FORTRESS FIGHT: RKLB @ $92.01

BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $146.02 | 6 contracts (600 sh) | 2026-07-07 15:04 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

RKLB @ $92.01 UNDERWATER $49.54 (35.0% below BE SS)

6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $146.02 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $115 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $75.947/sh)

SP: $135 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $49.982/sh)

HP: $45 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.597/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$69,930	(ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600
Normal income ref	$8,513/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$271/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-33,834	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,256/mo

HEDGE COVER
$271/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$8,513/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $15,930

ML VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $69,930

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $146.02 (probe: $145C 17d) brings only $159/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; CC-SS ratchets down as premium accrues.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 28 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $138.60 (+51%) · daily UBB $118.63 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $105 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 91%, breach 9%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,256/mo); it brings $4,450/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 6 × $101/3d for $9,360/mo, but breach risk rises to 16% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 6 × $125/3d (99+% survival, $300/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $20,067 (126% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $142, recoverable in 2.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-28,215 and cuts bleed by $226/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 6 contracts. 🎯 marks the recommendation, the safest strike that still clears the income floor (50% of normal), shown first; it hands off to the 🛡 safe-yield rung when that rung buys meaningful survival for little income. 🛡 safe yield inverts the objective (survival pinned ≥90%, max income available there, all contracts); then 33%, 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $105 (primary), 91% survival, breach 9%, $4,450/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $109 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 96% (breach 9% → 4%) for $1,330/mo less (30% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

RKLB spot $92.01

Rung	Sell	Expiry	DTE	OTM	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Δ vs pick	Cap give-up
cover hedge	6 × $125	10 Jul	3d	35.9%	99+%	0%	$300	-$4,150	$12,584
33% normal	6 × $109	10 Jul	3d	18.5%	96%	4%	$3,120	-$1,330	$21,902
🎯 50% normal	5 × $105	10 Jul	3d	14.1%	91%	9%	$4,450	—	$20,067
🛡 safe yield	6 × $105	10 Jul	3d	14.1%	91%	9%	$5,340	+$890	$24,080
100% normal	6 × $101	10 Jul	3d	9.8%	84%	16%	$9,360	+$4,910	$26,078
📅 next weekly	6 × $104	17 Jul	10d	13.0%	80%	20%	$4,842	+$392	$23,600

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on RKLB are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$105, 14.1% OTM, 91% surv

Sell 5 × $105 14.1% OTM over spot $92.01 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid)

= $445 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,450/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $105)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $105.93)

93%

EV / mo

+$3,298

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.2-4.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,720

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,570

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$120 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $4.16–$8.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 278 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $109 (overshoots $3.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$105	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.87/sh	+$937 cycle +$1,382 [+$225…+$1,120] · 81% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$112	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.40/sh	+$699 cycle +$1,144 [-$321…+$833] · 65% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$111	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.29/sh	+$145 cycle +$590 [-$791…+$241] · 40% credit	77% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$116	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.12/sh	+$60 cycle +$505 [-$1,149…+$143] · 33% credit	79% surv 73%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$120	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.86/sh	-$428 cycle +$17 [-$1,817…-$388] · 8% credit	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $445 debit $428 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,976/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,450/mo
vs 50% target ($4,256/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($8,513/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,224/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $105 is $41 below CC-SS $146.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,067
… as % of IC ($15,930)	126.0%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	28.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-28,215

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.89 collected) or spot ≥ $105.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $104-105.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $105.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$105.00 (1.6σ)	$445	$-25,237	+$8,597	+$370
+2.5%	$107.62 (1.9σ)	$-867	$-24,905	+$8,929	-$942
+5%	$110.25 (2.2σ)	$-2,180	$-24,573	+$9,261	-$2,255
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.0σ)	$-17,830	$-20,772	+$13,062	-$17,130

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,834

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,834

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$20,067

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$587

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,654 (+$13,180 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,130, the opportunity cost of earning $4,450/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,355, position total $-20,990 (+$12,844 vs today)

🛡 safe yield · sell 6×$105, 14.1% OTM, 91% surv

Sell 6 × $105 14.1% OTM over spot $92.01 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.93 mid)

= $534 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,340/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $105)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $105.93)

93%

EV / mo

+$3,958

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-4.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,469

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,884

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$120 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.70/sh now → $4.03 mid-life (likely $4.16–$7.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 308 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $108 (overshoots $3.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$105	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.87/sh	+$1,124 cycle +$1,658 [+$531…+$1,346] · 86% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$113	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.14/sh	+$687 cycle +$1,221 [-$208…+$851] · 67% credit	76% surv 68%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$111	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.29/sh	+$174 cycle +$708 [-$618…+$294] · 43% credit	77% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$116	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.12/sh	+$72 cycle +$606 [-$987…+$179] · 33% credit	79% surv 73%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$120	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.86/sh	-$514 cycle +$20 [-$1,754…-$460] · 9% credit	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $534 debit $514 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $3,571/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,340/mo
vs 50% target ($4,256/mo)	+25%
vs normal income ($8,513/mo)	63% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,069/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $105 is $41 below CC-SS $146.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$24,080
… as % of IC ($15,930)	151.2%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	34.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-33,858

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $104-105.93	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $105.93	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$105.00 (1.6σ)	$534	$-25,163	+$8,671	+$444
+2.5%	$107.62 (1.9σ)	$-1,041	$-25,094	+$8,740	-$1,131
+5%	$110.25 (2.2σ)	$-2,616	$-25,024	+$8,810	-$2,706
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.0σ)	$-21,396	$-24,198	+$9,636	-$20,556

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,834

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,834

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $105): -$24,080

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,080 (+$9,754 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,556, the opportunity cost of earning $5,340/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,626, position total $-24,276 (+$9,558 vs today)

33% normal · sell 6×$109, 18.5% OTM, 96% surv

Sell 6 × $109 18.5% OTM over spot $92.01 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.55 mid)

= $312 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,120/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $109)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $109.55)

96%

EV / mo

+$2,594

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.7] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,837

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,198

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$117 @ 79% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $5.92/sh now → $4.18 mid-life (likely $3.84–$7.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 116 simulated challenges: the $109 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $112 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$109	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.83/sh	+$1,098 cycle +$1,410 [+$497…+$1,497] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$117	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.13/sh	+$679 cycle +$991 [-$313…+$1,010] · 66% credit	76% surv 68%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$115	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.26/sh	+$155 cycle +$467 [-$753…+$423] · 53% credit	77% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$120	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.09/sh	+$56 cycle +$368 [-$1,130…+$358] · 46% credit	78% surv 73%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$117	17 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.40/sh	-$241 cycle +$71 [-$1,314…-$18] · 25% credit	79% surv 72%
budget: banked $312 debit $241 (77% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$71 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $8,508/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,120/mo
vs 50% target ($4,256/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($8,513/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,849/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $109 is $37 below CC-SS $146.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$21,902
… as % of IC ($15,930)	137.5%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	31.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.6 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-33,852

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $109.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $109)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $107.91	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $108-109.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $109.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$109.00 (2.1σ)	$312	$-22,879	+$10,955	+$222
+2.5%	$111.72 (2.4σ)	$-1,323	$-22,808	+$11,026	-$1,413
+5%	$114.45 (2.7σ)	$-2,958	$-22,736	+$11,098	-$3,048
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.0σ)	$-19,218	$-22,020	+$11,814	-$18,378

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,834

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,834

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $109): -$21,902

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,902 (+$11,932 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,378, the opportunity cost of earning $3,120/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,448, position total $-22,098 (+$11,736 vs today)

100% normal · sell 6×$101, 9.8% OTM, 84% surv

Sell 6 × $101 9.8% OTM over spot $92.01 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.65 mid)

= $936 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,360/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $101)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $102.65)

87%

EV / mo

+$5,937

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.2-4.9] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~10.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,521

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,390

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$119 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $5.48/sh now → $3.88 mid-life (likely $4.09–$7.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 640 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $104 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$101	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.91/sh	+$1,145 cycle +$2,081 [+$356…+$1,324] · 85% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$108	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.40/sh	+$840 cycle +$1,776 [-$267…+$949] · 66% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$107	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.31/sh	+$188 cycle +$1,124 [-$797…+$261] · 37% credit	77% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$112	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.14/sh	+$82 cycle +$1,018 [-$1,230…+$127] · 30% credit	79% surv 73%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$119	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.27/sh	-$762 cycle +$174 [-$2,300…-$788] · 1% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $936 debit $762 (81% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$174 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $2,932/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$9,360/mo
vs 50% target ($4,256/mo)	+120%
vs normal income ($8,513/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$9,089/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $101 is $45 below CC-SS $146.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,078
… as % of IC ($15,930)	163.7%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	37.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-33,888

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.39/sh (~25% of the $1.56 collected) or spot ≥ $102.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.99	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $100-102.65	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $102.65	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$101.00 (1.1σ)	$936	$-27,267	+$6,567	+$846
+2.5%	$103.52 (1.4σ)	$-579	$-27,200	+$6,634	-$669
+5%	$106.05 (1.7σ)	$-2,094	$-27,133	+$6,701	-$2,184
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.0σ)	$-23,394	$-26,196	+$7,638	-$22,554

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,834

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,834

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $101): -$26,078

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,078 (+$7,756 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,554, the opportunity cost of earning $9,360/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$21,624, position total $-26,274 (+$7,560 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 6×$125, 35.9% OTM, 99+% surv

Sell 6 × $125 35.9% OTM over spot $92.01 10 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid)

= $30 credit for the 3d cycle → $300/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $125.08)

99+%

EV / mo

+$285

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-4.4] median · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,337

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,849

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026)

$131 @ 77% POP

67% survival

Buyback gross: $6.78/sh now → $4.80 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (6 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.57/sh	+$945 cycle +$975	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$131	17 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.04/sh	+$22 cycle +$52	77% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$133	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.97/sh	+$581 cycle +$611	75% surv 67%
SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$300/mo
vs 50% target ($4,256/mo)	-93%
vs normal income ($8,513/mo)	4% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$29/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $125 is $21 below CC-SS $146.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,584
… as % of IC ($15,930)	79.0%
… as % of ML ($69,930)	18.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (6 ct)	$-33,852

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $125.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $123.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $124-125.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $125.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$125.00 (4.0σ)	$30	$-13,139	+$20,695	-$60
+2.5%	$128.12 (4.4σ)	$-1,845	$-13,057	+$20,777	-$1,935
+5%	$131.25 (4.8σ)	$-3,720	$-12,974	+$20,860	-$3,810
SS (= V-bounce)	$141.55 (6.0σ)	$-9,900	$-12,702	+$21,132	-$9,060

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,834

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,834

− CC assignment net of premium (6 × $125): -$12,584

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,584 (+$21,250 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,524 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,060, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $138.60 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,130, position total $-12,780 (+$21,054 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,834 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,524

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$105	3d	10 Jul 2026	$0.89	5/6	$4,450	$4,224	91%	93%	+$3,298	-$20,067	126.0%	$-20,654 (vs do-nothing $-17,130)
$104	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.02	5/6	$5,100	$4,874	90%	91%	+$3,645	-$20,502	128.7%	$-21,089 (vs do-nothing $-17,565)
$103	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.18	4/6	$4,720	$4,539	88%	90%	+$3,256	-$16,737	105.1%	$-17,912 (vs do-nothing $-14,388)
$102	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.34	4/6	$5,360	$5,179	86%	89%	+$3,528	-$17,073	107.2%	$-18,248 (vs do-nothing $-14,724)
$101	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.56	3/6	$4,680	$4,544	84%	87%	+$2,969	-$13,039	81.9%	$-14,801 (vs do-nothing $-11,277)
$100	3d	10 Jul 2026	$1.83	3/6	$5,490	$5,354	81%	86%	+$3,370	-$13,258	83.2%	$-15,020 (vs do-nothing $-11,496)
$105	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.44	6/6	$4,392	$4,121	81%	85%	+$2,081	-$23,150	145.3%	$-23,150 (vs do-nothing $-19,626)
$104	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.69	6/6	$4,842	$4,571	80%	84%	+$2,246	-$23,600	148.1%	$-23,600 (vs do-nothing $-20,076)
$99	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.06	3/6	$6,180	$6,044	78%	84%	+$3,571	-$13,489	84.7%	$-15,251 (vs do-nothing $-11,727)
$103	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.90	5/6	$4,350	$4,124	78%	83%	+$1,924	-$20,062	125.9%	$-20,649 (vs do-nothing $-17,125)
$102	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.15	5/6	$4,725	$4,499	76%	82%	+$2,008	-$20,437	128.3%	$-21,024 (vs do-nothing $-17,500)
$98	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.33	2/6	$4,660	$4,569	75%	82%	+$2,532	-$9,139	57.4%	$-11,488 (vs do-nothing $-7,964)
$101	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	5/6	$5,025	$4,799	74%	80%	+$1,987	-$20,837	130.8%	$-21,424 (vs do-nothing $-17,900)

Show 24 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$100	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/6	$4,500	$4,319	72%	79%	+$1,786	-$16,909	106.1%	$-18,084 (vs do-nothing $-14,560)
$97	3d	10 Jul 2026	$2.55	2/6	$5,100	$5,009	72%	80%	+$2,513	-$9,295	58.3%	$-11,644 (vs do-nothing $-8,120)
$99	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.90	4/6	$4,680	$4,499	70%	78%	+$1,655	-$17,249	108.3%	$-18,424 (vs do-nothing $-14,900)
$100	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/6	$4,412	$4,186	69%	77%	+$1,250	-$20,512	128.8%	$-21,099 (vs do-nothing $-17,575)
$96	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.00	2/6	$6,000	$5,909	68%	79%	+$2,877	-$9,405	59.0%	$-11,754 (vs do-nothing $-8,230)
$98	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.40	4/6	$5,280	$5,099	68%	77%	+$1,914	-$17,449	109.5%	$-18,624 (vs do-nothing $-15,100)
$99	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	5/6	$4,632	$4,406	67%	77%	+$1,209	-$20,887	131.1%	$-21,474 (vs do-nothing $-17,950)
$98	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	5/6	$5,118	$4,891	66%	76%	+$1,415	-$21,112	132.5%	$-21,699 (vs do-nothing $-18,175)
$97	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/6	$5,520	$5,339	66%	76%	+$1,782	-$17,769	111.5%	$-18,944 (vs do-nothing $-15,420)
$95	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/6	$6,700	$6,609	65%	77%	+$2,955	-$9,535	59.9%	$-11,884 (vs do-nothing $-8,360)
$97	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.05	4/6	$4,271	$4,089	64%	75%	+$1,070	-$17,189	107.9%	$-18,364 (vs do-nothing $-14,840)
$96	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.95	3/6	$4,455	$4,319	63%	75%	+$1,347	-$13,522	84.9%	$-15,284 (vs do-nothing $-11,760)
$96	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/6	$4,412	$4,231	62%	73%	+$957	-$17,509	109.9%	$-18,684 (vs do-nothing $-15,160)
$95	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/6	$5,040	$4,904	61%	74%	+$1,602	-$13,627	85.5%	$-15,389 (vs do-nothing $-11,865)
$94	3d	10 Jul 2026	$3.80	2/6	$7,600	$7,509	60%	75%	+$3,142	-$9,645	60.5%	$-11,994 (vs do-nothing $-8,470)
$95	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.05	4/6	$4,976	$4,795	60%	73%	+$1,252	-$17,589	110.4%	$-18,764 (vs do-nothing $-15,240)
$94	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.95	3/6	$5,355	$5,219	58%	72%	+$1,560	-$13,822	86.8%	$-15,584 (vs do-nothing $-12,060)
$94	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	4/6	$5,224	$5,042	58%	72%	+$1,213	-$17,849	112.0%	$-19,024 (vs do-nothing $-15,500)
$93	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.30	1/6	$4,300	$4,254	56%	73%	+$1,666	-$4,872	30.6%	$-7,809 (vs do-nothing $-4,285)
$93	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.00	4/6	$5,647	$5,466	56%	71%	+$1,334	-$18,009	113.1%	$-19,184 (vs do-nothing $-15,660)
$92	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.05	3/6	$4,262	$4,126	54%	70%	+$787	-$13,792	86.6%	$-15,554 (vs do-nothing $-12,030)
$91	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.55	3/6	$4,526	$4,390	52%	70%	+$798	-$13,942	87.5%	$-15,704 (vs do-nothing $-12,180)
$92	3d	10 Jul 2026	$4.75	1/6	$4,750	$4,704	52%	72%	+$1,659	-$4,927	30.9%	$-7,864 (vs do-nothing $-4,340)
$91	3d	10 Jul 2026	$5.15	1/6	$5,150	$5,104	48%	70%	+$1,550	-$4,987	31.3%	$-7,924 (vs do-nothing $-4,400)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 15:04