6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $146.59 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $9,409/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $263/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-41,778 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 6 × $88.50 | 92% | $4,770 | $2,737 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 6 × $86 | 75% | $4,827 | $1,483 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 17 Jul | 4d | 32.7% | 99+% | 0% | $40 | $300 | -$4,470 | $20,754 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 32.7% OTM over spot $79.15 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.09 mid) = $40 credit for the 4d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $105.09) 99+% EV / mo +$298 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.5 mo [2.3-6.6] median · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,022 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,605 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $109 @ 75% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.48/sh now → $5.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $42 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $105.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$20,754 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$658 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,773 (+$15,005 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,465, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $91 | 17 Jul | 4d | 15.0% | 96% | 9% | $420 | $3,150 | -$1,620 | $32,932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $91 15.0% OTM over spot $79.15 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.75 mid) = $420 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $91.75) 96% EV / mo +$2,883 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.1 mo [3.0-6.7] median · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,861 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,331 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $99 @ 80% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.48/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $3.85–$7.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 127 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $93 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $56 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $91.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $91): -$32,932 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,294 (+$3,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,986, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $88.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.8% | 92% | 10% | $636 | $4,770 | — | $34,216 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $88.50 11.8% OTM over spot $79.15 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.10 mid) = $636 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,770/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $89.61) 94% EV / mo +$4,127 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.8-6.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.4 mo) · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,625 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,039 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 82% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.30/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $3.73–$7.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 304 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88.50 is $58 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $89.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $88.50): -$34,216 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,578 (+$2,200 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,270, the opportunity cost of earning $4,770/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $83.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.5% | 76% | 50% | $1,392 | $10,440 | +$5,670 | $36,460 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $83.50 5.5% OTM over spot $79.15 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.49 mid) = $1,392 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $85.99) 86% EV / mo +$7,260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.3-6.4] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.4 mo) · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 17% without) · ~19.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,865 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,132 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.95/sh now → $4.21 mid-life (likely $4.68–$7.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,026 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $85 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83.50 is $63 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.32 collected) or spot ≥ $85.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $83.50): -$36,460 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,822 ($-44 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,514, the opportunity cost of earning $10,440/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $114 | 24 Jul | 11d | 44.0% | 99% | 2% | $100 | $273 | -$4,555 | $16,194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $114 44.0% OTM over spot $79.15 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.23 mid) = $100 credit for the 11d cycle → $273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $114.23) 99% EV / mo +$247 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.5-6.3] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 25% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-814 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,058 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $115 @ 73% POP 55% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.93/sh now → $6.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $33 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $114.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $114): -$16,194 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$658 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,213 (+$19,565 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,905, the opportunity cost of earning $273/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $95 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.0% | 91% | 19% | $762 | $2,078 | -$2,749 | $30,190 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $95 20.0% OTM over spot $79.15 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.32 mid) = $762 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,078/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $96.33) 92% EV / mo +$1,532 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.2-7.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,386 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,396 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $101 @ 79% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.44/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $4.28–$7.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $97 (overshoots $2.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $52 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $96.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $95): -$30,190 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,552 (+$6,226 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,244, the opportunity cost of earning $2,078/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $90 | 24 Jul | 11d | 13.7% | 84% | 34% | $1,272 | $3,469 | -$1,358 | $32,680 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 13.7% OTM over spot $79.15 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.18 mid) = $1,272 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,469/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $92.18) 87% EV / mo +$2,247 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [2.9-6.8] median, 0.8 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 24% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 14% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,854 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,719 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 81% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.05/sh now → $4.99 mid-life (likely $4.99–$7.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 812 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $92 (overshoots $2.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $57 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.12 collected) or spot ≥ $92.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$32,680 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,042 (+$3,736 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,734, the opportunity cost of earning $3,469/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $86 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.7% | 75% | 43% | $1,770 | $4,827 | — | $34,582 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $86 8.7% OTM over spot $79.15 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.48 mid) = $1,770 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,827/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $89.47) 83% EV / mo +$2,543 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [3.1-6.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.8 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~9.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,187 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,088 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.73/sh now → $4.76 mid-life (likely $5.23–$7.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,287 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $88 (overshoots $2.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $61 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.74/sh (~25% of the $2.95 collected) or spot ≥ $89.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$34,582 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,944 (+$1,834 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,636, the opportunity cost of earning $4,827/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $79 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.2% | 52% | 99+% | $3,540 | $9,655 | +$4,827 | $37,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 0.2% ITM over spot $79.15 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.10 mid) = $3,540 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,655/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $85.10) 72% EV / mo +$3,490 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$914 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $94 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.19/sh now → $4.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $68 below CC-SS $146.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.48/sh (~25% of the $5.90 collected) or spot ≥ $85.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $146.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,416 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$37,012 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-42,374 ($-596 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,308 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,066, the opportunity cost of earning $9,655/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$36,416 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,308
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 6/6 | $4,770 | $4,507 | 92% | 94% | +$4,127 | -$34,216 | 214.8% | $-39,578 (vs do-nothing $-30,270) |
| $87.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 5/6 | $4,725 | $4,463 | 90% | 93% | +$3,972 | -$28,914 | 181.5% | $-34,933 (vs do-nothing $-25,625) |
| $86.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 5/6 | $5,512 | $5,251 | 87% | 91% | +$4,464 | -$29,309 | 184.0% | $-35,328 (vs do-nothing $-26,020) |
| $85 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 4/6 | $5,850 | $5,590 | 82% | 88% | +$4,498 | -$23,855 | 149.7% | $-30,532 (vs do-nothing $-21,224) |
| $83.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 3/6 | $5,220 | $4,962 | 76% | 86% | +$3,630 | -$18,230 | 114.4% | $-25,565 (vs do-nothing $-16,257) |
| $86 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 6/6 | $4,827 | $4,564 | 75% | 83% | +$2,543 | -$34,582 | 217.1% | $-39,944 (vs do-nothing $-30,636) |
| $85 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/6 | $4,773 | $4,511 | 72% | 81% | +$2,558 | -$29,044 | 182.3% | $-35,063 (vs do-nothing $-25,755) |
| $82.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 3/6 | $6,255 | $5,997 | 71% | 84% | +$4,144 | -$18,392 | 115.5% | $-25,727 (vs do-nothing $-16,419) |
| $84 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/6 | $4,909 | $4,647 | 69% | 79% | +$2,339 | -$29,494 | 185.1% | $-35,513 (vs do-nothing $-26,205) |
| $85 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 6/6 | $4,750 | $4,487 | 68% | 78% | +$2,001 | -$34,102 | 214.1% | $-39,464 (vs do-nothing $-30,156) |
| $84 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 6/6 | $4,750 | $4,487 | 66% | 78% | +$1,697 | -$34,702 | 217.8% | $-40,064 (vs do-nothing $-30,756) |
| $83 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/6 | $5,318 | $5,057 | 66% | 78% | +$2,345 | -$29,844 | 187.3% | $-35,863 (vs do-nothing $-26,555) |
| $81.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 2/6 | $4,725 | $4,468 | 66% | 81% | +$2,884 | -$12,387 | 77.8% | $-20,380 (vs do-nothing $-11,072) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 6/6 | $5,500 | $5,237 | 64% | 76% | +$2,115 | -$34,852 | 218.8% | $-40,214 (vs do-nothing $-30,906) |
| $82 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/6 | $4,964 | $4,704 | 63% | 77% | +$2,221 | -$24,015 | 150.8% | $-30,692 (vs do-nothing $-21,384) |
| $82 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 6/6 | $5,400 | $5,137 | 61% | 76% | +$1,880 | -$35,512 | 222.9% | $-40,874 (vs do-nothing $-31,566) |
| $81 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/6 | $5,455 | $5,195 | 59% | 75% | +$2,304 | -$24,235 | 152.1% | $-30,912 (vs do-nothing $-21,604) |
| $81 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 5/6 | $5,333 | $5,072 | 59% | 75% | +$2,072 | -$29,594 | 185.8% | $-35,613 (vs do-nothing $-26,305) |
| $80 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/6 | $5,925 | $5,668 | 57% | 78% | +$3,247 | -$12,527 | 78.6% | $-20,520 (vs do-nothing $-11,212) |
| $80 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 5/6 | $5,750 | $5,488 | 56% | 74% | +$2,134 | -$29,844 | 187.3% | $-35,863 (vs do-nothing $-26,555) |
| $80 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 4/6 | $5,836 | $5,576 | 56% | 74% | +$2,231 | -$24,495 | 153.8% | $-31,172 (vs do-nothing $-21,864) |
| $79 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/6 | $4,800 | $4,540 | 53% | 73% | +$1,452 | -$24,155 | 151.6% | $-30,832 (vs do-nothing $-21,524) |
| $79 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/6 | $4,827 | $4,569 | 52% | 72% | +$1,745 | -$18,506 | 116.2% | $-25,841 (vs do-nothing $-16,533) |
| $79 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/6 | $6,675 | $6,418 | 51% | 79% | +$3,303 | -$12,627 | 79.3% | $-20,620 (vs do-nothing $-11,312) |
| $78 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 4/6 | $5,233 | $4,973 | 51% | 71% | +$1,558 | -$24,295 | 152.5% | $-30,972 (vs do-nothing $-21,664) |
| $78 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/6 | $4,991 | $4,733 | 49% | 71% | +$1,494 | -$18,746 | 117.7% | $-26,081 (vs do-nothing $-16,773) |
| $78 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 2/6 | $7,650 | $7,393 | 44% | 77% | +$3,471 | -$12,697 | 79.7% | $-20,690 (vs do-nothing $-11,382) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.