mo

+$4

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.7] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,849

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,129

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$118 @ 81% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $3.20/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.15–$4.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 352 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $107 (overshoots $3.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.37/sh	+$1,419 cycle +$1,647 [+$1,291…+$1,589] · 100% credit	65% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$113	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.85/sh	+$510 cycle +$738 [-$18…+$637] · 75% credit	77% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$110	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.09/sh	+$52 cycle +$280 [-$449…+$155] · 41% credit	76% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$116	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.08/sh	+$46 cycle +$274 [-$648…+$151] · 39% credit	79% surv 76%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$118	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.21/sh	-$127 cycle +$101 [-$882…-$29] · 22% credit	81% surv 79%
budget: banked $228 debit $127 (56% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$101 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,307/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,280/mo
vs 50% target ($3,044/mo)	-25%
vs normal income ($6,088/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,999/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $103 is $45 below CC-SS $148.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,963
… as % of IC ($15,930)	169.3%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	38.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.4 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-36,105

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $103.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $102-103.44	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $103.44	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$103.00 (1.5σ)	$228	$-28,050	+$8,022	+$180
+2.5%	$105.57 (1.8σ)	$-1,317	$-27,988	+$8,084	-$1,365
+5%	$108.15 (2.1σ)	$-2,862	$-27,927	+$8,145	-$2,910
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.2σ)	$-22,902	$-27,125	+$8,947	-$22,020

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,072

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,072

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $103): -$26,963

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,963 (+$9,109 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,020, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,132, position total $-27,196 (+$8,876 vs today)

100% normal · sell 6×$96, 6.1% OTM, 73% surv

Sell 6 × $96 6.1% OTM over spot $90.51 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.26 mid)

= $708 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,080/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $97.26)

76%

EV / mo

$-979

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-5.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~20.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,732

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

36%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$557

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$121 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $2.98/sh now → $2.11 mid-life (likely $2.49–$4.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,069 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $99 (overshoots $3.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.34/sh	+$1,407 cycle +$2,115 [+$1,273…+$1,554] · 100% credit	65% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$106	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.81/sh	+$489 cycle +$1,197 [-$142…+$463] · 68% credit	77% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$103	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.10/sh	+$58 cycle +$766 [-$538…+$10] · 26% credit	77% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$109	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.07/sh	+$43 cycle +$751 [-$751…-$41] · 23% credit	80% surv 77%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$121	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.16/sh	-$699 cycle +$9 [-$1,775…-$875]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $708 debit $699 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $1,061/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,080/mo
vs 50% target ($3,044/mo)	+133%
vs normal income ($6,088/mo)	116% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,799/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $96 is $52 below CC-SS $148.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,683
… as % of IC ($15,930)	192.6%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	43.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.0 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-36,120

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.18 collected) or spot ≥ $97.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-97.26	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.26	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$708	$-31,938	+$4,134	+$660
+2.5%	$98.40 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-732	$-31,881	+$4,191	-$780
+5%	$100.80 (1.2σ)	$-2,172	$-31,823	+$4,249	-$2,220
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.2σ)	$-26,622	$-30,845	+$5,227	-$25,740

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,072

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,072

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $96): -$30,683

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,683 (+$5,389 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,740, the opportunity cost of earning $7,080/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,852, position total $-30,916 (+$5,156 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 4×$115, 27.1% OTM, 99+% surv

Sell 4 × $115 27.1% OTM over spot $90.51 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.10 mid)

= $32 credit for the 3d cycle → $320/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $115.09)

99+%

EV / mo

+$311

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-5.2] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,265

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$978

Free roll-up

+$7/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$128 @ 79% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.57/sh now → $2.52 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.35/sh	+$941 cycle +$973	65% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$122	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$14 cycle +$46	76% surv 70%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$128	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.04/sh	+$18 cycle +$50	79% surv 75%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$320/mo
vs 50% target ($3,044/mo)	-89%
vs normal income ($6,088/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$87/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $115 is $33 below CC-SS $148.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,295
… as % of IC ($15,930)	83.5%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	19.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-24,054

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $115.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $113.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $114-115.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $115.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$115.00 (3.0σ)	$32	$-20,742	+$15,330	+$0
+2.5%	$117.87 (3.3σ)	$-1,118	$-20,098	+$15,974	-$1,150
+5%	$120.75 (3.7σ)	$-2,268	$-19,454	+$16,618	-$2,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.2σ)	$-10,588	$-15,105	+$20,967	-$10,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $148.32, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,072

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,072

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $115): -$13,295

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $140): -$1,648

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,943 (+$21,129 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,943 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,000, the opportunity cost of earning $320/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,408, position total $-15,456 (+$20,616 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.040 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$36,072 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,943

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$101	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.52	6/6	$3,120	$2,839	85%	86%	$-181	-$28,079	176.3%	$-28,079 (vs do-nothing $-23,136)
$100	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.62	5/6	$3,100	$2,843	83%	85%	$-205	-$23,849	149.7%	$-24,673 (vs do-nothing $-19,730)
$99	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.72	5/6	$3,600	$3,343	81%	83%	$-362	-$24,299	152.5%	$-25,123 (vs do-nothing $-20,180)
$98	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.85	4/6	$3,400	$3,167	78%	81%	$-390	-$19,787	124.2%	$-21,435 (vs do-nothing $-16,492)
$101	10d	17 Jul 2026	$1.83	6/6	$3,294	$3,013	77%	80%	+$135	-$27,293	171.3%	$-27,293 (vs do-nothing $-22,350)
$97	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.00	4/6	$4,000	$3,767	76%	79%	$-519	-$20,127	126.3%	$-21,775 (vs do-nothing $-16,832)
$100	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.04	5/6	$3,060	$2,803	75%	79%	+$125	-$23,139	145.3%	$-23,963 (vs do-nothing $-19,020)
$99	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.14	5/6	$3,210	$2,953	73%	77%	$-59	-$23,589	148.1%	$-24,413 (vs do-nothing $-19,470)
$101	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.00	6/6	$3,176	$2,895	73%	78%	+$15	-$26,591	166.9%	$-26,591 (vs do-nothing $-21,648)
$96	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.18	3/6	$3,540	$3,331	73%	76%	$-490	-$15,341	96.3%	$-17,813 (vs do-nothing $-12,870)
$100	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	6/6	$3,282	$3,001	72%	77%	$-145	-$27,131	170.3%	$-27,131 (vs do-nothing $-22,188)
$98	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.40	5/6	$3,600	$3,343	71%	76%	$-35	-$23,959	150.4%	$-24,783 (vs do-nothing $-19,840)
$99	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	6/6	$3,494	$3,213	70%	76%	$-217	-$27,611	173.3%	$-27,611 (vs do-nothing $-22,668)

Show 22 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$95	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.36	3/6	$4,080	$3,871	69%	74%	$-694	-$15,587	97.8%	$-18,059 (vs do-nothing $-13,116)
$97	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.61	4/6	$3,132	$2,899	69%	75%	$-97	-$19,483	122.3%	$-21,131 (vs do-nothing $-16,188)
$98	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.55	5/6	$3,132	$2,875	68%	74%	$-213	-$23,384	146.8%	$-24,208 (vs do-nothing $-19,265)
$96	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.86	4/6	$3,432	$3,199	67%	73%	$-148	-$19,783	124.2%	$-21,431 (vs do-nothing $-16,488)
$97	17d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/6	$3,353	$3,096	67%	73%	$-262	-$23,759	149.1%	$-24,583 (vs do-nothing $-19,640)
$94	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.55	2/6	$3,100	$2,915	66%	72%	$-656	-$10,554	66.2%	$-13,849 (vs do-nothing $-8,906)
$96	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	5/6	$3,706	$3,449	65%	72%	$-196	-$24,059	151.0%	$-24,883 (vs do-nothing $-19,940)
$95	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.10	4/6	$3,720	$3,487	65%	72%	$-243	-$20,087	126.1%	$-21,735 (vs do-nothing $-16,792)
$95	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	4/6	$3,106	$2,873	63%	71%	$-261	-$19,567	122.8%	$-21,215 (vs do-nothing $-16,272)
$94	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.40	3/6	$3,060	$2,851	62%	70%	$-224	-$15,275	95.9%	$-17,747 (vs do-nothing $-12,804)
$93	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.79	2/6	$3,580	$3,395	62%	69%	$-832	-$10,706	67.2%	$-14,001 (vs do-nothing $-9,058)
$94	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/6	$3,282	$3,049	61%	70%	$-344	-$19,867	124.7%	$-21,515 (vs do-nothing $-16,572)
$93	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.95	4/6	$3,494	$3,261	59%	69%	$-407	-$20,147	126.5%	$-21,795 (vs do-nothing $-16,852)
$92	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.11	2/6	$4,220	$4,035	58%	67%	$-939	-$10,842	68.1%	$-14,137 (vs do-nothing $-9,194)
$92	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	4/6	$3,776	$3,543	57%	68%	$-416	-$20,387	128.0%	$-22,035 (vs do-nothing $-17,092)
$91	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	3/6	$3,044	$2,835	55%	67%	$-331	-$15,470	97.1%	$-17,942 (vs do-nothing $-12,999)
$91	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.37	2/6	$4,740	$4,555	54%	64%	$-1,262	-$10,990	69.0%	$-14,285 (vs do-nothing $-9,342)
$90	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	3/6	$3,335	$3,126	53%	66%	$-284	-$15,605	98.0%	$-18,077 (vs do-nothing $-13,134)
$90	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.85	3/6	$4,365	$4,156	52%	65%	$-440	-$16,040	100.7%	$-18,512 (vs do-nothing $-13,569)
$89	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.45	3/6	$3,415	$3,206	51%	65%	$-461	-$15,860	99.6%	$-18,332 (vs do-nothing $-13,389)
$90	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.79	2/6	$5,580	$5,395	50%	62%	$-1,365	-$11,106	69.7%	$-14,401 (vs do-nothing $-9,458)
$89	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.10	1/6	$3,100	$2,939	46%	60%	$-895	-$5,622	35.3%	$-9,741 (vs do-nothing $-4,798)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 21:39