6 contracts (600 sh) | BE SS: $141.55 | CC-SS: $147.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $69,930 | (ND $26.55 + SW $90) x 600 |
| Normal income ref | $8,755/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $263/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-41,778 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6x $101C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $1.23 | $738 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 6 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 6 × $88.50 | 90% | $4,770 | $2,897 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 6 × $87 | 75% | $4,418 | $1,201 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $105 | 17 Jul | 4d | 31.5% | 99+% | 0% | $40 | $300 | -$4,470 | $20,986 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 31.5% OTM over spot $79.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.09 mid) = $40 credit for the 4d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $105.09) 99+% EV / mo +$296 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.3-6.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,911 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,935 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $113 @ 79% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.59/sh now → $3.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $42 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $105.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$20,986 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$704 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,711 (+$20,067 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,465, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,555, position total $-22,083 (+$19,695 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $91 | 17 Jul | 4d | 13.9% | 94% | 11% | $420 | $3,150 | -$1,620 | $33,212 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $91 13.9% OTM over spot $79.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.75 mid) = $420 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $91) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $91.75) 95% EV / mo +$2,777 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.4-6.9] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.3 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,853 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,634 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $102 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.84/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $2.66–$5.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 176 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $93 (overshoots $1.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $91 is $56 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $91.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $91): -$33,212 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,232 (+$8,546 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,986, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,894, position total $-33,423 (+$8,355 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $90 | 17 Jul | 4d | 12.7% | 93% | 15% | $492 | $3,690 | -$1,080 | $33,740 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $90 12.7% OTM over spot $79.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.86 mid) = $492 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $90.86) 94% EV / mo +$3,164 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.3 mo [2.4-5.7] median · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,743 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,539 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $101 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.79/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $2.84–$5.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 250 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $92 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $57 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $90.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $90): -$33,740 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,760 (+$8,018 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,514, the opportunity cost of earning $3,690/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,422, position total $-33,951 (+$7,827 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $88.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.8% | 90% | 12% | $636 | $4,770 | — | $34,496 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $88.50 10.8% OTM over spot $79.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.10 mid) = $636 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,770/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $88.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $89.61) 92% EV / mo +$3,901 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.4-6.1] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 22% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,609 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,362 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.71/sh now → $3.33 mid-life (likely $3.03–$5.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 375 simulated challenges: the $88 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $91 (overshoots $2.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $88.50 is $59 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.06 collected) or spot ≥ $89.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $88)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $88.50): -$34,496 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,516 (+$7,262 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,270, the opportunity cost of earning $4,770/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,178, position total $-34,707 (+$7,071 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $85 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.4% | 79% | 43% | $1,170 | $8,775 | +$4,005 | $36,062 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $85 6.4% OTM over spot $79.88 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.98 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $85) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $86.98) 86% EV / mo +$6,169 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.8-6.0] median, 0.6 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.8 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~16.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $25,775 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$749 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $104 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.52/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $3.48–$5.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 910 simulated challenges: the $85 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $87 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $85 is $62 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.95 collected) or spot ≥ $86.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $85)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $85): -$36,062 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,082 (+$5,696 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,836, the opportunity cost of earning $8,775/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$30,744, position total $-36,273 (+$5,505 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $114 | 24 Jul | 11d | 42.7% | 99% | 3% | $100 | $273 | -$4,145 | $16,426 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $114 42.7% OTM over spot $79.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.23 mid) = $100 credit for the 11d cycle → $273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $114.23) 99% EV / mo +$241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.1-5.7] median · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-589 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,919 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $115 @ 71% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.54/sh now → $6.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $33 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $114.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $114): -$16,426 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$704 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,151 (+$24,627 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,905, the opportunity cost of earning $273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,995, position total $-17,523 (+$24,255 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 6 × $96 | 24 Jul | 11d | 20.2% | 91% | 19% | $594 | $1,620 | -$2,798 | $30,038 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $96 20.2% OTM over spot $79.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.17 mid) = $594 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $97.17) 92% EV / mo +$1,068 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [3.1-5.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,834 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,457 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $100 @ 75% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.19/sh now → $5.08 mid-life (likely $4.23–$7.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 377 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $98 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $51 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $97.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $96): -$30,038 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,058 (+$11,720 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,812, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$24,720, position total $-30,249 (+$11,529 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $90 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.7% | 82% | 38% | $1,060 | $2,891 | -$1,527 | $27,466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $90 12.7% OTM over spot $79.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.18 mid) = $1,060 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,891/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $92.18) 86% EV / mo +$1,708 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.8-5.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.0 mo) · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,921 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,323 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 81% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.74/sh now → $4.77 mid-life (likely $4.73–$7.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 820 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $92 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $57 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.12 collected) or spot ≥ $92.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $90): -$27,466 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $140): -$704 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,191 (+$13,587 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,945, the opportunity cost of earning $2,891/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,035, position total $-28,563 (+$13,215 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $87 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.9% | 75% | 43% | $1,620 | $4,418 | — | $34,412 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $87 8.9% OTM over spot $79.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.88 mid) = $1,620 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,418/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $89.88) 82% EV / mo +$2,171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.7-5.5] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~9.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,144 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,145 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $98 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.51/sh now → $4.61 mid-life (likely $4.96–$7.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,280 simulated challenges: the $87 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $89 (overshoots $2.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87 is $60 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.70 collected) or spot ≥ $89.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $87)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $87): -$34,412 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,432 (+$7,346 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,186, the opportunity cost of earning $4,418/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$29,094, position total $-34,623 (+$7,155 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 6 × $80 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 53% | 99% | $3,210 | $8,755 | +$4,336 | $37,022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $80 0.2% OTM over spot $79.88 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.62 mid) = $3,210 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,755/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $80) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $85.62) 72% EV / mo +$2,750 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.7-6.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.0 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~35.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,491 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 82% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$668 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $96 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.99/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $6.02–$8.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,452 simulated challenges: the $80 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $82 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $80 is $67 below CC-SS $147.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.34/sh (~25% of the $5.35 collected) or spot ≥ $85.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $80)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $147.05, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-41,778 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$41,758 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $80): -$37,022 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,042 (+$4,736 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,246 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,796, the opportunity cost of earning $8,755/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $138.19 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,704, position total $-37,233 (+$4,545 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.036 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$41,758 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,246
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $88.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 6/6 | $4,770 | $4,507 | 90% | 92% | +$3,901 | -$34,496 | 216.5% | $-34,516 (vs do-nothing $-30,270) |
| $87.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.26 | 5/6 | $4,725 | $4,463 | 87% | 91% | +$3,721 | -$29,146 | 183.0% | $-29,871 (vs do-nothing $-25,625) |
| $86.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 4/6 | $4,410 | $4,150 | 84% | 89% | +$3,308 | -$23,633 | 148.4% | $-25,062 (vs do-nothing $-20,816) |
| $85 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.95 | 3/6 | $4,388 | $4,129 | 79% | 86% | +$3,084 | -$18,031 | 113.2% | $-20,164 (vs do-nothing $-15,918) |
| $87 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 6/6 | $4,418 | $4,155 | 75% | 82% | +$2,171 | -$34,412 | 216.0% | $-34,432 (vs do-nothing $-30,186) |
| $86 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.95 | 6/6 | $4,827 | $4,564 | 73% | 81% | +$2,218 | -$34,862 | 218.8% | $-34,882 (vs do-nothing $-30,636) |
| $83.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 3/6 | $5,220 | $4,962 | 72% | 83% | +$3,221 | -$18,370 | 115.3% | $-20,503 (vs do-nothing $-16,257) |
| $85 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/6 | $4,773 | $4,511 | 70% | 79% | +$2,255 | -$29,276 | 183.8% | $-30,001 (vs do-nothing $-25,755) |
| $86 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 6/6 | $4,400 | $4,137 | 69% | 78% | +$1,684 | -$33,992 | 213.4% | $-34,012 (vs do-nothing $-29,766) |
| $82.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 3/6 | $6,255 | $5,997 | 67% | 81% | +$3,641 | -$18,532 | 116.3% | $-20,665 (vs do-nothing $-16,419) |
| $84 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/6 | $4,909 | $4,647 | 67% | 77% | +$2,001 | -$29,726 | 186.6% | $-30,451 (vs do-nothing $-26,205) |
| $85 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 6/6 | $4,750 | $4,487 | 67% | 77% | +$1,736 | -$34,382 | 215.8% | $-34,402 (vs do-nothing $-30,156) |
| $84 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 6/6 | $4,750 | $4,487 | 64% | 76% | +$1,411 | -$34,982 | 219.6% | $-35,002 (vs do-nothing $-30,756) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/6 | $5,318 | $5,057 | 64% | 76% | +$1,970 | -$30,076 | 188.8% | $-30,801 (vs do-nothing $-26,555) |
| $83 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 5/6 | $4,583 | $4,322 | 62% | 75% | +$1,507 | -$29,276 | 183.8% | $-30,001 (vs do-nothing $-25,755) |
| $81.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 2/6 | $4,725 | $4,468 | 61% | 78% | +$2,478 | -$12,481 | 78.3% | $-15,318 (vs do-nothing $-11,072) |
| $82 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 4/6 | $4,964 | $4,704 | 60% | 75% | +$1,890 | -$24,201 | 151.9% | $-25,630 (vs do-nothing $-21,384) |
| $82 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 5/6 | $4,500 | $4,238 | 59% | 73% | +$1,103 | -$29,826 | 187.2% | $-30,551 (vs do-nothing $-26,305) |
| $81 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 4/6 | $5,455 | $5,195 | 57% | 73% | +$1,940 | -$24,421 | 153.3% | $-25,850 (vs do-nothing $-21,604) |
| $81 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 5/6 | $5,333 | $5,072 | 57% | 72% | +$1,591 | -$29,826 | 187.2% | $-30,551 (vs do-nothing $-26,305) |
| $80 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 4/6 | $4,600 | $4,340 | 54% | 71% | +$1,308 | -$24,061 | 151.0% | $-25,490 (vs do-nothing $-21,244) |
| $80 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 3/6 | $4,377 | $4,119 | 53% | 72% | +$1,375 | -$18,511 | 116.2% | $-20,644 (vs do-nothing $-16,398) |
| $80 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 2/6 | $5,925 | $5,668 | 52% | 75% | +$2,726 | -$12,621 | 79.2% | $-15,458 (vs do-nothing $-11,212) |
| $79 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/6 | $4,800 | $4,540 | 51% | 71% | +$1,187 | -$24,341 | 152.8% | $-25,770 (vs do-nothing $-21,524) |
| $79 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/6 | $4,827 | $4,569 | 50% | 70% | +$1,422 | -$18,646 | 117.0% | $-20,779 (vs do-nothing $-16,533) |
| $79 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/6 | $6,675 | $6,418 | 46% | 75% | +$2,704 | -$12,721 | 79.9% | $-15,558 (vs do-nothing $-11,312) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 6 contracts at the conservative CC.