6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $149.03 (banked floor $145.53) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $3,801/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $204/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-50,484 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 28 Aug 2026 · 3d | 6 × $75 | 86% | $1,980 | $1,647 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 4 Sep 2026 · 10d | 6 × $75 | 76% | $2,160 | $-94 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $84 | 28 Aug | 3d | 21.4% | 98%hist 96% | 4%hist 3% | +1pp | $25 | $250 | -$1,730 | $32,491 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $84 21.4% OTM over spot $69.21 28 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid) = $25 credit for the 3d cycle → $250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $84) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $84.06) 98% EV / mo +$171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 24% whole by 9mo vs 22% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $21/mo median; plan ~$14/mo after 68% keep · $151 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.3 mo [2.8-5.9], measured ONLY among the 24% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$734 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $96 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.15/sh now → $1.52 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $84 is $65 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $84.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $84): -$32,491 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $105): -$4,395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,460 (+$14,024 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,515, the opportunity cost of earning $250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,970, position total $-39,917 (+$10,567 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $78 | 28 Aug | 3d | 12.7% | 93%hist 96% | 13%hist 13% | +2pp | $84 | $840 | -$1,140 | $42,536 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $78 12.7% OTM over spot $69.21 28 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid) = $84 credit for the 3d cycle → $840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $78) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $78.16) 94% EV / mo +$315 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 28% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $418/mo median; plan ~$284/mo after 68% keep · $3,067 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [2.9-5.9], measured ONLY among the 28% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$762 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $91 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.99/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.31–$2.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 147 simulated challenges: the $78 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $80 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $78 is $71 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $78.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $78)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $78): -$42,536 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,109 (+$8,375 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,164, the opportunity cost of earning $840/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,310, position total $-44,265 (+$6,219 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $76 | 28 Aug | 3d | 9.8% | 89%hist 85% | 22%hist 26% | +5pp | $150 | $1,500 | -$480 | $43,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $76 9.8% OTM over spot $69.21 28 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $150 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $76) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $76.29) 90% EV / mo +$439 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $771/mo median; plan ~$524/mo after 68% keep · $5,986 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.8-6.9], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$674 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $90 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $1.34–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $76 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $78 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $76 is $73 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $76.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $76)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $76): -$43,670 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,243 (+$7,241 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,298, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,444, position total $-45,399 (+$5,085 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $75 | 28 Aug | 3d | 8.4% | 86%hist 85% | 29%hist 26% | +6pp | $198 | $1,980 | — | $44,222 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 8.4% OTM over spot $69.21 28 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.36 mid) = $198 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,980/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $75.36) 87% EV / mo +$464 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 17% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $982/mo median; plan ~$668/mo after 68% keep · $7,826 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.5 mo [3.3-6.9], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$615 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $90 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.92/sh now → $1.36 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 505 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $77 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $75.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$44,222 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,795 (+$6,689 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,980/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,996, position total $-45,951 (+$4,533 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $72 | 28 Aug | 3d | 4.0% | 72%hist 84% | 58%hist 43% | +6pp | $400 | $4,000 | +$2,020 | $38,116 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $72 4.0% OTM over spot $69.21 28 Aug 2026 (3d, $0.85 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $72) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $72.85) 77% EV / mo +$397 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 25% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,572/mo median; plan ~$1,069/mo after 68% keep · $12,472 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.1 mo [3.0-6.4], measured ONLY among the 25% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$251 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $93 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.56–$2.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,158 simulated challenges: the $72 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $74 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $72 is $77 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $72.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $72)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $72): -$38,116 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $105): -$4,395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,085 (+$8,399 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,140, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,595, position total $-45,542 (+$4,942 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $90 | 4 Sep | 10d | 30.0% | 99%hist 96% | 3%hist 3% | +1pp | $70 | $210 | -$1,950 | $29,446 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $90 30.0% OTM over spot $69.21 4 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.17 mid) = $70 credit for the 10d cycle → $210/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $90.17) 99% EV / mo +$188 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 14% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-43/mo median; plan ~$-29/mo after 68% keep · $-386 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.3 mo, measured ONLY among the 14% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,493 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $94 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.42/sh now → $3.13 mid-life (likely $2.03–$3.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 58 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 10, at $92 (overshoots $1.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $59 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $90.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$29,446 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $105): -$4,395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,415 (+$17,069 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,470, the opportunity cost of earning $210/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$925, position total $-36,872 (+$13,612 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $82 | 4 Sep | 10d | 18.5% | 91%hist 96% | 19%hist 13% | +1pp | $234 | $702 | -$1,458 | $39,986 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $82 18.5% OTM over spot $69.21 4 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.43 mid) = $234 credit for the 10d cycle → $702/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $82) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $82.42) 91% EV / mo +$240 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 22% whole by 9mo vs 21% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $262/mo median; plan ~$178/mo after 68% keep · $2,088 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [3.2-6.8], measured ONLY among the 22% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,474 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $87 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $2.42–$4.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $82 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $84 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $82 is $67 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $82.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $82)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $82): -$39,986 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,559 (+$10,925 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,614, the opportunity cost of earning $702/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,760, position total $-41,715 (+$8,769 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $77 | 4 Sep | 10d | 11.3% | 82%hist 85% | 38%hist 31% | +3pp | $430 | $1,290 | -$870 | $35,586 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $77 11.3% OTM over spot $69.21 4 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.95 mid) = $430 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $77) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $77.95) 84% EV / mo +$264 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 18% whole by 9mo vs 14% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $463/mo median; plan ~$315/mo after 68% keep · $3,992 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.4 mo [3.2-7.2], measured ONLY among the 18% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$907 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $85 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.78/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $2.57–$4.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 811 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $79 (overshoots $1.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $77 is $72 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $77.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $77)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $77): -$35,586 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $105): -$4,395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,555 (+$10,929 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,610, the opportunity cost of earning $1,290/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,065, position total $-43,012 (+$7,472 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $75 | 4 Sep | 10d | 8.4% | 76%hist 84% | 50%hist 43% | +3pp | $720 | $2,160 | — | $43,700 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $75 8.4% OTM over spot $69.21 4 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.30 mid) = $720 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $75) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $76.31) 80% EV / mo +$347 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 20% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $740/mo median; plan ~$503/mo after 68% keep · $6,224 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.7 mo [3.5-6.8], measured ONLY among the 20% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$843 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $85 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.79–$4.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,179 simulated challenges: the $75 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $77 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $75 is $74 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $76.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $75)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $75): -$43,700 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,273 (+$7,211 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,328, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,474, position total $-45,429 (+$5,055 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $71 | 4 Sep | 10d | 2.6% | 61%hist 66% | 82%hist 79% | +4pp | $1,362 | $4,086 | +$1,926 | $45,458 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $71 2.6% OTM over spot $69.21 4 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.45 mid) = $1,362 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,086/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $71) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $73.44) 71% EV / mo +$297 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 23% whole by 9mo vs 18% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~8.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,089/mo median; plan ~$741/mo after 68% keep · $9,153 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~5.6 mo [3.9-6.6], measured ONLY among the 23% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$117 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 18 Sep 2026) $87 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.49/sh now → $2.47 mid-life (likely $3.25–$4.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,052 simulated challenges: the $71 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $73 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $71 is $78 below CC-SS $149.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.27 collected) or spot ≥ $73.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $71)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $86.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $149.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-50,484 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$50,911 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $71): -$45,458 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,031 (+$5,453 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-25,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,086, the opportunity cost of earning $4,086/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $91.99 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,232, position total $-47,187 (+$3,297 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.063 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$50,911 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-25,945
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $75 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.33 | 6/6 | $1,980 | $1,776 | 86% | 87% | +$464 | -$44,222 | 277.6% | $-43,795 (vs do-nothing $-17,850) |
| $74 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 5/6 | $2,200 | $2,010 | 82% | 84% | +$395 | -$37,296 | 234.1% | $-41,265 (vs do-nothing $-15,320) |
| $73 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.56 | 4/6 | $2,240 | $2,064 | 77% | 81% | +$190 | -$30,189 | 189.5% | $-38,553 (vs do-nothing $-12,608) |
| $75 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.20 | 6/6 | $2,160 | $1,956 | 76% | 80% | +$347 | -$43,700 | 274.3% | $-43,273 (vs do-nothing $-17,328) |
| $74 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.40 | 5/6 | $2,100 | $1,910 | 73% | 78% | +$273 | -$36,816 | 231.1% | $-40,785 (vs do-nothing $-14,840) |
| $75 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.85 | 6/6 | $1,959 | $1,755 | 72% | 77% | +$214 | -$43,310 | 271.9% | $-42,883 (vs do-nothing $-16,938) |
| $72 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 3/6 | $2,400 | $2,238 | 72% | 77% | +$238 | -$22,870 | 143.6% | $-35,629 (vs do-nothing $-9,684) |
| $75 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.64 | 6/6 | $1,980 | $1,776 | 70% | 76% | +$275 | -$42,836 | 268.9% | $-42,409 (vs do-nothing $-16,464) |
| $74 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.04 | 6/6 | $2,160 | $1,956 | 69% | 76% | +$152 | -$43,796 | 274.9% | $-43,369 (vs do-nothing $-17,424) |
| $73 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.65 | 4/6 | $1,980 | $1,804 | 69% | 75% | +$218 | -$29,753 | 186.8% | $-38,117 (vs do-nothing $-12,172) |
| $74 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.90 | 6/6 | $2,175 | $1,971 | 67% | 75% | +$257 | -$43,280 | 271.7% | $-42,853 (vs do-nothing $-16,908) |
| $73 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.35 | 5/6 | $2,074 | $1,883 | 66% | 74% | +$152 | -$36,841 | 231.3% | $-40,810 (vs do-nothing $-14,865) |
| $71 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 2/6 | $2,100 | $1,952 | 65% | 72% | +$103 | -$15,397 | 96.7% | $-32,551 (vs do-nothing $-6,606) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $72 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.95 | 4/6 | $2,340 | $2,164 | 65% | 73% | +$226 | -$30,033 | 188.5% | $-38,397 (vs do-nothing $-12,452) |
| $73 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 5/6 | $1,969 | $1,779 | 65% | 73% | +$175 | -$36,441 | 228.8% | $-40,410 (vs do-nothing $-14,465) |
| $72 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.66 | 5/6 | $2,347 | $2,157 | 63% | 72% | +$77 | -$37,186 | 233.4% | $-41,155 (vs do-nothing $-15,210) |
| $72 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.50 | 5/6 | $2,188 | $1,997 | 62% | 72% | +$177 | -$36,766 | 230.8% | $-40,735 (vs do-nothing $-14,790) |
| $71 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.27 | 3/6 | $2,043 | $1,881 | 61% | 71% | +$149 | -$22,729 | 142.7% | $-35,488 (vs do-nothing $-9,543) |
| $71 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 4/6 | $2,118 | $1,942 | 59% | 70% | +$34 | -$30,013 | 188.4% | $-38,377 (vs do-nothing $-12,432) |
| $71 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.85 | 4/6 | $1,925 | $1,749 | 59% | 70% | +$127 | -$29,673 | 186.3% | $-38,037 (vs do-nothing $-12,092) |
| $70 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 2/6 | $2,560 | $2,412 | 58% | 68% | $-157 | -$15,551 | 97.6% | $-32,705 (vs do-nothing $-6,760) |
| $70 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.30 | 4/6 | $2,150 | $1,974 | 56% | 69% | +$145 | -$29,893 | 187.7% | $-38,257 (vs do-nothing $-12,312) |
| $70 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.63 | 3/6 | $2,367 | $2,205 | 56% | 68% | +$116 | -$22,921 | 143.9% | $-35,680 (vs do-nothing $-9,735) |
| $70 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.35 | 4/6 | $2,365 | $2,189 | 56% | 68% | $-15 | -$30,273 | 190.0% | $-38,637 (vs do-nothing $-12,692) |
| $69 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.65 | 4/6 | $2,325 | $2,149 | 53% | 67% | +$95 | -$30,153 | 189.3% | $-38,517 (vs do-nothing $-12,572) |
| $69 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 3/6 | $2,012 | $1,850 | 52% | 66% | $-17 | -$22,870 | 143.6% | $-35,629 (vs do-nothing $-9,684) |
| $69 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 3/6 | $2,700 | $2,538 | 51% | 66% | +$42 | -$23,110 | 145.1% | $-35,869 (vs do-nothing $-9,924) |
| $68 | 24d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.15 | 3/6 | $1,931 | $1,769 | 50% | 66% | +$75 | -$22,765 | 142.9% | $-35,524 (vs do-nothing $-9,579) |
| $69 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 2/6 | $3,400 | $3,252 | 50% | 63% | $-221 | -$15,667 | 98.3% | $-32,821 (vs do-nothing $-6,876) |
| $68 | 17d | 11 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 3/6 | $2,224 | $2,062 | 49% | 65% | $-71 | -$23,050 | 144.7% | $-35,809 (vs do-nothing $-9,864) |
| $68 | 10d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.45 | 2/6 | $2,070 | $1,922 | 47% | 64% | $-9 | -$15,517 | 97.4% | $-32,671 (vs do-nothing $-6,726) |
| $68 | 3d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 1/6 | $2,150 | $2,016 | 42% | 59% | $-210 | -$7,888 | 49.5% | $-29,438 (vs do-nothing $-3,493) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.