6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $145.79 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $9,655/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $263/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-41,778 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 6 × $87.50 | 91% | $5,670 | $3,253 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 6 × $86 | 76% | $4,827 | $1,512 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 17 Jul | 4d | 33.7% | 99+% | 0% | $40 | $300 | -$5,370 | $20,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 33.7% OTM over spot $78.56 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.09 mid) = $40 credit for the 4d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $105.09) 99+% EV / mo +$298 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.1-6.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,091 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,944 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $109 @ 76% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.44/sh now → $5.97 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $41 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $105.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$20,355 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$578 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,921 (+$20,857 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,465, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $90 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.6% | 95% | 10% | $492 | $3,690 | -$1,980 | $32,983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 14.6% OTM over spot $78.56 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.86 mid) = $492 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $90.86) 96% EV / mo +$3,400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [2.8-6.5] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.1 mo) · 27% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,410 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,578 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 80% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.23/sh now → $5.12 mid-life (likely $4.25–$8.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 154 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $92 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $56 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $90.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$32,983 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,970 (+$8,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,514, the opportunity cost of earning $3,690/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $87.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.4% | 91% | 11% | $756 | $5,670 | — | $34,219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $87.50 11.4% OTM over spot $78.56 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.34 mid) = $756 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,670/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $88.84) 94% EV / mo +$4,963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.2-6.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.8 mo) · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~6.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,492 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,228 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $96 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $4.63–$8.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $90 (overshoots $2.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87.50 is $58 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.26 collected) or spot ≥ $88.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $87.50): -$34,219 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,206 (+$7,572 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,750, the opportunity cost of earning $5,670/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $83.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.3% | 79% | 44% | $1,392 | $10,440 | +$4,770 | $35,983 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $83.50 6.3% OTM over spot $78.56 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.49 mid) = $1,392 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $83.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $85.99) 88% EV / mo +$7,828 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [2.9-6.2] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~16.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,736 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,456 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $96 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.71/sh now → $4.75 mid-life (likely $5.13–$8.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 904 simulated challenges: the $84 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $86 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $83.50 is $62 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.32 collected) or spot ≥ $85.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $84)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $83.50): -$35,983 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,970 (+$5,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,514, the opportunity cost of earning $10,440/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $114 | 24 Jul | 11d | 45.1% | 99% | 2% | $100 | $273 | -$4,555 | $15,795 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $114 45.1% OTM over spot $78.56 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.23 mid) = $100 credit for the 11d cycle → $273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $114.23) 99% EV / mo +$251 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.4-6.0] median · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-977 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,294 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $114 @ 72% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.60/sh now → $6.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $32 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $114.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $114): -$15,795 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$578 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,361 (+$25,417 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,905, the opportunity cost of earning $273/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $95 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.9% | 92% | 17% | $762 | $2,078 | -$2,749 | $29,713 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $95 20.9% OTM over spot $78.56 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.32 mid) = $762 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,078/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $96.33) 93% EV / mo +$1,604 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.6-6.7] median · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,523 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,632 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $99 @ 77% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.00/sh now → $5.66 mid-life (likely $4.36–$7.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $97 (overshoots $2.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $51 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $96.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $95): -$29,713 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,700 (+$12,078 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,244, the opportunity cost of earning $2,078/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 6 × $90 | 24 Jul | 11d | 14.6% | 85% | 32% | $1,272 | $3,469 | -$1,358 | $32,203 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 14.6% OTM over spot $78.56 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.18 mid) = $1,272 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,469/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $92.18) 88% EV / mo +$2,392 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.9-6.1] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 18% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,700 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,944 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $97 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.58/sh now → $5.36 mid-life (likely $4.94–$7.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 736 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $92 (overshoots $2.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $56 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.12 collected) or spot ≥ $92.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$32,203 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,190 (+$9,588 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,734, the opportunity cost of earning $3,469/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $86 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.5% | 76% | 40% | $1,770 | $4,827 | — | $34,105 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $86 9.5% OTM over spot $78.56 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.48 mid) = $1,770 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,827/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $86) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $89.47) 84% EV / mo +$2,785 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.4-6.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.3 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,136 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,303 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $96 @ 85% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.24/sh now → $5.12 mid-life (likely $5.46–$8.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,187 simulated challenges: the $86 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $88 (overshoots $2.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $86 is $60 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.74/sh (~25% of the $2.95 collected) or spot ≥ $89.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $86)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $86): -$34,105 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,092 (+$7,686 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,636, the opportunity cost of earning $4,827/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $79 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.6% | 54% | 96% | $3,540 | $9,655 | +$4,827 | $36,535 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $79 0.6% OTM over spot $78.56 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.10 mid) = $3,540 credit for the 11d cycle → $9,655/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $79) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $85.10) 74% EV / mo +$3,990 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.9-6.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.7 mo) · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~32.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,719 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$717 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $94 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.70 mid-life (likely $6.59–$9.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,354 simulated challenges: the $79 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $81 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $79 is $67 below CC-SS $145.79: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.48/sh (~25% of the $5.90 collected) or spot ≥ $85.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $79)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $145.79, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,791 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $79): -$36,535 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,522 (+$5,256 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,456 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,066, the opportunity cost of earning $9,655/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.036 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$41,791 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,456
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $87.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 6/6 | $5,670 | $5,407 | 91% | 94% | +$4,963 | -$34,219 | 214.8% | $-34,206 (vs do-nothing $-30,750) |
| $86.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 5/6 | $5,512 | $5,251 | 89% | 92% | +$4,682 | -$28,910 | 181.5% | $-29,476 (vs do-nothing $-26,020) |
| $85 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 4/6 | $5,850 | $5,590 | 84% | 90% | +$4,760 | -$23,536 | 147.7% | $-24,680 (vs do-nothing $-21,224) |
| $83.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 3/6 | $5,220 | $4,962 | 79% | 88% | +$3,914 | -$17,991 | 112.9% | $-19,713 (vs do-nothing $-16,257) |
| $86 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 6/6 | $4,827 | $4,564 | 76% | 84% | +$2,785 | -$34,105 | 214.1% | $-34,092 (vs do-nothing $-30,636) |
| $82.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 3/6 | $6,255 | $5,997 | 74% | 86% | +$4,499 | -$18,153 | 114.0% | $-19,875 (vs do-nothing $-16,419) |
| $85 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 6/6 | $5,727 | $5,464 | 74% | 82% | +$3,342 | -$34,375 | 215.8% | $-34,362 (vs do-nothing $-30,906) |
| $84 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/6 | $4,909 | $4,647 | 71% | 81% | +$2,594 | -$29,095 | 182.6% | $-29,661 (vs do-nothing $-26,205) |
| $81.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 3/6 | $7,088 | $6,829 | 69% | 84% | +$4,762 | -$18,342 | 115.1% | $-20,064 (vs do-nothing $-16,608) |
| $83 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/6 | $5,318 | $5,057 | 68% | 80% | +$2,629 | -$29,445 | 184.8% | $-30,011 (vs do-nothing $-26,555) |
| $83 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 6/6 | $5,500 | $5,237 | 65% | 77% | +$2,352 | -$34,375 | 215.8% | $-34,362 (vs do-nothing $-30,906) |
| $82 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/6 | $4,964 | $4,704 | 65% | 78% | +$2,473 | -$23,696 | 148.8% | $-24,840 (vs do-nothing $-21,384) |
| $82 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 6/6 | $5,400 | $5,137 | 63% | 76% | +$1,908 | -$35,035 | 219.9% | $-35,022 (vs do-nothing $-31,566) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/6 | $5,455 | $5,195 | 61% | 77% | +$2,582 | -$23,916 | 150.1% | $-25,060 (vs do-nothing $-21,604) |
| $80 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/6 | $5,925 | $5,668 | 60% | 81% | +$3,628 | -$12,368 | 77.6% | $-14,668 (vs do-nothing $-11,212) |
| $81 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 5/6 | $5,333 | $5,072 | 60% | 75% | +$2,111 | -$29,195 | 183.3% | $-29,761 (vs do-nothing $-26,305) |
| $80 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 4/6 | $5,836 | $5,576 | 58% | 76% | +$2,536 | -$24,176 | 151.8% | $-25,320 (vs do-nothing $-21,864) |
| $80 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 5/6 | $5,750 | $5,488 | 58% | 74% | +$2,190 | -$29,445 | 184.8% | $-30,011 (vs do-nothing $-26,555) |
| $79 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/6 | $6,000 | $5,738 | 55% | 74% | +$2,074 | -$29,795 | 187.0% | $-30,361 (vs do-nothing $-26,905) |
| $79 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/6 | $6,675 | $6,418 | 54% | 81% | +$3,748 | -$12,468 | 78.3% | $-14,768 (vs do-nothing $-11,312) |
| $79 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/6 | $4,827 | $4,569 | 54% | 74% | +$1,995 | -$18,267 | 114.7% | $-19,989 (vs do-nothing $-16,533) |
| $78 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 4/6 | $5,233 | $4,973 | 52% | 72% | +$1,778 | -$23,976 | 150.5% | $-25,120 (vs do-nothing $-21,664) |
| $78 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/6 | $4,991 | $4,733 | 51% | 72% | +$1,764 | -$18,507 | 116.2% | $-20,229 (vs do-nothing $-16,773) |
| $77 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 4/6 | $4,833 | $4,573 | 49% | 71% | +$1,040 | -$24,616 | 154.5% | $-25,760 (vs do-nothing $-22,304) |
| $78 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 2/6 | $7,650 | $7,393 | 48% | 80% | +$3,981 | -$12,538 | 78.7% | $-14,838 (vs do-nothing $-11,382) |
| $77 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/6 | $5,727 | $5,469 | 47% | 73% | +$2,069 | -$18,537 | 116.4% | $-20,259 (vs do-nothing $-16,803) |
| $77 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/6 | $6,675 | $6,418 | 42% | 73% | +$2,151 | -$12,868 | 80.8% | $-15,168 (vs do-nothing $-11,712) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.